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The Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) host the Houston Texans (10-6) Sunday in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. Kickoff is set for 3:05 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium, where the visiting Texans beat the Chiefs 31-24 back in Week 6. Below, we analyze the Chiefs-Texans sports betting odds and lines, while providing NFL betting tips and advice on this matchup.
Texans at Chiefs: Divisional Round preview, betting trends and notes
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- The Chiefs have been on a roll, winning six straight games, and covering the spread in each of those contests.
- The Chiefs went Over the total in their 31-21 win against the Chargers in their regular-season finale, but the Under had hit in each of their five previous five games. During that span, the Kansas City defense surrendered just 9.6 points per game.
- The total has gone Under in 10 of 17 games for the Texans this season, including each of their last four road games.
- The Kansas City defense should be able to put some pressure on Texans QB Deshaun Watson. Houston has allowed 16 sacks in their last three games (including seven last week against the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card Round), while the Chiefs have recorded 34 sacks in their last 10 games.
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes shouldn’t have too much trouble moving the ball against a Houston defense that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards on the season.
- Both defenses rank in the bottom five in yards per rush attempt, as well as receptions and receiving yards to opposing running backs.
Texans at Chiefs: Key injuries
Texans WR Will Fuller (groin) was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice, and appears to have a strong chance to return to action this weekend.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (knee) was limited in practice Wednesday, but he should be good to go for Sunday. FS Juan Thornhill is out with a torn ACL suffered in the final game of the regular season.
Texans at Chiefs: Odds, betting lines and prediction
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Chiefs 30, Texans 17
Moneyline (?)
The Texans pulled off the upset in Kansas City earlier in the year, and posted a 5-3 record on the road. But they’ll have their hands full this time, as the Chiefs have won six straight, with an average margin of victory of 16.3 points. The Chiefs should win this game, but at -455 on the moneyline, it’s best to AVOID the chalk and target the spread instead.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Chiefs to win the game outright returns a profit of just $2.20.
Against the Spread (?)
The Chiefs lost three straight home games earlier in the year, including one to the Texans, but they have been playing well lately. In their last three games at Arrowhead, they outscored their opponents (Oakland Raiders, Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers) 94-33. The line has gone up a couple points since it opened, but is still in the single digits.
Armed with an explosive offense and improved defense, look for the CHIEFS (-9.5, -110) to get revenge, and win this matchup by 10 ore more points.
Over/Under (?)
The projected total has moved up to 50.5 points, the highest total on the board in the second round. Both teams have been going Under the total a lot lately, and while the loss of Thornhill is a big one, the improved Kansas City defense should be able to prevent this from becoming a shootout. UNDER 50.5 (-106) looks like the side to take.
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