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The Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) will attempt to take down the Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) in the 2023 Super Bowl Sunday in Glendale, Ariz., Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s odds for Chiefs TE Travis Kelce’s Super Bowl prop bets, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
Since the retirement of Rob Gronkowski, Kelce has taken over as the best tight end in the NFL. He is QB Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target and has parlayed that into incredible numbers in both the regular season and the playoffs.
Kelce loves his QB, and the feeling is mutual. With K.C. being without WR Mecole Hardman (on IR) and with WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney being limited at best, Kelce will be forced to be the main man once again. The Eagles will do everything possible to not let him beat them, but it might not be enough as Kelce has a knack for finding the smallest sliver of open space to get a pass thrown his way.
Kelce was only a 3rd-round draft pick in 2013 — out of the University of Cincinnati — because the thought was he wasn’t an in-line blocker in the run game. In today’s NFL, no one cares. He would be a 1st-round pick for sure.
For the Super Bowl, we only care about his offensive abilities for these prop bets.
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Travis Kelce 2023 Super Bowl prop bets
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:51 a.m. ET.
Receiving yards: OVER 78.5 yards (-120)
This is an intriguing line as Kelce has gone Over this total in 1 of the Chiefs’ 2 Chiefs’ postseason game (98 yards vs. Jacksonville). He came up a half a yard short in the other game (78 yards vs. Cincinnati). The Eagles will look to contain Kelce, but it’s going to be difficult as he can find his way open and even when he can’t, Mahomes trusts Kelce to go up and get the ball in coverage.
With 21 catches, 176 yards and 3 TDs this postseason, Kelce has moved into 2nd in career playoff receptions (127), yards (1,427) and TDs (15 tied with Gronk) behind only Jerry Rice (151, 2,245, 22). While Kelce won’t catch Rice in any of those categories in this game, he is going to do everything in his power to get closer. The start of that is by getting OVER 78.5 YARDS receiving.
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Receptions: OVER 6.5 (-170)
Kelce will be force fed the ball. Especially with the injuries to Hardman, Smith-Schuster and Toney. Mahomes will count on Kelce to make plays happen.
With 14 and 7 receptions in the 2 playoff games, 6.5 seems too low.
Kelce is great at down-field catches, but he is just as good getting a jet sweep pass or a shovel pass.
The O/U line of 6.5 is absurdly low, and although the juice is high, it’s still worth putting a little money on. If you can get an alternate line a few receptions higher at +odds, I would consider also.
BET OVER 6.5 receptions (-170).
Touchdown(s)
- Anytime (-140) | 2+: (+475) | 3+: (+1500)
BET ANYTIME (-140) and make a small wager on 3+ (+1500).
This number has gone down a lot since it opened.
Originally at -115 and now at -140, this is still a good play, although it would be better as part of a props parlay.
Kelce has caught a TD in 4 straight playoff games, 8 of his last 9 and 11 of his last 14. He has been a playoff machine, and just because the Eagles had the league’s top defense against the pass this season (179.8 yards per game), it doesn’t mean they’ll completely shut down Kelce. Even if it takes the Chiefs getting to the goal line and having Kelce rush one in, he will get a TD.
As for a complete long shot, I would also place a small wager on 3+ TD (+1500) for Kelce.
Before this season, Kelce had a 3-TD game just once in his career. He had 2 games this season — it helped that Tyreek Hill left for Miami and no current K.C. wideout stepped up as a replacement.
While 3 TDs is not likely, hence the +1500 odds, it’s a fun wager to bet on and cheer for … and if it hits, your $10 bet wins $150.
Receiving yards
- 50+: (-500) | 75+: (-130) | 100+: (+190)
- 125+ (+475) | 150+ (+1200)
BET 100+ (+190).
There is no value at taking either 50 or 75 plus yards as his props total of 78.5 yards is more and the extended juice is not worth it. But taking plus-money for the higher wagers might be something to look at.
Rice holds the record for receiving yards in a Super Bowl at 215. I don’t see this being threatened, but Kelce does have the ability to get Over 100 yards, especially with the limitations of the surrounding receiving weapons on the Chiefs.
Kelce’s playoff average of 98.0 yards (from his 2 games against the Jaguars and Bengals), don’t bode well for this Over to hit. This is why it’s plus-money (+190) and why it should only be a small wager.
OVER 100 receiving yards is a solid play with good value. If you want to be even riskier, 150+ yards (+1200) with a 12-to-1 payoff would be a fun one to hit. If you’re willing to wager that, you might as well take Kelce to win MVP (+1200) and make some smaller plays on different Kelce props such as the OVER 100 yards or to score multiple TDs.
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