The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Talladega Superspeedway Sunday for the 2022 GEICO 500. The green flag is set to drop a little after 3 p.m. ET (FOX). Below we analyze the 2022 GEICO 500 odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions.
It’s time for the second superspeedway race of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season, and it’s always a free-for-all at Talladega.
It’s wide open as far as potential winners, as the smaller teams have a much stronger chance at places like Daytona and Talladega than at the flat tracks, intermediate/tri-ovals and road courses.
23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace picked up checkers in a rain-shortened Talladega race last October. Before Wallace, the three previous Talladega winners were Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney, who won back-to-back in June 2020 and October 2019 for Penske Racing. Keselowski, when he was with Penske Racing back then, won in his Ford in late April and Hamlin won in August 2022 for Joe Gibbs Racing.
However, in recent seasons we have seen Wallace, Aric Almirola (October 2018) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (May 2017) race to victories, while David Ragan won in May 2013. The playing field is leveled quite a bit, and some of the drivers with longer odds have a legitimate shot here.
2022 GEICO 500: What you need to know
- Petty GMS Motorsports driver Ty Dillon leads all active drivers (minimum 2 starts) with a 12.0 Average-Finish Position (AFP), posting a top 5 among two top 10s and 10 laps led. His best finish at ‘Dega was a 3rd-place run in October 2020, and he has never been worse than 17th.
- Stewart-Haas Racing’s Chase Briscoe, who spun Tyler Reddick on the final lap at last week’s Bristol Dirt Race as the two battled for the win, finished 11th and 14th last season in his first two Talladega Cup starts.
- JTG Daugherty Racing’s Stenhouse Jr. has a win at this track, and the Mississippi native has 6 top-5 runs among 9 top 10s and 104 laps led with a 14.1 AFP in 17 career Cup starts at Talladega.
- Keselowski, now with RFK Racing, leads all active drivers with 6 Talladega checkered flags, posting 9 top-5 finishes with 313 laps led in 26 career Cup starts with a 15.1 AFP.
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GEICO 500 – Expert picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:17 p.m. ET.
Penske Racing’s JOEY LOGANO (+1200) is second behind former teammate Keselowski with 3 Talladega victories under his belt.
Logano last won at this track in the spring 2018 race, and a Ford has ended up on Victory Lane in 10 of the past 13 races at Talladega following Logano’s victory in Octoboer 2015.
In fact, you are in good shape playing either Logano or his teammate RYAN BLANEY (+1000), who has 2 wins among his 3 top-5 finishes with a 17.3 AFP. Penske usually is the team to beat at the Alabama superspeedway.
GEICO 500 picks – Long shot
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (+3000) has some amazingly long odds given his solid track record at Talladega, so let’s take advantage.
As mentioned, Stenhouse won at Talladega back in May 2017, and 9 of his 17 career starts at the track have resulted in top-10 finishes.
However you construct your ticket this weekend, Stenhouse Jr. should be part of ir.
GEICO 500 prop picks
CHASE BRISCOE TOP-10 FINISH
BRISCOE (-190) was one turn short of cashing a ticket as a top-10 finisher last week on the dirt at Bristol before he got tangled up with Reddick. Briscoe showed out in his first 2 forays on the superspeedway last season, going for finishes of 11th and 14th.
His price is a bit high, but there’s a good chance he places top 10 as long as he avoids getting collected in “The Big One.”
TY DILLON TOP-10 FINISH
DILLON (+210) has had amazing success, as mentioned above, finishing 17th or better in his 8-career Cup starts. The driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet isn’t likely to win, as lately it’s a Ford thing at ‘Dega, but Dillon might be right there challenging in the end for a top-10 showing.
COREY LAJOIE TOP-10 FINISH
The Spire Motorsports driver LAJOIE (+250) has had some solid runs so far this season. He started 24th at the Daytona 500, and worked his way up to a 14th-place finish on the superspeedway to open the season. He managed an 11th-place run in the Duel No. 2 during Speedweeks. He had a respectable 15th at Las Vegas, and brought it home 5th at Atlanta after starting 33rd.
LaJoie was 16th in the June 2020 race at Talladega, and 7th in the October 2019 run at this track. This wager is anything but a guarantee, but it’s a solid value.
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