The Minnesota Vikings made a pair of significant moves when they acquired tight end T.J. Hockenson in 2022. They gave the Detroit Lions a second-round draft pick to acquire him and, after the season, made Hockenson the highest-paid tight end in NFL history, signing a four-year, $66 million extension that has him under contract through 2027.
In 10 games with the Vikings after the trade, Hockenson caught 60 passes for 519 yards and three touchdowns, establishing himself as a critical weapon in Minnesota’s passing game. He built on those numbers in 2023. In 15 games, despite injuries that resulted in Hockenson catching passes from four different quarterbacks, he landed 95 receptions for 960 yards and five touchdowns.
Then disaster struck.
On Christmas Eve against the Lions, Hockenson suffered a torn ACL that ended his season in an instant and put his short-term future in limbo. What makes his injury doubly troublesome is that Minnesota underwent an offensive transformation since his injury. Kirk Cousins was lured away in free agency with a massive contract from the Atlanta Falcons, the Vikings signed veteran Sam Darnold to act as a bridge quarterback, and traded up in the draft to assure they would land Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
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While Hockenson has been rehabbing his injury, when training camp opened he was immediately placed on the Physically Unable to Perform list, where he will remain for a while. He is missing out on the reps others are getting with Minnesota’s two new quarterbacks, which prevents Hockenson from getting critical timing and familiarity with his QBs.
The typical physical recovery time for a torn ACL is six to nine and often up to 12 months before players look like themselves again. Most would believe that would potentially make Hockenson available to return sometime in September, likely missing the first couple of games. However, due to post-injury swelling in his knee, Hockenson wasn’t able to have surgery until Jan. 29 – more than a month after the injury.
Fantasy football outlook
The Vikings coaches are saying positive things about Hockenson’s progress, but running and cutting in a T-shirt and shorts on a side practice field is very different than playing with pads on against defenders with bad intentions. As a result, Hockenson’s fantasy value has taken a significant hit.
Even on an aggressive timeline, a standard recovery wouldn’t have Hockenson available until at least mid-October. Minnesota has its bye in Week 6, so it would make more sense for the Vikings to have Hockenson start the season on the PUP list and play in Week 5, if ready. If not, he gets more time to rest with a return after the bye week. The Vikings’ medical staff has been cautious in pushing injured players back into action (see Justin Jefferson last season), so Hockenson won’t be rushed.
Despite his injury, Hockenson has an ADP around TE16, which would make him a premium TE2 in 12-team leagues. There’s a lot to like about Hockenson when he’s on the field – he’s caught four or more passes in 22 of 25 games as a Viking – but most savvy fantasy managers greatly devalue players who are guaranteed to miss time and serve no purpose for multiple weeks on a roster. If Hockenson’s ADP remains this high, let someone else make the pick and have one fewer roster spot than others by design for the first six weeks (at a minimum).