The NASCAR Cup Series is at Talladega Superspeedway Sunday for the 2023 GEICO 500. Green flag is scheduled to drop shortly after 3 p.m. ET (FOX) from Talladega, Ala. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 GEICO 500 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
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GEICO 500: What you need to know
- Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott posted the win at Talladega last fall, turning in an average speed of 153.569 mph, best among all drivers since April 2019, his 1st win at ‘Dega
- Elliott has 2 wins with 5 top-5 finishes in 14 career Cup starts at Talladega with a 14.2 Average-Finish Position (AFP), best among all drivers with at least 3 Cup starts at the track
- TrackHouse Racing driver Ross Chastain won the spring race with an average speed of 148.637 mph
- Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin is on the pole after posting a 180.751 mph best speed in qualifying Saturday
- Brad Keselowski has 6 checkered flags at Talladega with 13 top-10 runs in 28 Cup starts with a 15.7 AFP and 4 DNFs
- Team Penske driver Joey Logano is 2nd among all active drivers with 3 wins at Talladega, posting a 17.9 AFP with 9 DNFs in 28 career Cup starts
- Last week’s winner at Martinsville, Kyle Larson, has struggled at Talladega. He has just 1 top-5 run, and 3 top-10 finishes, in 16 Cup starts with a dismal 22.8 AFP
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GEICO 500 – Expert pick
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:29 a.m. ET.
Team Penske driver RYAN BLANEY (+1000) has a pair of Talladega victories to his name, and he has finished in the Top 5 on 4 different occasions, while leading 228 laps. Blaney also has a respectable 16.0 AFP, with just 4 DNFs in his 17 career Cup starts.
He is a strong value, and he is in desperate need of a victory at a track he has had success. Blaney was a runner-up at Phoenix, but he has been 21st or worse in 4 of his last 8 Cup starts. The time is now for a good finish, and a start at Talladega could be the elixir to cure his ills.
GEICO 500 – Long shot
Front Row Motorsports TODD GILLILAND (+6600) is worth playing lightly, as he has really been running well in recent weeks.
The driver of the No. 36 Ford machine turned in an 8th-place run on the dirt at Bristol 2 weeks ago. He was running well at Martinsville last week, too, posting 4 bonus points after starting a season-best 13th. However, he tumbled down the leaderboard late after running as high as 2nd before dropping a cylinder.
Gilliland’s 25th-place finish at Martinsville due to the mechanical issues snapped a 4-race streak finishing 15th or higher.
GEICO 500 prop picks
AUSTIN CINDRIC OVER AUSTIN HILL (-115)
– Odds from Caesars sportsbook.
Team Penske’s Cindric has finished 9th and 21st in his pair of Talladega Cup starts, good for at 15.0 AFP. It isn’t a huge sample size, but remember, Cindric also has a Daytona 500 win under his belt, and he is more proven on the superspeedway. The 29-year-old Hill was on the pole at the Xfinity race Saturday, but running in Cup is a much different animal.
KYLE BUSCH OVER KYLE LARSON (-110)
– Odds from Caesars sportsbook.
In a little Kyle-on-Kyle action, Rowdy is the play in this head-to-head matchup.
Busch has had mixed results over the years at Talladega, but he does have a win and 9 top-10 finishes in his 35 career Cup starts at the superspeedway. Of course, he also has 7 DNFs, too, as he has been collected in “The Big One” quite frequently.
Larson has really struggled in his 16 Cup starts at the track, however, finishing in the Top 10 just 3 times with 5 DNFs and a terrible 22.8 AFP.
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