The Minnesota Timberwolves (11-10) travel to the nation’s capital Wednesday to play the Washington Wizards (13-8) at Capital One Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Timberwolves vs. Wizards odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Minnesota has won seven of its last eight games including back-to-back victories over the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers. The T-Wolves are 10-11 ATS and 8-13 O/U with the ninth-best net rating.
Washington has won only three of its past seven games with its latest outing being a 116-99 blowout loss at the San Antonio Spurs as a 3.5-point road favorite. The Wizards are 11-10 ATS and 8-13 O/U with the 15th-best net rating.
The Wizards crushed the T-Wolves in both regular-season meetings last year by 21 points and 16 points and the Over has cashed in seven straight Wizards-Timberwolves contests.
Timberwolves at Wizards odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Timberwolves +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Wizards -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Timberwolves +4.5 (-115) | Wizards -4.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Timberwolves at Wizards key injuries
Timberwolves
- SG Anthony Edwards (illness) questionable
- SF Jaden McDaniels (illness) questionable
- PF Jarred Vanderbilt (illness) questionable
- PG Patrick Beverly (groin) out
Wizards
- C Thomas Bryant (knee) out
- PF Rui Hachimura (personal) out
Timberwolves at Wizards odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Wizards 109, Timberwolves 102
Money line
“LEAN” to the WIZARDS (-180) because this is on the fringe of my price range for an NBA regular-season money line favorite. Honestly, I’m going to wait to see how the market shapes this line before making a wager.
Most of the market is betting Minnesota plus the points as well as Washington’s money line at the time of publishing. If money keeps coming in on the T-Wolves, I could see the Wizards’ money line lowering to -150 or cheaper.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the WIZARDS -4.5 (-107) because they are the right side however you decide to get down on Washington.
There’s value in fading the recency bias towards the Timberwolves who have looked good lately. More than 85% of the action is on Minnesota according to the Yahoo! Sports App, and Washington just got bludgeoned by a bad Spurs squad.
However, the Wizards play well against quality competition. Surprisingly to some, Minnesota has a top-10 efficiency differential.
Washington is 5-3 overall with a plus-3.0 ATS margin vs. top-10 teams in efficiency differential. The Wizards are also 10th in efficiency differential and third in ATS margin against top-10 teams last season.
Furthermore, Washington’s defense has a couple of strength-on-weakness edges over Minnesota.
The T-Wolves attempt the second-most catch-and-shoot 3-pointers in the NBA according to ShotQuality.com, and they get out in transition at the ninth-highest frequency.
Washington’s defense is third in shot quality allowed against catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and has the fourth-best efficiency vs. transition offense.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 216.5 (-115) because of the aforementioned ways Washington could disrupt Minnesota’s offense.
The T-Wolves have the second-best defensive 3-point percentage and the Wizards are 26th in 3-point percentage as well. Both teams also rank in the top-eight of defensive effective field goal shooting.
Plus a vast majority of the market is betting the Over (according to the Yahoo! Sports App) probably because seven straight Wizards-Timberwolves games have gone Over the total. So, there are “fade the market” and “buck the head-to-head trend” angles with the UNDER 216.6 (-115).
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