TEAM NAME World Series pennant division odds win total prediction

In 2022, the Cincinnati Reds were outscored by over a run per game (5.03 to 4.00) en route to logging a 62-100 record. The franchise’s 1st 100-loss season since 1982 came in what marked the beginning of a rebuild in Cincy.

Free-agent acquisitions OF/1B Wil Myers and IF Kevin Newman don’t figure to move the needle much on getting run production on par with what pitching and defense is expected to yield. Much youth will be on display as the Reds’ rebuild continues. Let’s analyze the Cincinnati Reds‘ World Series odds, along with their projected win total, playoff, division and NL odds as we make our expert MLB picks and predictions.

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Cincinnati Reds World Series odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday, March 23 at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Odds: +20000 (bet $100 to win $20,000)

Cincinnati has the 4th-longest odds to win the Fall Classic. The Oakland A’s have the longest odds at +40000. The Washington Nationals are next at +30000. The Houston Astros (+600) are the favorites, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers (+700), New York Mets (+700) and New York Yankees (+750)

At +20000 , the Reds have an implied probability of winning the World Series of 0.5% or 200/1 fractional odds.

The 0.5% chance overestimates what these Reds are very likely to do this season. That is something quite similar to what they did a year ago. PASS.

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Cincinnati Reds playoff odds

Will they make the playoffs: Yes +1500 | No -5000

PASS: Figure “No” as being closer to the correct price here, but the tag is not worth our time.

Cincinnati Reds win total

Over/Under: 64.5 (O: -135 | U: +105)

RHP Luis Castillo is gone (Seattle Mariners), but the Reds do have a couple top-shelf starters in RHP Hunter Greene and LHP Nick Lodolo. The back end of the rotation will be a Double-A-to-MLB continuum of multiple arms auditioning for the future. Because this is a rebuild. And speaking of rebuilding …

The bullpen logged a 4.72 ERA last year. That was tied with the Pittsburgh Pirates for 28th in the league. Only the Colorado Rockies (4.85 ERA) were worse, and from an analytics standpoint, a case can be made that the Reds were the worst of that woeful triumvirate.

This is by no means a ringing endorsement for this club jumping into contender-ship, but the 2022 Reds got off to an awful 3-22 start. The also had sub-.400 months in June and August but they did pepper in a couple over-.500 months (May, July). Their overall runs-scoring profile made them a couple games unlucky. Getting closer to 67-70 wins this year would not be a surprise. That’s going to take some good health with Greene and Lodolo and a couple key bats.

Its also going to take holding one’s nose to participate in a 30-cent line. Consider a partial-unit play on the OVER 64.5 (-135). Better yet, see if that tag might fall to -125 and go in with closer to a full unit.

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To win NL Central Division

St. Louis Cardinals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Milwaukee Brewers +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
Chicago Cubs +650 (bet $100 to win $650)
Cincinnati Reds +6000 (bet $100 to win $6,000)
Pittsburgh Pirates +7000 (bet $100 to win $7,000)

Cincinnati’s implied probability of winning the NL Central is 1.64% or 60/1 fractional odds. More return would be needed to take this on: PASS.

To win National League

Odds: +9000 (bet $100 to win $9,000)

AVOID. The implied probability here is 1.1% (90-to-1). But we’re just not talking about a mid-70s-win team that can get hot or get lucky and make serious waves.

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The 2022 Detroit Tigers went 66-96, placing 4th in the American League Central Division. The Bengals ranked 30th in MLB in run scoring 3.44 runs per game) and 19th in run prevention (4.40).

Detroit did mange an 11-2 surge late in the season, has some likable members of the pitching staff and figures to get some regression bounce in its poor offensive numbers. The Tigers did not add much in free agency (31-year-old RHP Michael Lorenzen logged an 18-start 4.24 ERA for the Los Angeles Angels last year). But Detroit does have some solid pitching overall and young bats worth watching (1B Spencer Torkelson, OF Riley Greene).

Let’s analyze the Detroit Tigers’ World Series odds, along with their projected win total, playoff, division and AL odds as we make our expert MLB picks and predictions.

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Detroit Tigers World Series odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday, March 22, at 11:29 a.m. ET.

Odds: +8000 (bet $100 to win $8000)

Detroit is tabbed with the 7th longest odds to win it all. The Houston Astros (+600) are the favorites, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers (+700), New York Mets (+700) and New York Yankees (+750). The Oakland A’s have the longest odds at +40000. The Washington Nationals are next at +30000.

At +8000, Detroit has an implied probability of winning the World Series of 1.23% or 80/1 fractional odds.

STEER CLEAR: that tag is closer to appropriate for the Tigers’ chances in the division. This is a club that may well be slightly improved, but the Motor City Kitties are going to play 24 more games outside the weak AL Central with this season’s new more homogenized MLB schedule. The World Series figures as a bridge too far.

Detroit Tigers playoff odds

Will they make the playoffs: Yes +1200 | No -3030

Avoid the canyon between these prices, and that’s where Detroit’s true postseason probability lies. PASS.

Detroit Tigers win total

Over/Under: 70.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

The Detroit pitching staff likely does not have a lot of upside, but it does sport enough consistent arms to keep the club competitive in enough games to perhaps grind out 74-76 victories.

The offense needs to bounce a bit, or there is still plenty of sub-70 risk. But in balance, the OVER 70.5 (-105) has value.

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To win AL Central Division

Cleveland Guardians +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
Chicago White Sox +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
Minnesota Twins +230 (bet $100 to win $230)
Detroit Tigers +3000 (bet $100 to win $3,000)
Kansas City Royals +4000 (bet $100 to win $4,000)

Detroit’s implied probability of winning the AL Central is 3.23% or 30/1 fractional odds. With Cleveland, Chicago and Minnesota being the standouts, figure that 3%-plus as being plenty sting on the book side. PASS.

To win American League

Odds: +5000 (bet $100 to win $5,000)

Same as with the other futures plays: not enough return here. Detroit figures as a decent Over play on some of the under-.500 types that could make a small step forward. But the Bengals don’t have the stripes to compete with the likes of the Astros, Yankees, Blue Jays and Mariners, let alone the tops teams in their own division.

PASS.