The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets meet in Game 5 of their Western Conference first-round series on Saturday at 6:30 p.m. ET in the Orlando Bubble. We analyze the Thunder-Rockets NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Tied 2-2.
Thunder vs. Rockets: Key injuries
Rockets
- PG Russell Westbrook (quadriceps) probable
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Thunder vs. Rockets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Thunder 115, Rockets 110
Moneyline (ML)
The Thunder (+170) was aggressive in getting to the foul line against the Rockets (-209) in a 117-114 Game 4 victory. Oklahoma City attempted 28 free throws compared to Houston’s 10 tries from the charity stripe.
It’s vital for the Thunder to negate or perform better than the Rockets in their two biggest strengths: drawing fouls and shooting three-pointers. They’ve been successful in those metrics thus far.
Houston is shooting the most threes in the playoffs but ranks 11th in three-point %, and the Rockets have attempted the second-fewest free throws per playoff game. OKC is settling into the series, and Sixth Man of the Year-nominee Dennis Schroder seems to have knocked the rust off from his pre-playoff-bubble absence.
Also, Russell Westbrook’s return led to a 2-3 point move in the betting line. I very much disagree with the market about how much Westbrook is worth to the number. I’d agree to prime, MVP-era Westbrook making a huge difference depending on the matchup. But in this spot, I’ll be grabbing the points.
The deeper and more complete THUNDER (+170) will take control of the series in Game 5. New to sports betting? A $50 bet on the Thunder (+170) earns an $85 profit if OKC upsets Houston.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Double your BET on THUNDER +5 (-110). OKC was the best against-the-spread team in the regular season. The Thunder have gone 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings with Houston.
New to sports betting? A $110 bet on the Thunder +5 (-110) returns a $100 profit if OKC wins or loses by four or fewer points.
Also see:
- Rockets Wire – The latest Houston coverage
- Thunder Wire – The latest OKC coverage
Over/Under (O/U)
This matchup screams UNDER 227.5 (-110) because Westbrook is playing in Game 5. Since he isn’t 100%, Westbrook’s addition to the lineup could be a subtraction for the ball movement and rhythm the role players have built.
When Westbrook is on the court, Houston’s offensive rating lowers by 2.4 points, and its defensive rating improves by 2 points, according to Basketball-Reference.com. It’ll be natural for the Rockets to give Westbrook some isolation plays to get him back into the groove.
It’s only a lean for me because the Rockets foist their pace on their opponents. OKC appears to have figured out how to score on Houston, and the Rockets are going to do what they do. Houston will go down firing regardless. Also, if Westbrook doesn’t play or plays only a few minutes, this angle isn’t strong.
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