The Detroit Tigers (53-59) and Cleveland Indians (53-54) will tangle in an AL Central contest Saturday. First pitch from Progressive Field is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Tigers vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Tyler Alexander is the projected starting pitcher for the Tigers. He is 1-1 with a 4.77 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9 in 54 2/3 IP over six starts and 24 relief appearances.
- Has logged a 5.74 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road across two starts and 14 relief appearances.
- Making his fifth straight appearance as a starter. Has an 8.44 ERA in 5 IP through five relief appearances against the Indians.
RHP Eli Morgan is the projected starter for the Indians. The 25-year-old rookie is 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, and 1.4 BB/9 in 37 1/3 IP over eight starts.
- Has allowed a home run in all eight starts and has yielded 3 or more earned runs in seven starts.
- Has been undone by a 66.3% left-on-base rate and a 21.1% home run/fly-ball rate.
Tigers at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Tigers +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Indians -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (-155) | Indians -1.5 (+122)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Prediction
Tigers 4, Indians 3
Money line (ML)
Detroit lost Friday’s series opener, 6-1, and is now 6-8 since winning seven in a row coming out of the All-Star break. The Bengals clocked a 1.50 ER over their win streak; they’ve posted a 4.69 ERA since.
Cleveland has had its own pitching woes of late with a 4.84 ERA in the second half. Cleveland snapped a 3-game losing streak with its Friday win; the team owns a shaky 11-21 mark since June 30.
Detroit is a slight lean but with Alexander on the mound and a lukewarm (or colder) price with which to work, that lean – on the TIGERS (+130) – is perhaps worth just a partial-unit play.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the extra juice here.
Over/Under (O/U)
Detroit has played in eight straight Unders, and the lean is on that streak continuing on Saturday. The Tigers and Indians went into this series each averaging 4.28 runs per game. In both cases, that figure was a bit rich compared to support analytics.
Add in some play toward Eli Morgan and the Detroit bullpen as being undervalued by surface stats.
TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 (-105) in what marks the strongest play in this matchup.
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