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The 6-seed Toledo Rockets (27-7) face the 3-seed Michigan Wolverines (17-15) Tuesday in the 1st round of the National Invitational Tournament. Tip from Crisler Arena in Ann Arbor, Mich., is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Toledo vs. Michigan odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Toledo came up short as the top-seed in the Mid-American Conference Tournament, and failed to secure its first NCAA Tournament bid since 1980.
Still, the Rockets are on a 17-1 SU roll since Jan. 10, while covering 6 of the last 7 games. This is a prolific offense, rolling up 85.7 PPG in the regular season (2nd in the nation). Toledo was also No. 2 in 3-pointer percentage (40.5%), while checking in No. 5 in field-goal percentage (49.6%). Defensively, Toledo was a train wreck, yielding 76.1 PPG, and it was even worse in the MAC tourney with 81.0 PPG allowed in 3 outings.
Michigan limped to the finish line of the regular season with 2 straight OT losses to Indiana and Illinois, and it needed a strong showing in the Big Ten Conference tourney. It didn’t get it, getting bounced 62-50 in the 1st game by Rutgers. That snapped a 5-0 ATS run, while the Under result halted a 3-0 Over streak.
Michigan was a so-so offense in the regular season, going for 73.8 PPG, and it wasn’t great defensively either, allowing 69.6 PPG, which was middle of the pack. One alarming stat is a 70.3% free-throw percentage, which won’t serve Michigan well in potentially close games in the NIT.
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Toledo at Michigan odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 9:41 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Toledo +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Michigan -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Toledo +6.5 (-115) | Michigan -6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 161.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Toledo at Michigan picks and predictions
Prediction
Toledo 83, Michigan 81
Moneyline
TOLEDO (+210) heads up US 23 to Michigan (-280) on a mission, looking to prove that it deserved an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. Some of these mid-major teams who come up short tend to enter the NIT with a chip on their shoulder, and I think Toledo will be no exception.
The Rockets have a red-hot offense, and it will be a huge test for the defense of the Wolverines. Toledo has scored 78 or more points in 9 consecutive games since Feb. 11, and there is no reason to believe it won’t happen here, either.
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Against the spread
TOLEDO +6.5 (-115) is still a tremendous play catching more than 3 buckets, if you just can’t bring yourself to bet it straight up.
Michigan -6.5 (-105) is not like Toledo, and likely unhappy to be in an NIT game. Sure, it’s nice to be in front of your fans, but the Wolverines are highly disappointed in not making the NCAA Tournament field. A postseason bid in a lower-level tournament doesn’t have the same pizzazz as it does for a mid-major team happy to receive any postseason invitation. Look for the Rockets to come out with more energy.
Over/Under
OVER 161.5 (-110) is a rather big number, but it’s still not enough.
The Over is 5-1 in the last 6 games overall for Toledo, while going 4-1 in the last 5 games on the road, too. Toledo has posted 90 or more points in 11 occasions, while hitting the century mark 4 times this season.
For Michigan, the Over is 5-2 in the last 7 home games, while cashing at a 5-0 clip in the last 5 at home against teams with a winning road mark.
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