In a light heavyweight bout in the main event, Thiago Santos and Jamahal Hill meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 40 — also known as UFC Vegas 59 — at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 40 Santos vs. Hill odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+ with the prelims starting at 7 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m. ET.
Santos limps into this bout with a 1-4 record across his last 5 showings, including a unanimous-decision (UD) loss to Magomed Ankalaev last time out in the main event at UFC Vegas 50 in mid-March.
The lone victory for Santos during the 5-fight stretch was a UD win over Johnny Walker in the main event in early Oct. 2021. Each of his last 3 fights, and 4 of his last 5, have resulted in decisions.
The 31-year-old Hill has been on a more upward trajectory, winning his last 2 fights via first-round KO/TKOs, including last time out in mid-February against Walker. Four of his last 5 bouts have finished in the 1st round, and his last fight to go the distance came in Jan. 2020 against Darko Stosic, a win via UD.
Hill takes the walk to the octagon with a 2-inch height advantage and a 3-inch advantage in reach. The southpaw also holds a big 7.06-to-3.77 significant strikes landed per minute advantage.
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UFC on ESPN 40 Santos vs. Hill odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:44 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Santos +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Hill -340 (bet $340 to win $100)
- Total rounds: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-180)
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+245) | No (-380)
[tipico]
UFC on ESPN 40 Santos vs. Hill picks and predictions
Records: Santos (22-10-0) | Hill (10-1-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Hill (-340) will cost you nearly 3.5 times your potential return, and that’s just too risky. Instead, let’s get specific.
First off, Hill doesn’t go very deep into matches. His UFC debut went the distance against Stosic in Jan. 2020, and he has been to Round 2 just once in the past 5 outings since. Look for HILL BY TKO/KO (-165) to cash.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-380): Fight to go the distance is just too expensive, so avoid it. If you really have your heart set on playing an Over/Under, look to UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-180), although I don’t love it, as that’s still a lot of chalk for my liking.
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