It’s offseason time in college basketball and that means–despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic–its mock draft season.
Michigan State junior Xavier Tillman Sr. has an NBA decision to make this offseason, and–by the looks of one mock draft–he might not really have much of a decision. Tillman is projected to get drafted 28th overall to the Toronto Raptors in SB Nation’s latest mock draft.
Of Tillman, author Ricky O’Donnell writes, “Tillman might have been the most impactful player in college basketball over the last season and a half. Michigan State took off when he replaced Nick Ward in the Spartan lineup as a sophomore. In a full-time role as a junior, all Tillman did was lead college basketball in box score plus-minus by anchoring Tom Izzo’s defense and acting as an indispensable part of its offense. A 6’8, 245-pound center, Tillman is neither the biggest or the fastest frontcourt prospect in this draft, but he might be the smartest. He always seems to know where to be and never wastes his movement. Known for his shot-blocking and rebounding, Tillman also finished in the 88th percentile of points per possession on offense.”
As a borderline first-round prospect, getting picked in the top 30 would be huge for Tillman–who is married and has two children. The financial implications between a first round and second round pick in the NBA are quite large.
In the NBA first round picks get two-year deals guaranteed with team options for an additional two years. Last year’s 28th pick, Michigan’s Jordan Poole, will make $4 million over the next two years and two team options could bring his deal to more than $10 million. Usually teams will play out their team options and then determine whether or not to sign the player to an extension or risk losing them to free agency. For example, Pascal Siakam, the 27th pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, played his first three years on his rookie deal. Toronto, to avoid him entering restricted free agency, signed Siakam to a four-year $130 million extension. Being a first round pick gives a player that leverage to get a deal done with the team that drafted him. Those guarantees and longer deals don’t exist for all second round picks. Some of the top second-round players will get guaranteed money, but they are not required to like first rounders.
Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the NBA is still seeking applications for their Undergraduate Advisory Committee. This is the group that provides NBA feedback on an undergraduate college player’s professional potential. Tillman will almost certainly submit his name for advisory and I’d expect Aaron Henry and perhaps Joey Hauser to as well, just to get a feel for where their stock is. Cassius Winston did so last season, but opted to return to Michigan State for his senior season.
There is no word on what the NBA Draft process and timeline will be due to the coronavirus.
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