The Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) and Ole Miss Rebels (8-4) meet in the Texas Bowl Wednesday at the NRG Stadium in Houston. Kickoff is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Texas Tech and Ole Miss meet for the 7th time, with the Rebels leading the all-time series 4-2. This will be the 4th time they’ve met in a bowl game, with Ole Miss winning the previous 3.
The Rebels topped the Red Raiders in 1986 and 1998 in the Independence Bowl. Ole Miss won 47-34 on Jan. 2, 2009 in the Cotton Bowl.
Neither of these teams are terribly affected by the opt-out and/or transfer portal list, which is nice. DB Miles Battle is the biggest loss for the Rebels, as he had 21 total stops, 4 passes defensed and an interception in 11 games.
The biggest loss for the Red Raiders is also in the defensive backfield, as DB Reggie Pearson Jr. hits the portal. He had 44 total stops, a half-sack, fumble recovery, 4 passes defensed and 2 interceptions in 12 games.
Texas Tech enters on a 3-game win and cover streak, and it is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games overall. The Red Raiders ranked 13th in the regular season with 307.1 passing yards per game.
The Red Raiders are 89th in rushing defense, allowing 166.6 yards per game. That will be key, as Ole Miss RB Quinshon Judkins rushed for 1,476 yards and 16 TDs and RB Zach Evans added 899 yards and 8 TD. Tech will have no shot here if it can’t slow down the Rebs on the ground.
Ole Miss was halfway decent against the pass, allowing 218.0 yards per game to rank 57th in the nation. That’s also a key area of focus in this game.
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Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 8:54 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Texas Tech +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Ole Miss -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Texas Tech +3.5 (-110) | Ole Miss -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 72 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss picks and predictions
Prediction
Ole Miss 40, Texas Tech 35
Moneyline
OLE MISS (-170) isn’t priced out of line if you want to back the SEC school, and do not want to fiddle around with the points.
The Rebels are 3-0 all-time in bowl games against the Red Raiders, although the last meeting was in 2009, so it’s mostly a feel-good, but meaningless, stat.
Ole Miss is on a 3-game losing streak against Alabama, Arkansas and rival Mississippi State. The key is if the Rebels can get the run game going against a Red Raiders rush defense which struggles.
Against the spread
OLE MISS -3.5 (-110) comes with a little risk since the Rebels are on a skid, and Texas Tech +3.5 (-110) is on a 3-game heater.
The Red Raiders are 3-8 ATS in the past 11 bowl games, however, and 2-5 ATS in the past 7 tries against SEC teams.
Lane Kiffin’s Rebels are 10-3-1 ATS in the past 14 neutral-site games, while cashing at a 6-2-1 ATS clip in the past 9 bowl games. However, this comes with risk since the Rebs are just 2-5 ATS in the past 7 against winning teams, and 1-4-1 ATS in the past 6 games overall. Go lightly.
Over/Under
OVER 72 (-108) might be the best play in the Texas Bowl.
The Over is 16-6 in the past 22 neutral-site games for Texas Tech, while hitting in 8 of the previous 10 bowl games. And when TTU faces Ole Miss, we have had fireworks, with the Over cashing in the past 4 encounters.
While the Under is 5-0 in the past 5 bowls for Ole Miss, the Over is 5-2 in the past 7 games overall this season, which holds a lot more water.
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