James Harden is expected to make his highly-anticipated debut for the Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5) on Friday against the Minnesota Timberwolves .
Questions about his fit alongside MVP candidate Joel Embiid will finally start to get the answers fans have been craving since he was acquired in a trade deadline deal with the Brooklyn Nets.
Harden hasn’t played since Feb. 2, recovering from a hamstring injury suffered prior to the trade. He’s presumably fully healthy now but will have a little rust to knock off after three weeks on the sideline. Add to that, he’ll be adjusting to a new situation with new coaching and teammates in Philly, and trying to guess how he’ll play in this game isn’t easy.
it's go time. pic.twitter.com/WbMYdHDGxb
— Philadelphia 76ers (@sixers) February 25, 2022
The last time Harden played, he scored just four points on 2-of-11 shooting in 37 minutes. The prior game he scored 22 points but went just 6-of-19 from the field. He didn’t leave Brooklyn on the highest of notes, but with trade rumors already swirling at the time, there were questions about whether he was giving complete effort.
On the season, he’s averaging 22.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 10.2 assists. His prop lines for Friday’s game are 21.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists on Tipico Sportsbook.
Take the over on assists (-143)
Harden is in the middle of his second straight season with a double-digit assist average. He’s recorded at least 10 assists in his last five games, and as the new guy in Philly, he’ll likely come in trying to appease his new teammates. In his first game in Brooklyn, he had 14 assists.
The value on the over isn’t as good as the under at +110, but that’s because it’s probably the most likely outcome of any of the props.
Take the over on points (-111)
In his Brooklyn debut, Harden also had 32 points. And while it’s unlikely he puts up 30 on Friday after so much time off, 22 points seems reasonable. After all, the only player he needs to defer to is Embiid and there will plenty more shots to go around. The Timberwolves are allowing the fifth-most points to opponents this season while playing at the third-fastest pace.
Take the under on rebounds (+110)
The rebounds will be the toughest part for Harden simply due to the presence of the two bigs, Embiid and the Wolves’ Karl-Anthony Towns. That makes the value on this pick is simply too good to pass on.
Harden did average over eight rebounds in his two seasons with the Nets, but those numbers are slightly inflated partly by how small and fast that team often played. In Houston, he averaged about two fewer rebounds.
Under 2.5 3-pointers is also a good bet, with Harden eclipsing two just twice in his last eight games.