Tag: Tampa Bay Rays odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (6-7) stop by Tropicana Field Friday to start a three-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays (7-6) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston lost its previous set at home to the Toronto Blue Jays 2-1 earlier this week after splitting their four-game series with the Minnesota Twins last weekend.

Tampa split its six-game road trip to Chicago entering Friday after losing its White Sox series 2-1 last weekend followed by a 2-1 series victory at the Cubs Monday-Wednesday.

The Rays beat the Red Sox 11-8 in last year’s regular-season series and Tampa outscored Boston 106-104 in those meetings.

Red Sox at Rays: Projected starters

RHP Michael Wacha vs. RHP Corey Kluber 

Wacha (0-0, 0.96 ERA) earned his second no-decision Sunday in Boston’s 8-1 win versus the Twins. He went 5 IP, allowing 0 ER on 1 H and 2 BB with 5 K. It’s a revenge game for Wacha who was in Tampa’s starting rotation in 2021.

  • vs. Rays on the current roster: 4.19 FIP with a .290 batting average (BA), .336 wOBA, .382 xSLG, 18.2 K% and 80.3 mph exit velocity (EV) in 33 plate appearances (PA).

Kluber (0-0, 1.86 ERA) also has two no-decisions under his belt, pitching 4 2/3 innings of scoreless ball in Tampa’s 8-0 win over the Baltimore Orioles April 10 and allowing just 2 ER over 5 IP in Tampa’s 3-2 loss at the White Sox Saturday.

  • vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 4.62 FIP with a .218 BA, .304 wOBA, .410 xSLG, 25.7 K% and 90.2 mph EV in 109 PA.

Red Sox at Rays odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:25 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Red Sox +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Rays -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-165) | Rays +1.5 (+133)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Red Sox at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Rays 3

Money line

TAKE the RED SOX (+125) because they have a slight edge over the Rays in the starting and relief pitching departments and these lineups are more or less equal.

It’s early but through two starts Wacha grades in the 95th percentile of EV, 85th percentile in expected wOBA and 99th percentile in xSLG, according to Statcast. Kluber is in the 50th percentile or lower in all of those metrics and Boston should have at least five hitters with a plus-run value versus curveballs, which is Kluber’s most used pitch of his arsenal.

Tampa’s bullpen will most likely finish as one of the better units in baseball but, at the moment, the Rays have a bunch of talented arms on the IL. Boston’s bullpen ranks fourth in FIP through the first three weeks whereas Tampa’s is 19th, per FanGraphs.

BET RED SOX (+125).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I don’t like Boston enough to take its alternate RL and the Red Sox +1.5 (-165) is too expensive of a line versus one of baseball’s top-five teams in the Rays.

Over/Under

PASS with a “lean” towards the Over 7.5 (-130) because the Red Sox-Rays is 27-11-2 O/U in their last 40 meetings and neither starter is a “top-of-the-rotation” guy.

However, I don’t like the idea of laying -130 here since most of the situational trends point to the Under and the total is being lowered by a sharp line move perhaps.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (5-5) start a 3-game interleague set with the Chicago Cubs (5-4) Monday at Wrigley Field with the first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

It’s the first meeting between the teams since the 2017 season and only the 14th time they’ve played. The Rays lead the series 8-5

Tampa snapped a 4-game losing skid and prevented a 3-game series sweep by beating the White Sox 9-3 Sunday in Chicago.

The Cubs split their 4-game road set at the Colorado Rockies by winning 6-4 Sunday. Chicago outscored Colorado 22-21 in the series.

Rays at Cubs: Projected starters

LHP Shane McClanahan vs. RHP Kyle Hendricks 

McClanahan (0-1, 3.00 ERA) took the loss Wednesday against the Oakland Athletics, going 4 2/3 IP, allowing 3 ER on 2 H and 3 BB with 8 K. He was the Rays’ Opening Day starter, pitching 4 1/3 scoreless innings in a no-decision with 7 K and 2 BB in Tampa’s 2-1 win over the Baltimore Orioles.

  • Career road splits: 3-3 with a 3.36 ERA (59 IP, 22 ER), 1.20 WHIP and 9.3 K/9 in 12 starts.

Hendricks (0-1, 7.00) was shelled in his previous outing — a 6-2 loss at the Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday — surrendering 6 ER on 7 H and 4 BB with 4 K in 3 2/3 IP. Hendricks earned a no-decision in Chicago’s 5-4 Opening Day victory versus the Milwaukee Brewers.

  • Career home splits: 42-25 with a 2.93 ERA (635 2/3 IP, 207 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 7.6 K/9 in 104 starts and 1 relief appearance.

Rays at Cubs odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:07 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Rays -155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Cubs +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+110) | Cubs +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +102 | U: -122)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Rays at Cubs prediction and picks

Prediction

Rays 5, Cubs 3

Money line

BET the RAYS (-155) because this is a fair price for a Tampa team that has an edge in the 3 most important phases of baseball (starting and relief pitching and hitting) and the Rays have been much better in interleague play record than the Cubs (+125).

McClanahan is at the top of a Tampa rotation that should be a factor come October whereas Hendricks is more of a middle-of-the-rotation starter at this point in his career and typically gets off to a slow start.

April is Hendricks’ worst month by ERA, FIP, hard-hit rate, WHIP and home runs allowed per 9 innings, according to FanGraphs.

Since the start of last season, the Rays are 15-5 versus NL teams and the Cubs are 6-14 against AL teams. In fact, Tampa has the best winning percentage in interleague play since the beginning of 2019 at 44-22.

BET the RAYS (-155).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Rays -1.5 (+110) just isn’t a steep enough payout and we are spending for a costly Tampa ML.

Also, Chicago’s lineup has hit really well to start the season so the Cubs +1.5 (-135) could sneak in the backdoor despite Tampa’s strong relief pitching.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 8.5 (-122), if at all, because the Rays have gone Under the total in 18 of McClanahan’s 25 career starts and Hendricks’ home ERA is nearly a full run lower than his road ERA over his career.

However, it’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 8.5 (-122) because most of the market is on the Under and I hate following the herd in sports betting and the weather forecast is predicting 17 mph winds blowing out to right-center field.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

Last year’s AL East champion meets the AL Central winner Friday when the Tampa Bay Rays (4-3) visit the Chicago White Sox (4-2). First pitch at Guaranteed Rate Field is 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

These teams split last year’s regular-season series 3-3 and Chicago won its home series 2-1. The Rays outscored the White Sox 34-24 last season.

Tampa hits the road for the first time this season after dropping 3 of 4 to the Oakland Athletics. The Rays were outscored by the A’s 31-16 in the 4-game set and Tampa’s only victory was by 1 run in extra innings.

Chicago had its 4-game winning streak snapped Thursday by the Seattle Mariners 5-1, but the White Sox have won their first 2 series this season.

Rays at White Sox: Projected starters

Tampa RHP Drew Rasmussen vs. Chicago RHP Dylan Cease

Rasmussen (0-0, 4.50 ERA) earned a no-decision Saturday in Tampa’s 5-3 win over the Baltimore Orioles after going 4 IP, allowing 2 ER on 3 H and 1 BB with 3 K. This is Rasmussen’s first-ever start versus the White Sox.

  • 2021 road splits: 4-1 with a 2.09 ERA (43 IP, 10 ER), 0.88 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 over 7 starts and 10 relief appearances.

Cease (1-0, 1.80 ERA) got a win Saturday in Chicago’s 5-2 victory at the Detroit Tigers. In 5 IP, he gave up 1 ER on 2 H and 3 BB with 8 K.

  • 2021 home splits: 6-2 with a 3.18 ERA (85 IP, 30 ER), 1.18 WHIP and 12.2 K/9 in 16 starts.
  • vs. Rays on the current roster: 4.15 FIP with a .222 batting average, .285 wOBA, .365 expected slugging percentage, 18.2 K% and 96.6 mph exit velocity in 11 plate appearances.

Rays at White Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:02 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Rays +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | White Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-190) | White Sox -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Rays at White Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 5, White Sox 4

Money line

GIMME the RAYS (+105) because Tampa at plus-money is too juicy to pass up. The Rays had the fourth-best record as road underdogs last season and the gap between Tampa’s and Chicago’s bullpen is bigger than Cease and Rasmussen.

Tampa’s bullpen is second in both K-BB% and xFIP thus far (according to FanGraphs) and Rasmussen was sensational on the road last season.

Also, most casual baseball fans think the Rays are carried by their pitching but Tampa’s lineup is one of the best in the MLB.

Lastly, this is a Pros vs. Joe’s game in the betting market as more money has been wagered on the Rays but more bets have been placed on the White Sox, according to Tipico Sportsbook. Since the sharps put up more dough than your average Joe, let’s tail the cash column of the market.

BET 1 unit on the RAYS (+105).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because Tampa’s 33-11 RL record as road underdogs last season is accurately accounted for in the Rays +1.5 (-190).

Furthermore, Tampa’s alternate RL of -1.5 (+175) is a no-go because the White Sox are one of the best teams in the league, so I’ll stick with the Rays’ ML at plus-money.

Over/Under

PASS because there’s been a sharp line move heading South of the total but both lineups can rake and I don’t see a lot of value in this total. For what it’s worth, the Rays are 3-4 O/U this season and the White Sox are 3-3 O/U.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Toronto Blue Jays (84-66) meet the Tampa Bay Rays (93-58) Tuesday to continue their three-game series at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Blue Jays vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tampa beat Toronto in the series opener 6-4 as Rays IF Yandy Diaz stood out, hitting for 3-for-4 with 1 home run, 1 double and 3 RBIs.

Season series: Rays lead 10-7.

RHP Alek Manoah makes his 18th start for the Blue Jays. Manoah is 6-2 with 3.39 ERA (93 IP, 35 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 8-1, with 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 10 K Sept. 13 vs. Rays.
  • Manoah is 2-1 in three starts against Tampa this year with a 0.96 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 7 H, 4 BB and 29 K.
  • vs. Rays on the current roster (66 PA): 0.87 FIP with a .102 batting average (BA), .171 wOBA, .234 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 39.4 K% and 87.1 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Drew Rasmussen gets the nod for the Rays. Rasmussen is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA (66 IP, 22 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 across eight starts and 25 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 2-0, with 5 IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 3 K Sept. 14 vs. Blue Jays.
  • Rasmussen is 1-0 against Toronto this year with a 0.00 ERA (7 IP), 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K in one start and one bullpen outing.
  • vs. Blue Jays on the current roster (23 PA): 2.07 FIP with a .091 BA, .122 wOBA, .437 xSLG, 21.7 K% and 92.1 mph EV.

Blue Jays at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:03 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Blue Jays -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Rays -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays -1.5 (+145) | Rays +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Prediction

Blue Jays 7, Rays 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BLUE JAYS (-108) because Manoah is an ace, their lineup has been a little better against right-handed pitching and Toronto’s bullpen has been one of the best units in baseball this month.

Manoah’s pitching peripherals vs. active Tampa hitters are as amazing as his basic numbers. He grades in 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate, 85th in EV and 84th in xSLG while Rasmussen ranks in the 1st percentile in hard-hit rate and 8th percentile in EV.

Toronto’s lineup has been by far the most productive in baseball this month. The Blue Jays’ 149 wRC+ in September is 14 higher than the next closest team, their .393 wOBA is 28 percentage points more than the second-place team and they are way out in front of WAR too.

It’s only a “lean” toward Toronto because Tampa is the best team in the AL and Manoah is less effective on the road compared to at home. Manoah has 0 ER in 15 IP with 20/1 K/BB in two home starts vs. the Rays but gave up 2 ER over 3 2/3 IP in his visit to Tampa.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” on the Blue Jays -1.5 (+145) because this price-point is almost big enough to take a stab at Toronto’s run line. However, Tampa is 10-6 ATS as a home underdog and Toronto is 18-20 as a road favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-112) for a tiny wager because I much prefer the Toronto side than the total in this spot. However, the market is hammering the Over and I’d prefer to fade the one-sided action than follow it.

The situation (high stakes game between division rivals with playoff implications) lends itself more so to a lower-scoring affair. Both of these bullpens have been dialed in this month and each starter has “top of the rotation” caliber stuff.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (89-55) meet the Toronto Blue Jays (81-63) Tuesday for the second game of their three-game set at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Rays lead 8-6.

RHP Drew Rasmussen gets the nod for the Rays. Rasmussen is 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA (61 IP, 22 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in seven starts and 25 relief appearances with the Rays and Milwaukee Brewers.

  • Last outing: Win, 12-7, with 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 2 K Sept. 7 at the Boston Red Sox.
  • Starter splits: 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA (27 IP, 7 ER), 0.85 WHIP and 4.0 K/BB.

RHP Jose Berrios is Toronto’s projected starter. Berrios is 11-7 with a 3.52 ERA (166 1/3 IP, 65 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 28 starts for the Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins.

  • Last outing: Win, 6-4, with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 8 K Thursday at the New York Yankees.
  • vs. Rays on the current roster (52 PA): 1.99 FIP with a .085 batting average, .148 wOBA, .287 expected slugging percentage, 40.4 K% and 86.6 mph exit velocity.

Rays at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:53 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Blue Jays -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays +1.5 (-165) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+133)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Blue Jays 7, Rays 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BLUE JAYS (-150) for a half unit only because this is on the absolute fringe of my price range considering the Rays are the defending AL champions with the best record in the league.

However, Toronto is white-hot lately, winning 12 of its last 13 games by an average score of 8.8-4.3 and stack up nicely against Tampa in the pitching departments. The Blue Jays are the most productive lineup in MLB lately.

Toronto’s lineup has 172 wRC+ over the last two weeks – 35 higher than the next closest team. Its top-ranked .427 wOBA over that span is 54 percentage points higher than the second-place club.

Also, the Blue Jays’ relief unit is third in xFIP since the All-Star Game while the Rays are just 16th. Toronto’s bullpen being top-10 in the second half of the year combined with Berrios being a “top of the rotation” starter makes the pitching matchup a wash.

Lastly, we have a “pros vs. joes” situation in the betting market as nearly two-thirds of the cash wagered is on Toronto but a slight majority of the bets placed are with Tampa, according to Pregame.com at the time of writing, and sportsbooks have responded by making the favorite more expensive. In sports betting, you’d much rather follow the money rather than the crowd.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+135) for a tiny wager because the chunky payout is high enough to justify laying it with Toronto against a Rays team that’s 27-9 ATS as road underdogs and 45-23 ATS in division games. The Blue Jays are raking right now and I don’t have a lot of confidence in Rasmussen shutting down this Toronto lineup.

That said, this is the “square” side and I’d rather pay more for Toronto’s money line than chase the value of Blue Jays -1.5 (+135).

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-135) for a half unit because the presumed “sharp” money says Rays-Blue Jays will be a high-scoring affair while the public prefers the Under.

Also, Tampa is 21-14-1 O/U as a road underdog, 38-27-3 O/U against AL East teams and Toronto is 4-0-2 O/U in the last six games.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (83-48) host the Boston Red Sox (75-58) Tuesday for the second of their four-game series at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tampa Bay won 12 of its last 13 games including a 6-1 win in the series opener against Boston Monday.

Season series: Rays lead 8-5.

Boston hadn’t announced its starting pitcher at the time of publishing.

LHP Ryan Yarbrough is Tampa Bay’s projected starter. He is 7-4 with a 4.57 ERA (128 IP, 65 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 18 starts and six relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 0 K in Tampa Bay’s 7-4 victory at the Philadelphia Phillies Aug. 25.
  • Yarbrough is 0-1 against Boston this season with a 12.00 ERA (12 IP, 16 ER), 18 H, 3 BB and 8 K through two starts and one relief outing.
    • vs. Red Sox on the current roster (127 PA): 7.51 FIP with a .383 AVG, .466 wOBA, .616 xSLG, 15.0 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity.

Red Sox at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:08 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Rays -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-165) | Rays -1.5 (+133)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105

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Prediction

Red Sox 7, Rays 5

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Red Sox (+125) for a tiny wager, if at all, because Boston’s lineup rakes against Yarbrough and is solid against left-handed pitching in general. The Red Sox are 11th in wRC+, ninth in wOBA and 12th in BB/K against lefty pitching.

I’m hesitant to sprinkle on the Red Sox because Boston is 4-11 straight up with a minus-37.7% return on investment (ROI) as a road underdog facing a left-handed starter. Also, the Red Sox bullpen is in the bottom-third of several advanced pitching metrics since the All-Star break.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the RED SOX +1.5 (-165) for a tiny wager because the implied win probability of Boston’s run line price is 62.26%, but Boston has a 66.7% cover rate as a road underdog at 26-13 ATS.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-130) for a half unit because of Boston’s aforementioned production at the plate against Yarbrough and left-handed pitching.

Also, since the Red Sox haven’t officially announced their starter yet, I’m assuming it’s going to be a bullpen day, which isn’t a good thing for Boston.

On top of that, the Rays are 13-5 O/U when Yarbrough gets the start and the Over cashed in seven of the past 10 Red Sox-Rays meetings at Tropicana Field.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (63-61) host the Tampa Bay Rays (77-48) Tuesday to start a two-game interleague series at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Rays lead 2-0.

RHP Drew Rasmussen takes the mound for the Rays. Rasmussen is 1-1 with a 3.64 ERA (47 IP, 19 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in four starts and 25 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 0ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Tampa’s 10-0 victory over the Baltimore Orioles Aug. 17.
  • Road splits: 1-1 with a 3.13 ERA (23 IP, 8 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB in three starts and 10 bullpen outings.
  • Starting pitching splits: 0-0 with a 2.77 ERA (13 IP, 4 ER), 5 H, 4 BB and 12 K in four starts.

LHP Ranger Suarez gets the nod for the Phillies. Suarez is 5-4 with a 1.47 ERA (55 IP, 9 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 over four starts and 27 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-2, with 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 4 BB and 2 K Wednesday at the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  • Home splits: 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.75 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB in two starts and 14 bullpen outings.
  • Starting pitching splits: 0-1 with a 2.45 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 10 BB and 11 K in four starts.

Rays at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:48 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+135) | Phillies -1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Rays 6, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the RAYS (-115) for 1 unit because sharp line movement has steamed Tampa up from a -110 favorite on the opening line to the current number and the Rays have an edge in bullpen pitching and hitting.

Tampa’s lineup has the highest wRC+ in August, the third-best wOBA and ninth-best BB/K while Philly’s lineup is below-average in both wRC+ and wOBA.

Both starters are more openers for a bullpen day and if we are going to see a lot of each bullpen then Tampa becomes an even stronger play.

The Rays relievers rank in the top 10 of FIP, home run per nine-inning rate and K-BB% while the Phillies have the third-worst home run per nine-inning rate and the fourth-worst FIP.

Also, Tampa is 10-5 in interleague contests while Philly is just 6-9, and the Rays have the third-best winning percentage on the road.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Phillies have the third-highest cover rate as a home underdog at 15-6 ATS and Tampa only has a plus-2 run differential in interleague games with an 8-7 ATS record despite being 10-5 overall.

The presumed “sharp” side of the market is backing Philly on the run line while the public is betting the Rays -1.5 (+125) and typically you want to follow the money in sports betting.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-102) for a half unit because Tampa is 20-8-2 O/U as a road favorite, these teams have a combined 21-9 O/U record in interleague contests and the Over has cashed in three of the last five Rays-Phillies meetings since the beginning of last season.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (69-44)  meet the Boston Red Sox (65-50) Wednesday at Fenway Park for the second game of their three-game series with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tampa rallied back from a 3-run deficit in the 6th and 7th innings of the series opener before keying the 8-4 victory with a 4-run 9th inning.

Season series: Rays lead 6-4.

LHP Josh Fleming is Tampa’s projected starter. Fleming is 9-5 with a 4.12 ERA (87 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 10 starts and eight relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-3, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 6 K against the Seattle Mariners August 4.
  • Fleming beat the Red Sox July 30 with a stat line of 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 7 K in Tampa’s 7-3 home victory.
  • vs. Red Sox on the current roster (33 PA): 7.82 FIP with a .414 batting average (BA), .482 wOBA, .569 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.2 K% and 89.5 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Nathan Eovaldi makes his 23rd start for the Red Sox. Eovaldi is 9-7 with a 4.07 ERA (126 IP, 57 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 12-4, with 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 4 K Friday at the Toronto Blue Jays.
  • Eovaldi is 1-1 this season against Tampa with a 4.38 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 9 H, 4 BB and 13 K in two starts.
  • vs. the Rays on the current roster (123 PA): 4.88 FIP with a .286 BA, .387 wOBA, .514 xSLG, 23.6 K% and 89.2 mph EV.

Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:07 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+140) | Red Sox +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Prediction

Rays 7, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

BET the RAYS (+100) for 1 unit because they have a significant edge in bullpen pitching and hitting and there’s an obvious “line freeze” situation in the betting market.

For instance, Tampa’s lineup ranks fourth in wRC+, sixth in wOBA and first in hard-hit rate in the majors against right-handed pitching.

Also, Boston’s bullpen is below-average in most advanced pitching metrics while the Rays relievers are top-3 in WAR, SIERA, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning since the All-Star Break.

Furthermore, according to pregame.com, the market is betting Boston at nearly a 60% clip but the line hasn’t budged from the Red Sox (-120) on the opener.

Maybe oddsmakers adjust the line closer to the first pitch, which is why I’d wait to bet this game. Plus if we see “reverse line movement” in Tampa’s direction I’d be okay laying a little vig with the Rays at minus-money.

Either way, I’m BETTING 1 unit on the RAYS (+100) at some point today.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the RAYS -1.5 (+140) for a tiny wager if at all because Tampa has the third-highest cover rate on the road at 36-20 ATS and seven of the 10 Rays-Red Sox meetings this season have been decided by 2 or more runs.

Moreover, Tampa’s lineup could do damage in the late innings for a second straight game against a Boston bullpen that’s bottom 10 in xFIP and SIERA in the second half of the year.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 10.5 (-112) since Tampa’s road games play to the Over at the highest rate in the MLB and the Rays’ AL East games have gone Over at the third-highest rate.

However, that’s probably a big reason why most of the market is also on the Over and I hate following a crowd in sports betting so I’ll stay away from this total.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (65-49) host the Tampa Bay Rays (68-44) Tuesday to kick off a three-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tampa has won eight of its last 10 games, which includes a three-game sweep of Boston, and has passed the Red Sox for first place in the AL East. Boston has lost eight of its last 10 games, all on the road, and is 4 games back of the Rays.

Season series: Rays lead 5-4.

RHP Luis Patino is Tampa’s projected starter. Patino is 2-3 with a 4.42 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in seven starts and two relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-2, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 3 K against the Seattle Mariners August 3.
  • 2021 road splits: 1-1 with a 7.41 ERA (17 IP, 14 ER), 20 H, 6 BB and 20 K in three starts and one bullpen outing.

LHP Eduardo Rodríguez makes his 22nd start for the Red Sox. Rodríguez is 8-6 with a 5.33 ERA (104 2/3 IP, 62 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 10 K at the Detroit Tigers Wednesday.
  • Rodriguez picked up a no-decision June 22 at Tampa with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 7 K in Boston’s 9-5 victory.
  • vs. Rays on the current roster (87 PA): 5.08 FIP with a .267 batting average, .360 wOBA, .325 expected slugging percentage, 27.5 K% and 87.9 mph exit velocity.

Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:54 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Rays 7, Red Sox 5

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the RAYS (+105) because Tampa has beaten the Red Sox in five straight meetings and 13 of the last 17 games in Boston.

Furthermore, the Red Sox’s lineup is starting to regress after the All-Star Break and Tampa’s is peaking. For example, Boston’s lineup ranks in the bottom 10 of wRC+, BB/K and WAR while the Rays are in the top 10 in each of those categories.

Also, Tampa’s bullpen has by far the highest WAR in the second half of the season and ranks in the top 3 of SIERA, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning rate over that span. While Boston’s relief pitching has been mediocre hence their 16th-ranked WAR since the All-Star Game.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Rays +1.5 (-190) because it’s out of my price range but there are so many positive run line trends for Tampa.

For instance, the Rays have the second-best cover rate against divisional foes at 32-18 ATS, the fourth-best cover rate on the road at 35-20 ATS, and are 21-6 ATS as a road underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-120) for a half unit because the Over is 9-1-1 in the last 11 Rays-Red Sox meetings in Boston and Tampa has the second-highest rate of Overs as a road team.

However, my hesitancy is the vast majority of the market is backing the Over and I hate following a crowd in sports betting. Also, the Rays score more than a run per game less against left-handed pitching.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (57-50) continue their three-game series at the Tampa Bay Rays (64-43) Tuesday with first pitch from Tropicana Field scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle won the first game of the series Monday, 8-2, as the Mariners roughed up Rays starting RHP Michael Wacha for 6 earned runs. Seattle’s 1B Ty France stood out by hitting 3-for-5 with 1 home run and 3 RBI.

Season series: Mariners lead 5-0.

LHP Yusei Kikuchi makes his 20th start for the Mariners. Kikuchi is 6-6 with a 4.01 ERA (114 1/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9.

  • Last outing: Loss, 11-4, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 7 K Wednesday against the Houston Astros.
  • Kikuchi beat Tampa June 18 with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 6 K in Seattle’s 5-1 home victory.

RHP Luis Patino is on the mound for the Rays. Patino 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 over six starts and two relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 14-0, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 8 K Thursday against the New York Yankees.
  • 2021 home splits: 1-1 with a 0.61 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 7 H, 4 BB and 16 K in three starts and one bullpen outing.

Mariners at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Rays -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-160) | Rays -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Rays 5, Mariners 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the RAYS (-170) for a half unit – if at all – because we are getting the worst of the number as there has been “sharp” line movement toward Tampa.

Steam on the Rays has pushed them up from a -135 money line favorite on the opener to the current price based on the following reasons: Patino’s fantastic numbers at home, Tampa’s clear-cut edge in relief pitching and the recent acquisition of DH Nelson Cruz should improve the Rays’ hitting vs. left-handed pitching.

First of all, the Rays’ relievers are ranked first or second as a unit in WAR, SIERA, FIP, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning rate.

While Seattle’s bullpen has pitched well this season, we saw a Mariners collapse Sunday against the Texas Rangers thanks in large part to Seattle trading away awesome closing RHP Kendall Graveman at the trade deadline.

Also, Tampa’s lineup struggled against lefty pitching during the first half of the season which prompted the Rays to trade for Cruz who’s deadly vs. left-handed pitching. Moreover, Cruz is 4-for-5 lifetime against Kikuchi with 2 home runs 100.6 mph exit velocity.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since I don’t “like” Tampa enough to lay it with the Rays -1.5 (+125).

Furthermore, Tampa is 18-23 ATS as a home favorite and Seattle is 27-20 as a road underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-125) for a half unit because we are seeing “reverse line movement” despite one-sided action and Over-friendly trends which are most certainly baked into the price.

For instance, according to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the bets placed are on the Over but the Under is heavily juiced and is heading to a flat 8-run total. It’s always a red flag in sports betting when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.

That said, Seattle is 30-16-1 O/U as a road underdog and the Over has cashed in three of the five Mariners-Rays meetings this season.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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