NIT: Toledo at Michigan odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Toledo at Michigan odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions & best bets.

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The 6-seed Toledo Rockets (27-7) face the 3-seed Michigan Wolverines (17-15) Tuesday in the 1st round of the National Invitational Tournament. Tip from Crisler Arena in Ann Arbor, Mich., is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Toledo vs. Michigan odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Toledo came up short as the top-seed in the Mid-American Conference  Tournament, and failed to secure its first NCAA Tournament bid since 1980.

Still, the Rockets are on a 17-1 SU roll since Jan. 10, while covering 6 of the last 7 games. This is a prolific offense, rolling up 85.7 PPG in the regular season (2nd in the nation). Toledo was also No. 2 in 3-pointer percentage (40.5%), while checking in No. 5 in field-goal percentage (49.6%). Defensively, Toledo was a train wreck, yielding 76.1 PPG, and it was even worse in the MAC tourney with 81.0 PPG allowed in 3 outings.

Michigan limped to the finish line of the regular season with 2 straight OT losses to Indiana and Illinois, and it needed a strong showing in the Big Ten Conference tourney. It didn’t get it, getting bounced 62-50 in the 1st game by Rutgers. That snapped a 5-0 ATS run, while the Under result halted a 3-0 Over streak.

Michigan was a so-so offense in the regular season, going for 73.8 PPG, and it wasn’t great defensively either, allowing 69.6 PPG, which was middle of the pack. One alarming stat is a 70.3% free-throw percentage, which won’t serve Michigan well in potentially close games in the NIT.

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Toledo at Michigan odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 9:41 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Toledo +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Michigan -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Toledo +6.5 (-115) | Michigan -6.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 161.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Toledo at Michigan picks and predictions

Prediction

Toledo 83, Michigan 81

Moneyline

TOLEDO (+210) heads up US 23 to Michigan (-280) on a mission, looking to prove that it deserved an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. Some of these mid-major teams who come up short tend to enter the NIT with a chip on their shoulder, and I think Toledo will be no exception.

The Rockets have a red-hot offense, and it will be a huge test for the defense of the Wolverines. Toledo has scored 78 or more points in 9 consecutive games since Feb. 11, and there is no reason to believe it won’t happen here, either.

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Against the spread

TOLEDO +6.5 (-115) is still a tremendous play catching more than 3 buckets, if you just can’t bring yourself to bet it straight up.

Michigan -6.5 (-105) is not like Toledo, and likely unhappy to be in an NIT game. Sure, it’s nice to be in front of your fans, but the Wolverines are highly disappointed in not making the NCAA Tournament field. A postseason bid in a lower-level tournament doesn’t have the same pizzazz as it does for a mid-major team happy to receive any postseason invitation. Look for the Rockets to come out with more energy.

Over/Under

OVER 161.5 (-110) is a rather big number, but it’s still not enough.

The Over is 5-1 in the last 6 games overall for Toledo, while going 4-1 in the last 5 games on the road, too. Toledo has posted 90 or more points in 11 occasions, while hitting the century mark 4 times this season.

For Michigan, the Over is 5-2 in the last 7 home games, while cashing at a 5-0 clip in the last 5 at home against teams with a winning road mark.

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Toledo at Michigan odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Wednesday’s Toledo Rockets at Michigan Wolverines sports betting odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks, tips and predictions.

The Toledo Rockets (3-2) are in Ann Arbor to play the Michigan Wolverines (4-0) at the Crisler Center at 6 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Toledo-Michigan college basketball betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Toledo at Michigan: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Toledo +800 (bet $100 to win $800) | Michigan -1430 (bet $1430 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Toledo +13.5 (+100) | Michigan -13.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 145.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Toledo at Michigan: Three things to know

  1. Toledo earned its second-straight victory, and fifth consecutive cover, in a 91-74 win over Eastern Michigan Dec. 4.
  2. Michigan has won all four games by double-digits but failed to cover against Oakland despite winning 81-71 in overtime. The Wolverines crushed UCF 80-58 on Dec. 6, because they dominated the glass, outrebounding the Knights 40-24.
  3. The Rockets are filling in last minute as Michigan’s opponent in what was supposed to be an ACC/Big Ten Challenge game against the NC State Wolfpack.

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Toledo at Michigan: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Michigan 81, Toledo 72

Money line (ML)

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE. I cannot talk myself into backing Toledo outright and no way I am laying 14-to-1 to take Michigan.

Against the spread (ATS)

The Wolverines haven’t really gotten after it defensively as much as in prior seasons. Michigan is negative in turnover per game differential and ranks 264th in opponents’ turnovers per play.

Also, the Wolverines don’t close out well enough against threes and are 219th in opponents’ 3-point attempts per game. Toledo shoots the 3-pointer at the 28th-best rate in the nation and is 41st in 3-point shots per game. So even if Michigan comes out and puts it to Toledo, the Rockets can sneak in the backdoor with some late threes.

Finally, the Wolverines were expecting a Power 5 opponent and instead got a Mid-American Conference foe while Toledo will have by far its biggest game of the season against Michigan. I don’t like the idea of backing a double-digit favorite against a mid-major team without its home crowd and questionable motivation.

I lean TOLEDO +13.5 (+100) for a half-unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

Keeping along the lines of Toledo’s all-in effort, don’t we expect the Rockets to chuck threes in an effort to compensate for lacking talent and effort? The Over looks good if the Rockets are firing threes and Michigan doesn’t really defend the three well.

Plus, Michigan should be able to finish in the paint pretty easily. The Wolverines are 17th in 2-point percentage and the Rockets are 198th in opponents’ 2-point percentage.

The Over is juiced up because the market is backing it. According to Pregame.com, 81% of the money bet and 89% of the wagers placed are on the Over.

Usually, I’d like to fade the public in high-profile matchups but what squares are betting an Over in Toledo-Michigan on a Wednesday evening? Let’s roll with the market and TAKE OVER 145.5 (-120) for 1 unit.

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