Survivor pool strategy – Page 4

Want to win your survivor pool? Who to take in Week 4

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool, starting with who to pick in Week 4.

Another week and another set of unforeseen results. This has become the normal in a weird season.

Few people thought Indianapolis had a chance against Kansas City last week – the Colts won 20-17 as 4.5-point home underdogs. Jacksonville claimed an upset, too, winning as a 6.5-point road dog in shocking the Los Angeles Chargers 38-10.

If you were lucky enough to make it through and you are still with me on this season long journey, let us figure out who the best choices are in Week 4 in your NFL survivor pool.

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– All games Sunday and ET unless noted

The chalk: Green Bay Packers

Who they play: Home vs. New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m.

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers did not have a great game in last week’s 14-12 win at the Buccaneers. He even threw a rare interception, but he threw TD passes to WR Romeo Doubs and WR Allen Lazard. The Packers RB combo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon is better than what the Patriots have faced yet this season. If rookie WR Christian Watson returns this week – a hamstring injury kept him out against Tampa Bay – it only adds another weapon for Rodgers to find in the pass game.

The Patriots are on a downward spiral. The defense gave up 37 points in an 11-point home loss to the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday and Rodgers loves facing an overmatched defense.

On offense, any chance New England had to be successful went down when QB Mac Jones suffered a severe high ankle sprain during the Ravens loss. This type of injury normally requires surgery, but the team is still deciding the best course of action. Either way, Jones will be sidelined this week and Brian Hoyer or rookie Bailey Zappe will get the nod behind center.

This is not going to be a good week for Patriots fans, but it will be a wonderful week for anyone who uses the Packers in their survivor pool. GREEN BAY IS MY FAVORITE SURVIVOR POOL PLAY in Week 4.

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Off the board: Los Angeles Chargers

Who they play: At Houston Texans, 1 p.m.

I would love to make this my chalk play, but with QB Justin Herbert still ailing and OL Rashawn Slater now out for the season (torn bicep), I cannot make it my favorite play.

The Chargers, despite their struggles, are still a good team. They might not be elite as many thoughts they could be, but they are still good.

That’s not the case with Houston. The Texans remind me of the 2021 Detroit Lions. They are not going to get blown out in many games, but they will not win much either.

Houston QB Davis Mills did not look good in Sunday’s 23-20 loss at the Chicago Bears. Even before an interception with the game tied and 1:05 to go – setting up the Bears up for a game-winning FG – Mills showed why the Texans will be in the market for a QB in the 2023 draft. He is perfect for them this season, but he is not the future.

The Chargers secondary, led by S Derwin James, is better than the Bears. While a groin injury to DE Joey Bosa is significant, LB Khalil Mack and company will still get pressure on Mills and affect the run game of Texans RB Dameon Pierce.

This game will be close, but the Chargers will win. So, I still like it as a secondary option in any survivor contest.

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Other to consider

Detroit Lions: Home vs. Seattle Seahawks, 1 p.m.

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Want to win your survivor pool? Who to take in Week 3

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool, starting with who to pick in Week 3.

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With 2 crazy weeks of games in the rearview mirror, we look ahead to Week 3 and the NFL survivor pools which remain intact.

Many dreams have already been busted by the strange outcomes of the first 2 weeks. But for those of you left, we are going to continue to give you plays in hopes you make it to the end and win the final prize.

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All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

The chalk: Los Angeles Chargers

Who they play: Home vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 4 p.m.

Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars come into this game off another home victory over the Indianapolis Colts. After such a key victory in the division, the Jaguars must now travel across the country and play the Los Angeles Chargers and a banged-up Justin Herbert. Banged up or not, I still trust Herbert to win in this situation.

Since 2010, Jacksonville is 1-10 when playing in the pacific time zone. This includes a 0-2 record in 2021 when they lost to both the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks on the road. Jacksonville does not travel well. Their fans will not take over Sofi Stadium the way many road teams fans do.

If Herbert is healthy, this is my favorite play of Week 3.

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Off the board: Cincinnati Bengals

Who they play: At New York Jets, 1 p.m.

In a game the Bengals were supposed to win against the Dallas Cowboys, the Cincinnati Bengals came out and laid an egg on Sunday losing 20-17. While the defense has been good, the offense has been the issue.

Joe Burrow threw 4 INTs in the Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers and never quite got into rhythm against the Micah Parsons-led Dallas defense. A Jets defense, coming off giving up 30 poits to the Cleveland Browns and Jacoby Brissett, could be the cure for that which ails the Bengals.

WR Tee Higgins was limited in Week 2 after being concussed in Week 1. He will be a full go this week. Along with WR Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon in the backfield, the Cincinnati offense should finally wake up against the Jets.

If the Bengals fall to 0-3, their chances of making the playoffs fall significantly. The Bengals also want to avenge a 34-7 loss to the Jets last season. For my ease, and the ease of an easy win, I hope this game gets out of hand early and we cruise to a victory.

[the_huddle]

Others to consider

Philadelphia Eagles: At Washington Commanders, 1 p.m.

Baltimore Ravens: At New England Patriots, 1 p.m.

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Want to win your survivor pool? Who to take in Week 2

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool, starting with who to pick in Week 2.

What a showing we had in Week 1. An NFL survivor pool can be a fickle thing. With all the upsets, you might be one of the last people standing in your pool. If this is the case, congratulations.

I am in a pool with 491 other participants. Because of the Denver and Cincinnati losses combined with the tie from Indianapolis, we are down to 153 left. If you were able to take one of the teams, we highlighted last week in Baltimore or Kansas City, you are sitting pretty. So, now we can look ahead to some plays for Week 2.

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All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

The chalk: Denver Broncos

Who they play: Home vs. Houston Texans, 4:25 p.m.

Houston jumped out to a big lead in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts. If you followed our NFL parlay article you would have seen how much we loved the Texans in that spot. This week is different.

Denver QB Russell Wilson went into Seattle Monday hoping to beat his former team. Instead, after a shocking decision to attempt a 64-yard FG, the Broncos came up just short. Coach Nathaniel Hackett has already come out and admitted his mistake and he will not make the same mistake again. But, in this game, it will not come down to an FG attempt at the end. Denver will jump all over Houston and will be relentless on defense. The Broncos might give up 17 points again. But they will score 28. Much like Baltimore last week, I see this as a double-digit win for Denver. This makes DENVER MY FAVORITE SURVIVOR PLAY of the week.

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Off the board: Baltimore Ravens

Who they play: Home vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.

Miami had a nice showing against the New England Patriots in Week 1. They covered the -3.5 spread while the defense, or really, the lack of New England offense, allowed the game to hit the under.

QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, and a renewed RB Kenyan Drake are quite different from Patriots QB Mac Jones and … no one else. The Dolphins defense will not have the same success against the Ravens in their home opener.

CB Kyle Fuller is gone for Baltimore after suffering a torn ACL in Week 1. But the team still has elite cover corners in Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters to match with WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But the real key will be Baltimore running the ball and milking the clock. Doing so keeps the Miami offense off the field and unable to score. I do not see this game getting out of hand. But I do see the Ravens winning to start the season (2-0).

[the_huddle]

Others to consider

Cincinnati Bengals: At Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.

Green Bay Packers: Home vs. Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m.

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Want to win your survivor pool? Who to take in Week 1

Breaking down the best strategies of how to win your NFL survivor pool, starting with who to pick in Week 1.

NFL survivor pools, no matter what you call them, are fun to participate in. They are easy since you only pick one team per week. All the team has to do is win, no point spread involved.

But survivor pools are also difficult as you can only use a team once during the entire season. Not to mention, if you pick a team and it loses, you are eliminated.

The key is to pick teams which have the easiest path to victory each week. This does not mean using all the best teams first, though. If you do, you will be relying on teams which you don’t want to be counting on when it comes to crunch time at the end of the season. So, make sure to use your teams accordingly.

Don’t forget to look at trends as well.

For instance, the Indianapolis Colts (-7.5), who visit the Houston Texas Sunday, are the largest favorite of Week 1, according to Tipico Sportsbook as of Saturday, 1:23 a.m. ET. However, Indy hasn’t won a Week 1 game since 2013. In coach Frank Reich’s 4 seasons with the Colts, they are 0-4 straight up (SU) and 0-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1.

Are you sure you want to trust them and go against the trend?

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The chalk: Baltimore Ravens

Who they play: At New York Jets, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Chalk or not, I am riding with the Ravens in Week 1.

Jets QB Zach Wilson is out for several weeks with a knee injury. Many might think this is a good thing as backup QB Joe Flacco could be better. I don’t agree. Not only is Flacco more than broken down at this point of his career, but he is also a statue.

Behind an offensive line without OT Mekhi Becton (out for the season with chip fracture in right kneecap) and his replacement Duane Brown (shoulder injury), the Ravens pass rush will be able to get into the Jets’ backfield. With CBs Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey in the secondary, the Ravens will also make it difficult for anything to get going for the Jets on offense.

On the other side of the ball, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will not only run all over the Jets, but he will also use TE Mark Andrews and rookie TE Isaiah Likely to move the ball down the field. Jackson bet on himself by not signing a contract. I will bet on him and the Ravens to beat the overmatched Jets as -7.5-point favorites.

BALTIMORE IS MY FAVORITE SURVIVOR PLAY of the week. It will also be the most common play for many pools.

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Off the board: Kansas City Chiefs

Who they play: At Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

There is likely to be a spot later in the season when the Chiefs will be a more popular pick than this week. Whether it be a game against the Seattle Seahawks or someone else, the Chiefs always get a lot of play in survivor pools.

So, why take them here against what could be a good challenge on the road?

WR Tyreek Hill is gone (off to Miami). But the Chiefs still have QB Patrick Mahomes as well as TE Travis Kelce. The Cardinals secondary is banged up, meaning WRs Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling should have big games in their Kansas City debuts.

On defense, the Chiefs lost CB Tyrann Mathieu (now with the Saints), but they drafted DE George Karlaftis to provide a pass rush alongside DT Chris Jones and DE Frank Clark. This will make a significant difference against a Cardinals team with a sub-par offensive line.

The Cardinals will also be without their best player in WR DeAndre Hopkins (6-game suspension for violating league’s PED policy) and fellow WR Rondale Moore (hamstring), who was downgraded to “out” as of Friday night.

I love the Ravens this week. But if you want to save them for later in the season – or you’re in a survivor pool where you must pick 2 teams – look toward the desert and Kansas City.

[the_huddle]

Others to consider

Philadelphia Eagles: At Detroit Lions, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

San Francisco 49ers: At Chicago Bears, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Tennessee Titans: Home vs. New York Giants, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

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More NFL Week 1 coverage

Want action on any of these games or any other sports matchup? Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, SportsbookWire’s official sportsbook partner in CO and NJ. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Dominick Petrillo on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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