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In a 3-round heavyweight bout on the main card, Tai Tuivasa and Jairzinho Rozenstruik meet Saturday at UFC 305 at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 305: Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m., and they can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and they can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
Records: Tuivasa (15-7-0) | Rozenstruik (14-5-0)
The Aussie Tuivasa is looking to wash away a 4-bout losing skid. He was choked out by Marcin Tybura in Round 1 last time out in mid-March in the main event. Prior to that, he lost to Alexander Volkov in Round 2 at UFC 293, and he was knocked out by Sergei Pavlovich and Ciryl Gane in the previous 2 matches. He needs a win badly, and will have the pro-Australia crowd to spur him on.
Rozenstruik, a.k.a. “Bigi Boy”, picked up the Round 4 KO/TKO win over Shamil Gaziev last time out in the Fight Night main event in early March. Despite the win, he is still just 4-5 across his previous 9 events since getting dropped in 20 seconds against Francis Ngannou at UFC 249.
Rozenstruik enters this fight with a 3-inch reach advantage over the southpaw, while Tuivasa has a slight 3.96-to-3.44 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Rozenstruik is just a little more accurate at 53.77% with those strikes, while the Aussie comes in at 52.39%.
Neither fighter is keen to get the fight to the mat, as both fighters have 0.00 takedown averages and submission averages, so expect a toe-to-toe brawl.
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UFC 305: Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Tuivasa +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Rozenstruik -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +150 | Under -192)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +400 | No -650)
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UFC 305: Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
It’s a bit of a leap of faith, but back TUIVASA (+190) as the big-time underdog. He will be fighting in front of a raucous RAC Arena in his native Australia, but he is also fighting for his UFC life. He cannot afford a 5th consecutive setback, or it might be the end of him with the promotion.
He’ll have to avoid the long reach of Rozenstruik (-230) if he is able to pull off the upset, as the Suriname fighter has a 3-inch reach advantage. However, the significant strikes landed per minute and the accuracy are basically the same.
The Aussie is 5 years younger, and he’ll have the crowd on his side. It’s now or never for Tuivasa.
Over/Under (O/U)
Neither Under 1.5 Rounds (-192) nor No: Will the fight go the distance? (-650) is worth playing. Both have way too much risk and not nearly enough reward.
A better option for method of victory would be rolling with TUIVASA BY KO/TKO (+270) for a chance to nearly triple up. Neither of these fighters will be able to get the submission, so that method can be mostly ignored.
In addition, Tuivasa hasn’t gone the distance in the past 10 bouts dating back to June 8, 2019, while Rozenstruik hasn’t needed the help of the judges to determine a winner in his past 4 bouts.
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