Tag: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox odds predictions pick betting line spread

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (44-37) and Boston Red Sox (45-36) finalize a 3-game series Wednesday at Fenway Park. First pitch is slated for a 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tampa Bay leads 3-2.

The Rays and Red Sox — the 2 closest pursuers of the New York Yankees in the powerful AL East — have split the first 2 games of this series. Tampa won Tuesday’s game and is 4-1 in its last 5 and owns a 3.34 ERA since June 12.

Tuesday’s loss snapped Boston’s 5-game Fenway win streak. Since June 1, the BoSox are 9-3 at home.

Rays at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Corey Kluber vs. RHP Brayan Bello

Kluber (3-5, 3.91 ERA) owns a 1.16 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 76 IP in 15 starts.

  • Current Boston bats own an aggregate .778 OPS against him.
  • Posted a 2.70 ERA from May 16-June 25. That stretch came to an abrupt end Friday in Toronto: 3 IP, 7H, 5R, 2 BB.

Bello is a 23-year-old making his Major League debut.

  • Has notched a 2.33 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while striking out 114 and walking 33 in 85 IP between Double- and Triple-A.
  • Facing a Tampa nine swung around to the lesser side of its platoon splits (.703 OPS vs. lefty pitchers, .672 OPS vs. right-handers).

Rays at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 1:11 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL): Rays +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Rays at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Rays 4

Money line

Many bettors — including me — lay off hurlers making their MLB debuts. But BOSTON (-130) is worth a look here.

Road-weary Tampa Bay sports some analytics that do not support solid surface numbers for the bullpen. And Boston has a better and more consistent offense.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS: The price on the straight-up play offers a bit more leverage for the risk.

Over/Under

Both offenses slow down against righty pitching, and the bullpens are in decent shape on a cool-for-July Fenway evening with a pitcher’s breeze in the forecast. TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 (-120).

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (43-37) meet the Boston Red Sox (45-35) for the 2nd of their 3-game series at Fenway Park with the 1st pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston won the series opener 4-0 Monday thanks in part to RP Kutter Crawford, who went 5 2/3 scoreless innings, with 2 H, 0 BB and 8 K.

The teams are tied 2-2 in the season series and the Red Sox have a plus-1 run differential in those meetings.

Rays at Red Sox projected starters

LHP Jeffrey Springs vs. RHP Nick Pivetta 

Springs is 3-2 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 60 IP over 10 starts and 8 relief appearances.

  • Last start: No-decision in Tampa’s 4-3 home win vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates June 24 with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 3 HR, 0 BB and 9 K.
  • 2022 as a starter: 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA (49 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 8 HR and 9.8 K/9.

Pivetta is 8-5 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 94 2/3 IP over 16 starts.

  • Last start: Won 6-5 Wednesday at the Toronto Blue Jays with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 5 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Rays: 1-2 with a 2.95 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 2 HR, 12 BB and 24 K in 4 starts.

Rays at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:06 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Rays +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-180) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Rays at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 5, Red Sox 3

Money line

BET the RAYS (+105) because they have a hefty edge in the starting pitching matchup and there’s some reverse line movement (RLM) headed toward Tampa in the betting market.

Springs has better advanced pitching numbers than Pivetta both against Tuesday’s opponent and on the season.

Springs grades 72nd percentile or better throughout the MLB in exit velocity (EV), hard-hit rate, whiff rate, chase rate, K%, BB% and expected ERA, per Statcast. Pivetta is in the 36th percentile or worse in EV, hard-hit, whiff and chase rates.

Furthermore, Springs has a .233/.304/.403 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line with a 27.3% K% and 87.3 mph EV in 22 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Boston batters.

Pivetta has a .278/.361/.476 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line with a 22.2 K% and 93.2 mph EV in 54 PA vs. current Tampa hitters.

Lastly, Boston’s ML has been lowered from a -135 opener down to the current number despite nearly 80% of the cash in the betting market being on the Red Sox, per Pregame.com. This type of suspicious line movement suggests oddsmakers are daring bettors to take more pro-Boston action.

BET 1 unit the RAYS (+105).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Rays +1.5 (-180) is too expensive considering Tampa is just 11-7 RL as road underdogs while the Red Sox -1.5 (+145) are a decent 15-16 RL as home favorites. Also just 2 of the Rays-Red Sox 4 meetings this year have been decided by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-115) because Rays-Red Sox are 0-3-1 O/U in their 4 meetings in 2022, Tampa is 0-4 O/U in Springs’ last 4 starts vs. teams with a winning record and Boston is 0-5-1 O/U in its last 6 games against left-handed starters.

However, the UNDER 9.5 (-115) is only a “lean” because Fenway Park is 7th in park factor (aka very hitter-friendly) and we are seeing that same suspect RLM in the betting market for the total. A slight majority of the action is on the Under, but the total has increased from a 9-run opener, per Pregame.com.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (43-36) take the field against the Boston Red Sox (44-35) Monday at Fenway Park in the first of a 3-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tamps leads 2-1.

Both teams have won 6 of their last 10 games as they jockey for position in the wild-card hunt while the New York Yankees run away with AL East. Tampa has won 3 games in a row after a 5-game slate with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Boston is 2-4 in its last 6 games as they lost 2 series to the Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs. By the numbers, Boston shouldn’t be a second-place team. The Sox are in the top 10 offensively in Runs/9 (8th), BA (2nd) and OPS (6th). They’re in the top 10 defensively in the same categories (9th, 7th, 7th). The Yankees have been that good, though.

Rays at Red Sox projected starters

LHP Jalen Beeks vs. LHP Austin Davis

Beeks (1-1, 2.70 ERA) makes his 5th start and 21st appearance. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 33 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 4 K in 2 IP in his last opening appearance June 29 vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • In his last 4 outings he has a 7.36 ERA and 1.36 WHIP while striking out 9 in 7.1 innings.
  • He tops out around 40 pitches, which should be around 2-3 innings again.

Davis (1-1, 2.45 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 29th appearance. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 29 1/3 IP.

  • Steps in for RHP Michael Wacha, who has a “heavy arm” and was scratched from the start.
  • Threw 2 hitless frames with 1 BB and 2 K’s May 15 in an opening against the Texas Rangers.
  • Has only pitched once since June 18 when he threw a scoreless frame with 1 K against Toronto June 27

Rays at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Rays +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Red Sox -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-170) | Red Sox -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Rays at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 6 Red Sox 4

Money line

These teams haven’t played each other since the first month of the season. The Red Sox really struggled early on, and they’ll face each other 7 times over the next couple of weeks. Red Sox SS Xander Bogaerts (thigh) left Sunday’s game with a thigh laceration, and he’s questionable Monday.

This one is going to be a bullpen game for both sides. Tampa has a slight edge in bullpen ERA at 3.36 (8th) while Boston is 14th at 3.74. Tampa actually hits better on the road with a .244 BA and .304 OBP as opposed to .232 and .299 at home. With those two advantages, we’ll LEAN RAYS (+115).

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Run line/Against the spread

The Rays are 19-18 on the RL on the road, and their last 4 wins have been by multiple runs. There was some value in RAYS +1.5 until that line got over -165.

Over/Under

With this being a battle of bullpens, the total could certainly go 11 runs or more. It’s 83 degrees with a slight 5-mph wind blowing toward the right-field corner. The Over is 16-4-1 in the last 21 meetings in Boston. I’m not feeling it, though. These two teams combined for 7 runs twice and 5 runs in the other game earlier this season. SLIGHT LEAN to UNDER 10.5 (-122).

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ALDS Game 4: Tampa Bay at Boston odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox ALDS Game 4 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox continue their best-of-five American League Division Series Monday with a 7:07 p.m. ET first pitch at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Collin McHugh is the projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay. He was 6-1 with a 1.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, and 1.7 BB/9 over 64 IP across seven starts and 32 relief appearances in the regular season.

  • Allowed 3 ER over 1 2/3 IP in Game 2 of the ALDS. That came after he allowed just 3 ER through 12 2/3 IP over the last 33 days of the regular season.
  • Figures to serve as the opener for a bullpen game.
  • Current Boston batters own an aggregate .904 OPS against him.

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is the projected starter for Boston. Rodriguez was 13-8 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 through 157 2/3 IP across 31 starts and one relief appearance in the regular season.

  • Allowed 4 base runners and a pair of runs over 1 2/3 IP in an ALDS Game 1 relief appearance. Owns an 8.49 ERA in 11 2/3 career playoff innings.
  • Clocked a 3.26 ERA over the last two months of the regular season. Has been a solid betting choice over the second half, mostly due to a wide gulf between his ERA and expected-ERA figures. Posted a .363 batting average on balls in play during the regular season, which made his surface numbers look dodgier than deserved.
  • Current Tampa Bay batters own an aggregate .845 OPS against him.

Tampa Bay at Boston odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:35 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Tampa Bay -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Boston -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+140) | Boston +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Boston 5, Tampa Bay 4

Money line (ML)

Boston heads into Game 3 with a 2-1 series lead after C Christian Vasquez homered in the bottom of the 13th inning in Sunday’s game, a 6-4 Red Sox triumph at Fenway Park. The Rays look to stay alive after winning 100 games and the AL East crown in the regular season.

Peg Rodriguez and the Red Sox as a value in this spot. Boston has the look of a team hitting a peak at the right time. The Sox are 6-1 over their last seven games and 14-6 over their last 20.

BACK BOSTON (-115).

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the extra juice here.

Over/Under (O/U)

The concept of “cluster luck” pegs the Rays’ offense as being way overvalued. The “ability” to cluster hits, walks, and extra-base knocks in bunches such that more runs are produced is not really an ability at all but more of a set of random occurrences. Mix in a play on Rodriguez and perhaps a benefit of Tampa Bay using its bullpen this game, then add a cooler night and a slight inward breeze helping the pitchers on both sides.

TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 (-122).

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ALDS Game 3: Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox ALDS Game 3 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox continue their best-of-five showdown as the American League Division Series shifts to Fenway Park for Game 3 Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The AL East champion and top-seeded Rays (100-62 regular season) took Thursday’s opener 5-0 as -165 favorites. The Red Sox (92-70), who advanced out of the AL Wild Card Game, evened this series with a 14-6 beatdown as +130 underdogs Friday.

Rays RHP Drew Rasmussen (4-0, 2.44 ERA) makes his 11th start and 21st appearance Sunday. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 59 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 7-0 victory at Houston Astros Sept. 29
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 1-0, 2.30 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 13 H, 0 HR, 5 BB, 14 K in three starts and two relief appearances, all in 2021

Red Sox RHP Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA regular season) makes his second start of the postseason. He posted a 1.19 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 182 1/3 IP in 32 regular-season starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 6-2 home win vs. New York Yankees in AL Wild Card Game Tuesday
  • Career vs. Rays: 4-6, 4.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 70 2/3 IP (12 starts and two relief appearances)

Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Red Sox -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+145) | Red Sox +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Prediction

Rays 5, Red Sox 3

Money line (ML)

TAMPA BAY (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

The Rays finished with the AL’s best road record at 48-33 and beat the Red Sox 11-8 in the regular-season series. However, the Red Sox went 49-32 at Fenway, including 5-4 vs. the Rays.

While Boston is 8-1 in Eovaldi’s last nine starts, including the Wild Card victory, Tampa Bay is 6-2 in Rasmussen’s last eight starts and 6-0 in his last six starts away from The Trop.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET TAMPA BAY -1.5 (+145) for a QUARTER UNIT.

ATS records:

  • Regular season: Red Sox 84-78 | Rays 97-65
  • Postseason: Red Sox 2-1 | Rays 1-1

The Rays’ regular-season ATS mark led the AL and ranked second among all 30 teams – the San Francisco Giants were No. 1 at 98-64.

Boston covered the spread in the first four games of the season’s head-to-head series, but Tampa Bay is 11-6 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET UNDER 8.5 (-108) to WIN 0.3 UNITS.

O/U records:

  • Regular season: Red Sox 74-85-3 | Rays 83-71-8
  • Postseason: Red Sox 1-1-1 | Rays 1-1

As mentioned above, Rasmussen featured a 2.30 ERA in five outings vs. Boston this season. Meanwhile, Eovaldi posted a 2.39 ERA in four starts vs. Tampa Bay.

The Under is 6-2 in Rasmussen’s last eight starts but would be 5-3 if the line was 8.5.

As for Eovaldi, the Under is only 1-6 in his last seven home starts.

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JOHNNY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
SINCE JULY 8 54-31 23-9 +20.797
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (88-51) and Boston Red Sox (79-62) square off for the 19th and last time this season Wednesday night. First pitch from Fenway Park will be at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Rays LHP Shane McClanahan (9-5, 3.76 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 105 1/3 IP.

  • Roughed up by the Red Sox Thursday, while allowing 4 runs over 5 innings, though he did tie a season-high with 8 strikeouts.
  • Won each of his previous five starts, allowing only 9 earned runs across 29 1/3 innings in August (2.76 ERA).

Red Sox RHP Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.73 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 156 2/3 IP.

  • Last two starts were against the Cleveland Indians, each of which the Red Sox won but he took a no-decision. He allowed 5 runs across 11 2/3 innings in those two games combined, striking out 16 batters.
  • He’s 2-1 against the Rays this season and has allowed 7 earned runs over 19 1/3 innings spanning three starts.

Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Red Sox -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+140) | Red Sox +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Prediction

Rays 5, Red Sox 3

Money line (ML)

The Rays tagged the Red Sox for more than 10 runs again Tuesday night, winning 12-7 after an 11-10 victory the night prior. Boston’s pitching has struggled of late with 34 runs allowed across its last three games.

The Red Sox will try to snap their three-game losing skid Wednesday but I don’t see that happening. Bet the RAYS (-112).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Rays covered the spread for the seventh time in their last 10 games Tuesday while winning by 5 runs. Boston dropped to 3-7 ATS across its last 10 outings and has failed to keep up with its opponents lately.

Eovaldi being on the mound helps, but McClanahan has pitched well in recent outings, too. I like the rookie to limit Boston and help the RAYS -1.5 (+140) win by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

The total went Over in the first two games of the series, with the teams combining for 19 runs Tuesday and 21 Monday.

After all that offense, they will revert to the mean and play a lower-scoring game Wednesday – especially with a matchup between Eovaldi and McClanahan.

Bet the UNDER 9.5 (-108).

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (87-51) and Boston Red Sox (79-61) will play their 18th and penultimate game of the season series Tuesday at Fenway Park. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Rays RHP Drew Rasmussen (1-1, 3.38 ERA) makes his seventh start and 32nd appearance. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 56 IP.

  • Rasmussen hasn’t gone more than 5 innings in any of his last four starts and has allowed just 3 runs across 17 innings in that span.
  • He’s allowed 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks with 9 strikeouts over 8 innings in his two starts against Boston.

Red Sox LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (11-7, 4.88 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 132 2/3 IP.

  • Earned the win against the Rays with 0 runs allowed and 6 strikeouts over 6 innings in his last start.
  • The Red Sox are 12-4 in his last 16 starts dating back to June 5. Rodriguez has just two losses in that span.

Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:54 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Red Sox -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+140) | Red Sox +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Rays 6, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

The Red Sox have been wildly inconsistent as of late. They’ve lost three in a row, won four straight, and now dropped their last two outings across their last nine games. The Rays are 7-3 in their last 10 and have won three of their last five against Boston.

I like the RAYS (-110) to win outright on the road tonight, coming off a dramatic 6-run comeback on Monday.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Rays are 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games and just pulled off a wild win over Boston. Boston probably has the edge with Rodriguez starting Tuesday, but Rasmussen hasn’t allowed more than 1 run in an outing since July 5.

Bet the RAYS -1.5 (+140) to cover the spread and win by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

The total has gone Over eight times in the last nine meetings between these clubs at Fenway Park. The Over is 14-6 in the last 20 games between the Rays and Red Sox as they score in bunches when they meet on the diamond.

Bet the OVER 9.5 (-120) tonight.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (86-51) and Boston Red Sox (79-60) play the opener of a three-game series Monday at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Rays LHP Ryan Yarbrough (8-4, 4.50 ERA) makes his 20th start and 26th appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 through 134 IP.

  • Yielded 2 runs on 5 hits and no walks with 3 strikeouts across 6 innings in a win over Boston Tuesday at Tropicana Field.
  • Is 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA and .303 opponent batting average with 5 home runs allowed in 18 IP across three starts and one relief appearance against Boston this season.

Red Sox LHP Chris Sale (3-0, 2.53 ERA) makes his fifth start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 through 21 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed 2 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks with 3 strikeouts over 6 IP in a win in St. Petersburg Wednesday against the Rays.
  • Has won three of his four starts this season, and has allowed just 2 home runs across the past 16 1/3 IP over three outings.

Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:26 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Red Sox -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays +1.5 (-175) | Red Sox -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Red Sox 5, Rays 2

Money line (ML)

The RED SOX (-150) are moderate favorites against the Rays in this showdown game. Tampa Bay is the only team Sale didn’t get a win against in his four starts to date, but he pitched well and he’ll do so again Monday at Fenway.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

RED SOX -1.5 (+140) covered the run line in each of the past two meetings with the Rays, including once as a favorite. Boston has won by 2 or more runs in 11 of its last 14 victories.

Over/Under (O/U)

Play UNDER 8.5 (+100) as a great value at plus money.

The Under is 5-2-1 in Tampa Bay’s last eight games inside the division while going 4-1 in its last five against a left-handed starting pitcher. The Under is also 4-0 in its last four series openers.

The Under is 5-1 in Boston’s last six against AL East foes and 4-1 in its last five meetings with Tampa.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (69-44)  meet the Boston Red Sox (65-50) Wednesday at Fenway Park for the second game of their three-game series with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tampa rallied back from a 3-run deficit in the 6th and 7th innings of the series opener before keying the 8-4 victory with a 4-run 9th inning.

Season series: Rays lead 6-4.

LHP Josh Fleming is Tampa’s projected starter. Fleming is 9-5 with a 4.12 ERA (87 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 10 starts and eight relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-3, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 6 K against the Seattle Mariners August 4.
  • Fleming beat the Red Sox July 30 with a stat line of 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 7 K in Tampa’s 7-3 home victory.
  • vs. Red Sox on the current roster (33 PA): 7.82 FIP with a .414 batting average (BA), .482 wOBA, .569 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.2 K% and 89.5 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Nathan Eovaldi makes his 23rd start for the Red Sox. Eovaldi is 9-7 with a 4.07 ERA (126 IP, 57 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 12-4, with 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 4 K Friday at the Toronto Blue Jays.
  • Eovaldi is 1-1 this season against Tampa with a 4.38 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 9 H, 4 BB and 13 K in two starts.
  • vs. the Rays on the current roster (123 PA): 4.88 FIP with a .286 BA, .387 wOBA, .514 xSLG, 23.6 K% and 89.2 mph EV.

Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:07 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+140) | Red Sox +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Prediction

Rays 7, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

BET the RAYS (+100) for 1 unit because they have a significant edge in bullpen pitching and hitting and there’s an obvious “line freeze” situation in the betting market.

For instance, Tampa’s lineup ranks fourth in wRC+, sixth in wOBA and first in hard-hit rate in the majors against right-handed pitching.

Also, Boston’s bullpen is below-average in most advanced pitching metrics while the Rays relievers are top-3 in WAR, SIERA, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning since the All-Star Break.

Furthermore, according to pregame.com, the market is betting Boston at nearly a 60% clip but the line hasn’t budged from the Red Sox (-120) on the opener.

Maybe oddsmakers adjust the line closer to the first pitch, which is why I’d wait to bet this game. Plus if we see “reverse line movement” in Tampa’s direction I’d be okay laying a little vig with the Rays at minus-money.

Either way, I’m BETTING 1 unit on the RAYS (+100) at some point today.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the RAYS -1.5 (+140) for a tiny wager if at all because Tampa has the third-highest cover rate on the road at 36-20 ATS and seven of the 10 Rays-Red Sox meetings this season have been decided by 2 or more runs.

Moreover, Tampa’s lineup could do damage in the late innings for a second straight game against a Boston bullpen that’s bottom 10 in xFIP and SIERA in the second half of the year.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 10.5 (-112) since Tampa’s road games play to the Over at the highest rate in the MLB and the Rays’ AL East games have gone Over at the third-highest rate.

However, that’s probably a big reason why most of the market is also on the Over and I hate following a crowd in sports betting so I’ll stay away from this total.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (65-49) host the Tampa Bay Rays (68-44) Tuesday to kick off a three-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tampa has won eight of its last 10 games, which includes a three-game sweep of Boston, and has passed the Red Sox for first place in the AL East. Boston has lost eight of its last 10 games, all on the road, and is 4 games back of the Rays.

Season series: Rays lead 5-4.

RHP Luis Patino is Tampa’s projected starter. Patino is 2-3 with a 4.42 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in seven starts and two relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-2, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 3 K against the Seattle Mariners August 3.
  • 2021 road splits: 1-1 with a 7.41 ERA (17 IP, 14 ER), 20 H, 6 BB and 20 K in three starts and one bullpen outing.

LHP Eduardo Rodríguez makes his 22nd start for the Red Sox. Rodríguez is 8-6 with a 5.33 ERA (104 2/3 IP, 62 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 10 K at the Detroit Tigers Wednesday.
  • Rodriguez picked up a no-decision June 22 at Tampa with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 7 K in Boston’s 9-5 victory.
  • vs. Rays on the current roster (87 PA): 5.08 FIP with a .267 batting average, .360 wOBA, .325 expected slugging percentage, 27.5 K% and 87.9 mph exit velocity.

Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:54 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Rays 7, Red Sox 5

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the RAYS (+105) because Tampa has beaten the Red Sox in five straight meetings and 13 of the last 17 games in Boston.

Furthermore, the Red Sox’s lineup is starting to regress after the All-Star Break and Tampa’s is peaking. For example, Boston’s lineup ranks in the bottom 10 of wRC+, BB/K and WAR while the Rays are in the top 10 in each of those categories.

Also, Tampa’s bullpen has by far the highest WAR in the second half of the season and ranks in the top 3 of SIERA, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning rate over that span. While Boston’s relief pitching has been mediocre hence their 16th-ranked WAR since the All-Star Game.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Rays +1.5 (-190) because it’s out of my price range but there are so many positive run line trends for Tampa.

For instance, the Rays have the second-best cover rate against divisional foes at 32-18 ATS, the fourth-best cover rate on the road at 35-20 ATS, and are 21-6 ATS as a road underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-120) for a half unit because the Over is 9-1-1 in the last 11 Rays-Red Sox meetings in Boston and Tampa has the second-highest rate of Overs as a road team.

However, my hesitancy is the vast majority of the market is backing the Over and I hate following a crowd in sports betting. Also, the Rays score more than a run per game less against left-handed pitching.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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