The Texas Tech Red Raiders meet the Houston Cougars in their season openers at NRG Stadium in Houston for a cross-conference battle. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Texas Tech vs. Houston odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Both Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells and Houston’s head coach Dana Holgorsen enter their third season with neither having an above-.500 year thus far. The Red Raiders finished 4-6 in 2020 while the Cougars were 3-5.
The Red Raiders have 17 starters returning: Eight on offense and nine on offense. The Cougars also bring back the same number of starters on each side of the ball. ESPN’s college football guru, Bill Connelly, ranks Texas Tech and Houston neck-and-neck in returning production for 2021 (69-70th).
Texas Tech at Houston odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Texas Tech +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Houston -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Texas Tech +1.5 (-110) | Houston -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 64.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Texas Tech at Houston odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas Tech 34, Houston 28
Money line
GIMME TEXAS TECH (+100) for 1 unit because they are more experienced—the Red Raiders have a Big 12-high 12 super seniors—and junior transfer, former-Oregon QB Tyler Shough, gives Texas Tech an edge in the quarterback matchup.
These two squads rank near each other in Football Outsiders’ F+ ratings overall and on both sides of the ball. Houston and Texas Tech have nearly the same returning production and an equal amount of returning starters.
Also, I think the market’s assumption is that Houston junior QB Clayton Tune and this offense takes a step forward in Holgorsen’s third season on the job.
However, Wells has a slightly better record in his three seasons at Texas Tech as Holgorsen in Houston. Furthermore, the Red Raiders had a plus-differential in yards per play against tougher competition than the Cougars, who had a negative net yards per play.
Moreover, Shough is a four-star recruit who passed for 1,559 yards last season with a 13 touchdown-to-6-interception ratio and led Oregon in rushing attempts. Shough will have a lot of support at his new home in Lubbock, Texas and should pick up where he left off in Oregon.
BET TEXAS TECH (+100).
Against the spread
The spread and the money line are identical for Texas Tech-Houston so PASS and STICK WITH THE MONEY LINE.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 64.5 (-108) for a half unit only because the Texas Tech-Houston total opened at 69.5 before it was steamed down to the current numbers. The reason for the line movement was because oddsmakers sided with the “sharp” money, which is backing the Under at a nearly 80% clip (according to Pregame.com).
But, the best part of that line movement is that it’s going in the opposite direction of a public that’s betting the Over at roughly a 60% rate. It’s a bit of a sweet spot in sports betting when you’re on the same side as the “wiseguys” and fading the public.
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