Clemson will look to go out at Memorial Stadium on a high note Saturday when No. 10 Wake Forest comes to town for the Tigers’ home finale. Should Clemson pull the upset, it would keep its (small) hope alive of representing the Atlantic Division in the ACC championship game next month.
So what do the Tigers need to do for that to happen? Here are three keys:
Mess up the mesh
Wake Forest (44.7 points per game) has been one of the more potent offenses all season with its spread principles, which isn’t unique to college football. But one element of its attack is.
The Demon Deacons use a much slower mesh point than nearly every other offense when running zone reads, run-pass options or play-action passes, forcing defenses to wait longer to figure out who has the ball and ultimately putting them in more conflict than usual. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney and defensive coordinator Brent Venables have likened it to defending the triple option.
Of course, the way to disrupt that timing is to affect the mesh, which will require a disruptive performance from the Tigers up front.
The linebackers and secondary will need to do their part, too, in order to maintain gap integrity and coverage on the back end against an offense throwing for the third-most yards of anybody in the ACC. But applying pressure in the backfield will force Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman to make quicker decisions on whether he wants to keep the ball or hand it off, which would allow the rest of the defense to know what’s coming sooner and reacting accordingly.
Clemson has been one of the nation’s best all season at doing that, ranking in the top 13 nationally in sacks (3.2 per game) and tackles for loss (7.5). The Tigers will need another pressurized performance from its defensive line, particularly defensive tackles Tyler Davis and Ruke Orhorhoro, who, if they can get push on the interior, can set the tone for everyone else.
And if the Tigers can meet Hartman and his backs at the mesh frequently enough, they could force a turnover or two, which would also help Clemson’s chances.
Give up three instead of six
In a matchup of strength versus strength, though, Clemson’s ACC-leading defense and Wake’s big-play offense figure to both make their share of plays. The Demon Deacons have scored at least 35 points against everyone they’ve played and figure to pose plenty of scoring threats this weekend.
In fact, Wake has made 48 trips to the red zone this season. Only 10 teams in the FBS have visited it more. The Demon Deacons, who rank seventh nationally in red-zone efficiency (93.8%), have turned 34 of those trips into touchdowns, including all five in their win over North Carolina State last week.
Meanwhile, Clemson has made a living turning opposing offenses away — or at least limiting the damage — the closer they get to the end zone. The Tigers own the nation’s top red-zone defense, allowing points on just 13 of 24 trips. Only six times has Clemson given up a touchdown once an opposing offense reaches the 20-yard line.
The defense has bailed Clemson out time and time again with late stops, including a pair of goal-line stands against Georgia Tech and Louisville and a red-zone turnover forced against Boston College. Could the Tigers find themselves in that situation again?
Keeping everything in front would help against an offense that’s produced plenty of chunk touchdowns. And then forcing field goals when Wake Forest does get close would go a long way toward giving Clemson a shot at the end.
Run the ball
Clemson’s offense has to do its part as well. And given the Tigers’ quarterback situation, it’s not hard to figure out which facet needs to come through the most.
D.J. Uiagalelei had made some strides in the passing game before spraining his knee in the first half against Louisville a couple of weeks ago. Then he went an uninspiring 21 of 44 against Connecticut last week, which included an interception, a number of off-target throws and more drops by a receiving corps that’s been further decimated by injuries.
The loss of Justyn Ross means Clemson will be without its top three receivers Saturday, leaving sophomore E.J. Williams and a pair of true freshmen, Beaux Collin and Dacari Collins, as Uiagalelei’s primary targets (along with tight end Davis Allen). Oh, and backup quarterback Taisun Phommachanh is dealing with a banged-up throwing shoulder he injured in his only handful of snaps last week, so how much he’ll be able to do if anything Saturday is unclear.
Clemson will need to find a way to hit on some plays through the air to help loosen up Wake Forest’s defense, but the aforementioned issues make it hard to envision the Tigers being able to do that consistently. Their best chance to consistently move the ball figures to be with a running game that needs to show back up in a big way.
After averaging nearly 168 rushing yards over the previous five games, the Tigers had a stinker against UConn, rushing for just 129 yards on 43 carries against the nation’s 105th-ranked run defense. Wake Forest has been even worse defending the run, allowing nearly 202 yards a game on the ground (112th nationally).
While last week’s performance didn’t inspire much confidence, Clemson was missing its top two running backs in leading rusher Will Shipley (knee) and Kobe Pace (concussion), who were held out in order to get them back to as close to full strength as possible for this week. The Tigers were also without starting lineman Will Putnam (ankle), who’s also expected to play Saturday.
Clemson has only lost once in Swinney’s tenure when it reaches 200 yards on the ground. The Tigers have only rushed for 200-plus yards three times this season, but they’ll need as much help as they can get from a more complete stable of backs and the offensive line with a quarterback who’s hurting and a more mobile backup that may not be available.
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