Tag: strategy & advice

Fantasy Football DFS Daily Domination: Super Bowl LVIII

Breaking down the top players and sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Super Bowl LVII DFS fantasy football.

It is Super Bowl LVIII week, and this means there is only one game for our DFS enjoyment. Fortunately, all the major sites offer single-game (and even partial-game) contests, often referred to as Showdowns.

These contests introduce different strategies compared to regular full-slate DFS contests, so I will break them down for you besides analyzing the individual players in the game.

First up: The Rules

On DK, you are required to put together a six-man roster for $50k or less, and you must use at least one player from each team. In addition, we must identify one of those six players as your “captain.” The captain receives 1.5x of his total output (including potential negative points). This player also costs approximately 1.5x more when you place them in the captain slot, so you have to weigh the value difference between those extra points versus the extra cost.

On FD, they give you more money ($60k) for fewer spots (only five). You still select a Captain (or as they call it an MVP). The biggest difference, however, is your MVP costs the same as your non-MVPs. There is no penalty for putting a player in that slot. This means that you want the top scorer in your lineup in that slot, regardless of his price.

Second: The Usual Strategies

Much like in regular DFS, you can stack correlative players (QB-WR/TE) or (RB-DEF). The key thing to remember, though, is you need to have at least one player from both teams.

If you believe the game will be one-sided, stack your favored QB along with one of his receiving weapons, plus his RB1, and their defense, and then run it back with a passing game weapon of the opposition.

If you believe the game will be high-scoring and close, then you will probably want to do a stack, including both QBs and at least one receiving option for each team. This is the preferred strategy this week.

If you feel both teams will struggle to score, then you should use both defenses and one or both kickers.

Potential lineups for DK

Captain: Travis Kelce ($15.3k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($10.6k), Brock Purdy ($10.0k), George Kittle ($6.4k), Jauan Jennings ($4.0k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3.0k)

This lineup gives you both QBs and the elite tight end for each team. It also gives you two depth WRs who have seen an uptick in usage recently.

Captain: Christian McCaffrey ($18.0k)
Roster: Deebo Samuel ($9.2k), Brock Purdy ($10.0k), George Kittle ($6.4k), Jake Moody ($5.2k), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($1.2k)

If you believe that the Chiefs’ luck is about to run out and that San Francisco will make this a cakewalk, this lineup gives you exposure to four of the top offensive pieces for San Fran, plus their kicker.

Captain: Rashee Rice ($11.4k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($10.2k), Patrick Mahomes ($10.6k), Isiah Pacheco ($8.0k), Harrison Butker ($5.0k), Jauan Jennings ($4.0k)

Maybe you believe the Niners are paper tigers on defense. This lineup gives you the top four options for KC (including Mahomes), their kicker, and a lottery ticket WR for SF.

Captain: Isiah Pacheco ($12.0k)
Roster: Christian McCaffrey ($12.0k), Kansas City Defense ($3.4k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3.0k), Travis Kelce ($10.2k), Rashee Rice ($7.6k)

Maybe you believe the Chiefs are going to roll into Arrowhead West and deliver a smackdown of epic proportions. This gives you the Chiefs defense, four top offensive weapons, and the unavoidable McCaffrey.

Captain: Christian McCaffrey ($18.0k)
Roster: Rashee Rice ($7.6k), Deebo Samuel ($9.2k), Isiah Pacheco ($8.0k), George Kittle ($6.4k), Kyle Juszczyk ($0.8k)

Despite the astronomical price, it is hard to envision not using CMC in the Captain position. This gives you that play and fills out the roster with non-QB options for both teams. If you choose to use CMC, this is my favorite build.

Captain: Noah Gray ($2.7k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($10.2k), Rashee Rice ($7.6k), Brandon Aiyuk ($8.8k), Brock Purdy ($10.0k), Patrick Mahomes ($10.6k)

Unless you go deep diving at the Captain position, it is hard to fit all the stars into your lineup. This puts a reasonable depth piece into that slot and gives you both QBs and three of the top four passing-game weapons in this game.

Captain: George Kittle ($9.6k)
Roster: Brock Purdy ($10.0k), Travis Kelce ($10.2k), Rashee Rice ($7.6k), Deebo Samuel ($9.2k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3.0k)

This will be one of the few ways to get a QB and four of the top receiving options into the lineup. This is my favorite non-CMC play on DK.

Potential lineups for FD

MVP: Patrick Mahomes ($15.0k) or Brock Purdy ($14.5k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($13.0k), Rashee Rice ($11.0k), George Kittle ($10.0k), Brandon Aiyuk ($10.5k)

Mahomes or Purdy at MVP tied together with two of the top receiving options for each team.

MVP: Christian McCaffrey ($17.5k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($15.0k), Brock Purdy ($14.5k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7.5k), Kyle Juszczyk ($5.5k)

If you want exposure to CMC and both QBs, you need to take some risky backend options.

MVP: Christian McCaffrey ($17.5k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($15.0k) or Brock Purdy ($14.5k), Rashee Rice ($11.0k), Brandon Aiyuk ($10.5k), Noah Gray ($5.5k)

The safer option, if you want exposure to CMC, involves using only one of the QBs. This is my favorite option this week.

MVP: Christian McCaffrey ($17.5k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($13.0k), George Kittle ($10.0k), Isiah Pacheco ($12.5k), Jauan Jennings ($7.0k)

You could also use CMC and the TEs and skip the QBs.

MVP: Christian McCaffrey ($17.5k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($13.0k), Deebo Samuel ($11.5k), Brandon Aiyuk ($10.5k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7.5k)

This is another QB-free lineup I like this week.

MVP: Brock Purdy ($14.5k)
Roster: Deebo Samuel ($11.5k), Brandon Aiyuk ($10.5k), George Kittle ($10.0k), Travis Kelce ($13.0k)

This is an SF-leaning stack with Kelce for the Chiefs.

MVP: Patrick Mahomes ($15.0k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($13.0k), Rashee Rice ($11.0k), Isiah Pacheco ($12.5k), Jauan Jennings ($7.0k)

This one loads up on the Chiefs and runs it back with Jennings.

MVP: Patrick Mahomes ($15.0k)
Roster: Brock Purdy ($14.5k), Travis Kelce ($13.0k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7.5k), Harrison Butker ($9.5k)

Here is a KC-leaning lineup that allows you both QBs.

MVP: Brock Purdy ($14.5k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($15.0k), Deebo Samuel ($11.5k), Brandon Aiyuk ($10.5k), Jauan Jennings ($7.0k)

Here is an SF-leaning lineup that allows you both QBs.

The Game

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Brock Purdy had an up-and-down Conference Championship round. He had some amazing luck as a probable interception bounced off of the defender into Brandon Aiyuk’s arms. He also looked very Patrick Mahomes-esque, breaking off runs while under pressure. Ultimately, he still finished with an uninspiring 267-1 through the air. That was against the worst pass defense remaining in the playoffs. Now, he is facing an elite pass defense. This feels like a 225-1 game with fewer than 25 rushing yards.

Patrick Mahomes’ ending line versus the Ravens was less than the line posted by Purdy. Of course, Baltimore’s defense is light-years better than Detroit’s. The San Francisco pass defense falls somewhere in between those two extremes. The Niners also suffered shock and awe from Detroit for the first half before their defense seemed to wake up. A slow start by the defense here will be much harder to come back from. Mahomes should finish with 250-2, adding another 30 on the ground.

Christian McCaffrey continues to post galactic numbers. The sites have noticed and priced him somewhere in the Andromeda galaxy. There is no easy way to ignore him here. KC is much worse against the run than the pass. So, San Francisco will get McCaffrey the ball as often as he can handle it. Considering his price, seriously consider using him outside of the captain slot on DK. Elijah Mitchell saw four touches last week. He saved his line with a short TD while filling in for McCaffrey after a brief injury. Playing Mitchell isn’t about chasing another one-off score. It is about hoping that McCaffrey gets injured early and misses significant time. I fully support throwing out a lineup featuring him in this role. Just know that you need this to break perfectly to capture the tremendous reward. Jordan Mason hasn’t seen a touch in the playoffs. You can ignore him. Kyle Juszczyk seldom carries the ball, but he has made several crucial catches during his career. He has been very active in the postseason, recording three or more targets in five of his 13 career playoff games. Make him the last man in your build.

Despite playing while banged up, Isiah Pacheco just workhorsed his way to 82 total yards and a score versus Baltimore. The rushing yards came at an ugly 2.8 average. Surprisingly, both San Francisco and Baltimore rank in the bottom third of the league, allowing an average of 4.3 YPC. Despite this, opposing offenses are rushing the ball on a league-low 36.4% of their snaps versus the Niners. Andy Reid refuses to abandon the run. Over their three playoff contests, the Chiefs have run the ball on 46.5% of their snaps. If they keep this ratio here, Pacheco should have a better stat line. Clyde Edwards-Helaire saw three touches last week. He has proved valuable in the past as a fill-in. Much like Mitchell, consider using him in a lineup if you want coverage for a potential Pacheco injury. Making matters potentially more interesting, the Chiefs designated Jerick McKinnon (hernia) for return from IR this week. McKinnon has been a stud in the Super Bowl in the past. If he is active for the game, he makes a sneaky last-man play.

Both teams are top-heavy among their pass catchers. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are both premium WRs. Unfortunately, KC is a terror against the pass. If you have to choose one, go with Deebo. Jauan Jennings was great in the Divisional Round while Samuel was out. He reverted to pumpkin status last week (despite a ridiculous catch). He doesn’t offer enough of a discount to consider seriously. If you want a last-man dart throw, go with Ronnie Bell, Chris Conley (revenge game), or Ray-Ray McCloud instead.

Mahomes trusts Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. The rest of this receiving corps leaves him pulling his hair out. Fortunately, Marquez Valdes-Scantling seems to have finally remembered how to catch a football. Rice’s price is less than Kelce’s, making him a favorite captain option. MVS is seeing just barely enough targets to keep relevant at his price. Consider him as a pivot from Rice in Chiefs-heavy lineups. Justin Watson and Richie James Jr. are great last-man plays. Kadarius Toney may return this week. He is talented, but you do not want to deal with that likely headache. We also can ignore Mecole Hardman Jr. and Justyn Ross.

George Kittle posted a dud versus Detroit. This game won’t be any easier. He has 11 games of playoff experience, but he has topped 40 yards in only three of them while scoring in just two of those games. With the WRs being strangled by KC’s corners, Kittle could see more targets this week. It still won’t make him a preferred player at his price point.

Twenty-one playoff games, 19 playoff TDs for Travis Kelce. He also has topped 70 receiving yards in 12 straight postseason games. When considering your roster build, you may find that you have to choose between Mahomes and Kelce. I’d go with the TE. Noah Gray has five catches on eight targets over the last two weeks. That usage suggests that Mahomes trusts him more than most of his WRs. His discount price makes him a borderline must-start in any Chiefs-heavy build. Blake Bell saw 43% and 44% snap counts in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Last week, he played only 13% of the snaps. Regardless, he has zero targets in any of the games. We can ignore him.

Since the flip of the calendar, Jake Moody has been shaky on FGs. He is only three out of six during his last three games. The extra points add up, but he is nothing more than a run-back play (and arguably too expensive of one) if you stack the Chiefs.

Meanwhile, Harrison Butker continues to show why he is one of the most reliable kickers in history, ranking second ever in field goal percentage. He should be reliable for a floor of eight points this week, but neither kicker makes a powerful play at their price.

The San Francisco 49ers defense should keep this game close, but you are chasing a Pick 6 if you play them.

The Kansas City Chiefs defense blitzed Lamar Jackson into oblivion last week. Purdy doesn’t have the physical or mental tools to overcome this heat, so it will all fall on the offensive game plan. KC should rack up at least three sacks and pick off Purdy multiple times.

The Player Pool

Player DraftKings Captain Salary DraftKings Regular Salary FanDuel Salary
Christian McCaffrey $18,000 $12,000 $11,000
Patrick Mahomes $15,900 $10,600 $15,000
Travis Kelce $15,300 $10,200 $13,000
Brock Purdy $15,000 $10,000 $14,500
Deebo Samuel $13,800 $9,200 $11,500
Brandon Aiyuk $13,200 $8,800 $10,500
Isiah Pacheco $12,000 $8,000 $12,500
Rashee Rice $11,400 $7,600 $11,000
George Kittle $9,600 $6,400 $10,000
Jake Moody $7,800 $5,200 $9,000
Harrison Butker $7,500 $5,000 $9,500
San Francisco 49ers $6,600 $4,400 $8,500
Jauan Jennings $6,000 $4,000 $7,000
Kansas City Chiefs $5,100 $3,400 $9,000
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $4,500 $3,000 $7,500
Elijah Mitchell $4,200 $2,800 $7,000
Justin Watson $3,600 $2,400 $6,500
Noah Gray $2,700 $1,800 $5,500
Mecole Hardman Jr. $2,400 $1,600 $5,500
Kadarius Toney $2,100 $1,400 $6,000
Clyde Edwards-Helaire $1,800 $1,200 $6,500
Kyle Juszczyk $1,200 $900 $5,500
Jordan Mason $900 $600 $5,000
Richie James Jr. $600 $400 $5,500
Blake Bell $300 $200 $5,000
Chris Conley $300 $200 $5,000
Jerick McKinnon $300 $200 $6,000
Justyn Ross $300 $200 $5,000
Ray-Ray McCloud III $300 $200 $5,500
Ronnie Bell $300 $200 $6,000

Daily Fantasy Domination: Conference Championship Round

Breaking down the top players and sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Conference Championships DFS fantasy football.

With only two weeks remaining in the NFL season, the time to pad your pocketbook is drawing to a close. With so few players to choose from nailing the correct sleepers becomes even more important. If you like to enter multiple-lineup GPP tourneys, you can lock up the QB and DST slots with 16 entries, but you still need to pick the correct RBs, WRs, and TEs. If you like to play superflex contests, where you choose to start two QBs, there are only six combinations to choose from. Just realize that a non-QB may outscore that second QB in your SF slot. Lastly, on a short slate such as this, double-TE or triple-TE is a very legitimate strategy.

DFS: The Main Slate: recommended lineups

DK Lineup: QB Brock Purdy ($6.4k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($9.0k), RB Justice Hill ($4.8k), WR Brandon Aiyuk ($6.9k), WR Nelson Agholor ($3.8k), WR Zay Flowers ($5.8k), TE George Kittle ($5.3k), FLEX Sam LaPorta ($5.4k), DST Detroit Lions ($2.6k)

FD Lineup: QB Brock Purdy ($7.7k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($11.0k), RB Justice Hill ($5.5k), WR Brandon Aiyuk ($7.8k), WR Jauan Jennings ($5.3k), WR Nelson Agholor ($5.1k), TE Sam LaPorta ($6.5k), FLEX Travis Kelce ($7.2k), DST Kansas City Chiefs ($3.8k)

FB Lineup: QB Brock Purdy ($6.1k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($8.8k), RB Isiah Pacheco ($6.2k), WR Brandon Aiyuk ($6.8k), WR Jauan Jennings ($4.0k), WR/TE Travis Kelce ($6.1k), TE George Kittle ($5.2k), FLEX Josh Reynolds ($3.8k), SUPERFLEX Lamar Jackson ($7.7k)

Player DraftKings FanDuel
Lamar Jackson $7,700 $8,800
Patrick Mahomes $6,900 $7,500
Brock Purdy $6.400 $7,700
Jared Goff $6,300 $7,200

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Thanks to his rushing ability, Lamar Jackson is once again the safe floor play. That said, there isn’t a poor play. Brock Purdy has the easiest path to 3x value.

Pay to play

Lamar Jackson, Ravens vs. KC
($7,700 DK, $8,800 FD) KC is very good against the pass, but they were just gouged on the ground by Buffalo. This included allowing 72 yards and two rushing TDs to Josh Allen. This shouldn’t surprise anyone, since during the regular season, they ranked 23rd in rushing yards and rushing TDs allowed to opposing QBs. On a short slate like this, Jackson’s floor is higher than everyone else’s ceiling. 

Stay away

Jared Goff, Lions @ SF ($6,300 DK, $7,200 FD) I don’t hate Goff this week, but someone has to be the stay-away selection. He is facing a defense that allowed the eighth-fewest passing TDs during the regular season and that finished with more INTs than TDs allowed. Plus, Goff has averaged one less TD per game on the road than at home.   

Value play

Brock Purdy, Niners vs. DET ($6,400 DK, $7,700 FD) The potential absence of Deebo Samuel (shoulder) won’t help Purdy’s outlook. In each of the games that Samuel has missed (or not finished), Purdy has exactly one passing score. Even if he doesn’t play, this team has enough weapons to succeed against the worst passing defense on the docket. That ranking separation isn’t particularly close. The other three defenses rank first, third, and ninth in passing TDs allowed. Detroit ranks 28th. 

Player DraftKings FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey $9,000 $11,000
Isiah Pacheco $6,500 $7,800
Jahmyr Gibbs $6,400 $7,000
David Montgomery $5,600 $6,000
Gus Edwards $5,500 $5,800
Justice Hill $4,900 $5,500
Elijah Mitchell $4,600 $4,400
Clyde Edwards-Helaire $4,500 $4,600
Jordan Mason $4,300 $4,300
Dalvin Cook $4,200 $4,500
Kyle Juszczyk $4,000 $4,100

Running back

Weekly strategy – Christian McCaffrey gets a tougher matchup this weekend. Still, he always has the highest ceiling. Unfortunately, that ceiling may not equate to 3x value. Isaiah Pacheco and Jahmyr Gibbs are the pivot plays. Justice Hill and Dalvin Cook are potential punt options at RB2. 

Pay to play

Christian McCaffrey, Niners vs. DET
($9,000 DK, $11,000 FD) The potential absence of Deebo Samuel (shoulder) should boost McCaffrey’s production. In three of the four games that Samuel didn’t play or left early, McCaffrey scored multiple TDs. Detroit is tougher against the run than the pass. Only one team allows fewer rushing yards per game. Unfortunately for them, they are allowing over nine yards per reception to opposing RBs. This is where McCaffrey will eat. On a slate with four elite run defenses, McCaffrey’s TD upside makes him the safest play, regardless of his astronomical price. 

Stay away

David Montgomery, Lions @ SF ($5,600 DK, $6,000 FD) It is difficult to decipher who will be the Lions lead back on a week-to-week basis. Neither makes a great play on the ground versus the Niners. Only two teams allowed fewer rushing yards per game. The advantage for Jahmyr Gibbs is that he holds a 3-to-1 advantage in receptions between the pair. This is important since San Francisco allowed the seventh-most RB receiving yards and the fifth-most RB receptions during the regular season. If you have to play a Lions RB this week, make it Gibbs, not Montgomery. 

Value play

Justice Hill, Ravens vs. KC ($4,900 DK, $5,500 FD) I expected that the addition of Dalvin Cook to this offense would hurt Hill more than Gus Edwards. I was wrong. Hill led the team in carries and RB rushing yards last week versus the Houston Texans. Last week, Kansas City allowed 163 total yards to the Buffalo backfield. They were short-handed last week, still, they have allowed more rushing yards per game than any of the remaining teams. If you want McCaffrey in your lineup (and you do), then you have to find some discount options. Hill and Cook are those discount RB2 choices. 

Player DraftKings FanDuel
Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,900 $9,000
Deebo Samuel $7,300 $8,000
Brandon Aiyuk $6,900 $7,800
Rashee Rice $6,500 $7,100
Zay Flowers $5,800 $6,400
Jauan Jennings $4,600 $5,300
Odell Beckham Jr. $4,400 $5,200
Josh Reynolds $4,000 $5,600
Nelson Agholor $3,800 $5,100
Jameson Williams $3,700 $5,000
Rashod Bateman $3,600 $4,900
Skyy Moore $3,500 $4,400
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $3,400 $4,800
Justin Watson $3,300 $4,700
Kadarius Toney $3,200 $4,500
Ray-Ray McCloud III $3,200 $4,400
Kalif Raymond $3,100 $4,700
Ronnie Bell $3,100 $4,600
Devin Duvernay $3,000 $4,100
Donovan Peoples-Jones $3,000 $4,300
Justyn Ross $3,000 $4,200
Mecole Hardman Jr. $3,000 $4,600
Richie James Jr. $3,000 $4,300

Wide receiver

Weekly strategy – Deebo Samuel (shoulder) is questionable (at best) to play. This means Brandon Aiyuk becomes the top WR1 option on this slate. Amon-Ra St. Brown also is usable, but his price is high. Rashee Rice and Zay Flowers are the top WR2 choices. If Samuel is out, Jauan Jennings becomes the clear WR3. Josh Reynolds, Nelson Agholor, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Rashod Bateman, Jameson Williams, and Justin Watson are the other possibilities.

Pay to play

Brandon Aiyuk, Niners vs. DET ($6,900 DK, $7,800 FD) Last week, Aiyuk had a dud versus the Packers. This shouldn’t sway you from starting him this week. Green Bay’s secondary is light-years better than Detroit’s. Over their last five games, Detroit has allowed opposing WR1s to average 9.6-178-1. Assuming that Samuel remains out, this is the easiest play on the slate.

Stay away

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions @ SF ($7,900 DK, $9,000 FD) Since Week 10, San Francisco has allowed an average of 4.3-53-0.5 to opposing WR1s. St. Brown has scored in eight of his last 11 games, but he has topped 100 yards in only five of those contests. He will need both yardage and the TD to reach value as the highest-priced WR on both sites. Considering their prices, it will be a decision whether you choose to use St. Brown or McCaffrey. Fitting both will be nearly impossible. For less money, just use Aiyuk as your WR1 instead.

Value play

Jauan Jennings, Niners vs. DET ($4,600 DK, $5,300 FD) Jennings saw the biggest boost in usage last week after Samuel left the game. His five receptions and 61 receiving yards ranked second on the team. His six targets were also the second-most he has seen this year. The most targets he saw came back in Week 7 versus the Minnesota Vikings, when Samuel was also out. This defense is rotten enough to go full-on Voltron stack with Purdy, McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Jennings, and George Kittle.

  • Note – if Deebo Samuel plays, consider pivoting to Nelson Agholor or Josh Reynolds at a similar price point.
Player DraftKings FanDuel
Travis Kelce $6,600 $7,200
Sam LaPorta $5,400 $6,500
George Kittle $5,300 $6,600
Mark Andrews $5,000 $5,700
Isaiah Likely $4,300 $5,400
Zach Ertz $2,800 $X,XXX
Anthony Firkser $2,500 $4,100
Blake Bell $2,500 $4,200
Noah Gray $2,500 $4,600

Tight end

Weekly strategy – This week, you need to use a double- or triple-TE lineup. The activation of Mark Andrews (ankle) severely diminishes Isaiah Likely’s upside. Do not play Andrews this week.

Pay to play

Travis Kelce, Chiefs @ BAL
($6,600 DK, $7,200 FD) Kelce is now up to 18 touchdowns in 20 career postseason games. He has scored at least once in 12 of the 16 postseason games since Patrick Mahomes became the Chiefs starting QB. Amazingly, Kelce has never faced Baltimore in the postseason. He has faced them five times during the regular season, though. In those games, he has averaged 6.6-87 and scored a pair of TDs. 

Stay away

Mark Andrews, Ravens vs. KC ($5,000 DK, $5,700 FD) Andrews has been activated for this week’s game. Historically, he has been the entire Ravens offense. Now, the team has other weapons to throw to (including his understudy Isaiah Likely). This isn’t a great matchup anyway, as KC has allowed only two TEs to score in their last 12 games. Plus, neither site gives us a discount on Andrews in a game where he most assuredly will be on a snap count. Just look elsewhere this week. 

Value play

Isaiah Likely, Ravens vs. KC ($4,300 DK, $5,400 FD) If you start one of the Ravens tight ends, make it Likely. As detailed above, this isn’t a great matchup. Still, he will see the lion’s share of the snaps for Baltimore this week. He also has scored six times in his last six games. The enormous advantage that Likely provides is that his price on DK is considerably lower than Andrews.

Daily Fantasy Domination: Divisional Round

Breaking down the top players and sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Divisional Round DFS fantasy football.

We are down to eight teams left. After a Wild Card Weekend loaded with blowouts, will we finally see some close games? Will we see more weather terrorism? How about returning injured stars? One thing is for certain. There is money to be won, so let’s go get it!

NFL Divisional Round: recommended DFS lineups

DK Lineup: QB Jared Goff ($6.3k), RB Isiah Pacheco ($6.4k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($8.8k), WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8.2k), WR Josh Reynolds ($3.7k), WR Khalil Shakir ($3.8k), TE Cade Otton ($3.5k), FLEX Gus Edwards ($5.9k), DST San Francisco 49ers ($3.4k)

FD Lineup: QB Jared Goff ($7.6k), RB Justice Hill ($5.3k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($10.8k), WR Romeo Doubs ($6.1k), WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($9.2k), WR Justin Watson ($5.0k), TE George Kittle ($6.4k), FLEX Cade Otton ($5.3k), DST Baltimore Ravens ($4.3k)

FB Lineup: QB Brock Purdy ($6.4k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($8.9k), RB Gus Edwards ($5.5k), WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7.8k), WR Deebo Samuel ($7.1k), WR Odell Beckham Jr. ($4.2k), TE George Kittle ($5.3k), FLEX Cade Otton ($3.5k), FLEX Jared Goff ($6.3k)

Quarterback

Player DraftKings FanDuel
Josh Allen $8,000 $9,400
Lamar Jackson $7,900 $8,700
Patrick Mahomes $6,800 $7,700
C.J. Stroud $6,700 $7,200
Brock Purdy $6,500 $7,800
Jared Goff $6,300 $7,600
Jordan Love $6,200 $7,400
Baker Mayfield $6,000 $7,300

Weekly strategy – Lamar Jackson has the safest matchup, but there isn’t an awful play on the slate. Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield are all much cheaper and should outperform their salaries.

Pay to Play

Lamar Jackson, Ravens vs. HOU ($7,900 DK, $8,700 FD) During the regular season, only one team allowed fewer passing TDs than Houston. This suggests that maybe we should skip Jackson this week. Fortunately for him, Houston allowed the most QB rushing TDs. These two teams faced off way back in Week 1. The Texans held Jackson in check, but Justice Hill and J.K. Dobbins ran in three short TDs. Jackson will get in on the fun this week with at least one on the ground and one through the air.

Stay Away

C.J. Stroud, Texans @ BAL ($6,700 DK, $7,200 FD) The only team to allow fewer passing TDs than the Texans was the Ravens. The big difference is that Houston allowed the eighth-most passing yards while Baltimore allowed the sixth fewest. There is some hope for Stroud in that Baltimore allowed 31% of their league-low 16 passing TDs over their last four games. Plus, he probably will play from behind. Unfortunately, Stroud only has two games this year (including the big game last week) where he has posted monster numbers while facing a top-10 defense. In those six tougher matchups (including Week 1 versus Baltimore), Stroud averaged 211-1 through the air.

value play

Jared Goff, Lions vs. TB ($6,300 DK, $7,600 FD) Tampa allowed only one passing score last week. Of course, that came against a QB with a dislocated finger playing without his top receiver. During the regular season, this defense allowed the fifth-most passing yards. This is amazingly awful when you consider that their regular season included six games against Desmond Ridder, Derek Carr, and Bryce Young. Not to mention games against Gardner Minshew, half a game from C.J. Beathard, and Will Levis in his third career start. Goff threw for a season-high 353 yards against this defense back in Week 6. He will exceed that number in this projected shootout as both teams are stifling against the run.

Running Back

Player DraftKings FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey $8,800 $10,800
Aaron Jones $6,700 $7,400
Jahmyr Gibbs $6,600 $7,300
Rachaad White $6,500 $6,700
Isiah Pacheco $6,400 $7,500
James Cook $6,300 $6,800
David Montgomery $6,100 $7,000
Gus Edwards $5,900 $6,900
Devin Singletary $5,700 $6,400
Elijah Mitchell $5,200 $5,000
Justice Hill $4,800 $5,300
Chase Edmonds $4,700 $4,900
Dameon Pierce $4,600 $4,500
Clyde Edwards-Helaire $4,500 $5,000
AJ Dillon $4,400 $5,100
Jordan Mason $4,400 $4,400
Emanuel Wilson $4,200 $4,600
Ty Johnson $4,200 $4,800
Latavius Murray $4,100 $4,400
Dalvin Cook $4,000 $4,500
Kyle Juszczyk $4,000 $4,100

Weekly strategy – Christian McCaffrey (calf) needs to be your RB1. Aaron Jones has a tough matchup, but he has been playing well. You can say the same about the Detroit backfield and Rachaad White. So, use those four sparingly. If you decide to fade McCaffrey, use a combination of Gus Edwards, James Cook, and Isiah Pacheco. They also are your best choices for RB2.

Pay to Play

Christian McCaffrey, Niners vs. GB ($8,800 DK, $10,800 FD) No one needs to tell you to play McCaffrey. Despite sitting out Week 18, McCaffrey still finished with over 2,000 scrimmage yards and 21 TDs. This was 438 more scrimmage yards than the next closest RB, despite playing one fewer game. Dual-threat backs have gouged Green Bay all season. As long as CMC is not on a snap count, he should post 130 total yards and at least one TD.

Stay Away

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions vs. TB ($6,600 DK, $7,300 FD) During the regular season, Tampa Bay allowed a league-low five RB rushing scores and seven total RB scores. Gibbs has been on fire, scoring seven times over his last six games. Still, it is tough to chase a TD in this matchup, especially when he is splitting backfield touches with David Montgomery. Gibbs missed the earlier meeting versus Tampa, but the remaining RBs totaled just 34 yards on 19 carries. Even if Gibbs does score here, you are going to still need all the other bricks to fall right for him to return 2.5x value.

Value Play

Gus Edwards, Ravens vs. HOU ($5,900 DK, $6,900 FD) There is only one great matchup for an RB this week. That is McCaffrey versus Green Bay. All the other defenses are very solid against the run. Among the other seven teams, the worst of the best is Houston. Last week, the Texans gave up a pair of short-yardage scores to Kareem Hunt, and the week before that Jonathan Taylor ran wild against this defense. Back in Week 1, Baltimore scored three rushing TDs against them. Edwards has a nose for the end zone. He will score this week. Just don’t expect huge yardage, since he still splits carries with Justice Hill and Lamar Jackson.

Wide Receiver

Player DraftKings FanDuel
Amon-Ra St. Brown $8,200 $9,200
Deebo Samuel $7,700 $8,300
Mike Evans $7,200 $7,600
Nico Collins $7,100 $8,700
Stefon Diggs $7,000 $7,500
Brandon Aiyuk $6,900 $7,900
Rashee Rice $6,800 $7,800
Chris Godwin $6,300 $6,900
Zay Flowers $6,000 $7,000
Romeo Doubs $5,600 $6,100
Jayden Reed $5,200 $6,600
Gabe Davis $5,000 $6,000
Dontayvion Wicks $4,900 $5,700
Odell Beckham Jr. $4,600 $5,600
Christian Watson $4,200 $5,800
Rashod Bateman $4,000 $5,100
Khalil Shakir $3,800 $5,900
Josh Reynolds $3,700 $6,100
Nelson Agholor $3,700 $4,900
Jameson Williams $3,600 $5,300
Jauan Jennings $3,600 $4,700
Robert Woods $3,500 $5,300
Skyy Moore $3,500 $4,500
Trey Palmer $3,500 $5,200
John Metchie III $3,400 $5,000
Bo Melton $3,300 $4,600
David Moore $3,300 $4,700
Justin Watson $3,300 $5,000
Kadarius Toney $3,200 $4,600
Kalif Raymond $3,200 $4,600
Ronnie Bell $3,200 $4,500
Trent Sherfield $3,100 $4,600
Andy Isabella $3,000 $4,200
Deonte Harty $3,000 $4,500
Deven Thompkins $3,000 $4,400
Devin Duvernay $3,000 $4,100
Justyn Ross $3,000 $4,300
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $3,000 $4,700
Mecole Hardman Jr. $3,000 $4,800
Richie James Jr. $3,000 $4,400
Xavier Hutchinson $3,000 $4,800

Weekly strategy – Deebo Samuel, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Mike Evans are the best plays of the week. You need two of them in your lineup. Rashee Rice and Zay Flowers would be the pivots. Romeo Doubs had a huge Wild Card week. He has an outside chance to repeat that here. Consider him and the rest of the Packers’ WR room as WR3 options. Otherwise, use Odell Beckham Jr., Khalil Shakir, Josh Reynolds, Jamison Williams, Trey Palmer, Justin Watson, or Mecole Hardman.

Pay to Play

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions vs. TB ($8,200 DK, $9,200 FD) Alpha WRs have pillaged the Buccaneers all year. Back in Week 6, St. Brown eviscerated them to the tune of 12-124-1. That was just one of the 10 games this season where St. Brown has topped 100 receiving yards. St. Brown will have high ownership numbers, but he is the surest WR on this slate.

Stay Away

Stefon Diggs, Bills vs. KC ($7,000 DK, $7,500 FD) Buffalo could see more weather terrorism this weekend. Compounding this with their facing an elite KC pass defense makes this passing offense a risky play. Diggs caught only four of 11 passes in their earlier meeting as he remains mired in a long slump. He has not topped 100 yards in any of his last 12 games and has scored only three times during that span. If you want exposure to this passing offense, use Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kincaid instead.

Value Play

Trey Palmer, Buccaneers @ DET ($3,500 DK, $5,200 FD) Detroit finished the regular season third worst in both WR receiving yards and receiving TDs. Meanwhile, Palmer has scored in two of his last three games while establishing himself as the field-stretcher of the Buccaneers offense. Last week, Detroit allowed seven passes of greater than 20 yards, including two TDs. They have now allowed six 20-plus-yard TDs in their last four games.

Tight End

Player DraftKings FanDuel
Travis Kelce $6,000 $7,100
Sam LaPorta $5,900 $6,600
George Kittle $5,200 $6,400
Mark Andrews $5,000 $6,000
Dalton Kincaid $4,800 $6,200
Isaiah Likely $4,700 $5,500
Dalton Schultz $4,400 $5,800
Luke Musgrave $3,600 $5,100
Cade Otton $3,500 $5,300
Tucker Kraft $3,100 $4,800
Dawson Knox $3,000 $5,100
Brevin Jordan $2,700 $4,700
Blake Bell $2,500 $4,200
Brock Wright $2,500 $4,500
Noah Gray $2,500 $4,600

Weekly strategy – Travis Kelce is a beast in the playoffs. His recent struggles have lowered his price and could lead to lesser ownership. Both Sam LaPorta (knee) and George Kittle (back) have awesome matchups. If neither suffers a setback during the practice week, use them as well. With many players using the above threesome, Dalton Kincaid will be a lesser-owned TE1 pivot. Cade Otton is less expensive than all the above options. His matchup also is juicy. His price makes him an easy FLEX choice, saving you money for the higher-priced WRs.

Pay to Play

Travis Kelce, Chiefs @ BUF ($6,000 DK, $7,100 FD) Kelce has faded this season as teams force the Chiefs to beat them with other weapons. That said, “playoff Kelce” is something to behold. He has 16 career TDs in 19 career games. He even has a passing TD in one of those contests … not to mention that 14 of those TDs have come in his last 13 playoff games. He also has topped 70 receiving yards in each of his last 10 playoff games. Kelce has faced Buffalo twice in the postseason. In those two games, he has posted an average of 10.5-107-1.5. Buffalo has a myriad of injuries in the middle of their defense right now. Kelce is sitting on a beast-mode game.

Stay Away

Dalton Schultz, Texans @ BAL ($4,400 DK, $5,800 FD) Only two teams allowed fewer TE scores this season than Baltimore. Last week, Schultz scored a TD, but that was his only catch. It was his first TD since Week 11 and also marked the lowest number of targets that Schultz has seen since his return from a Week 12 injury. Expect Schultz to catch a few more passes this week, just don’t be shocked when he doesn’t score.

Value Play

Cade Otton, Buccaneers @ DET ($3,500 DK, $5,300 FD) Thanks to a cheap DK price, Otton is the best double-TE option on the board. Over their last five games, Detroit has allowed an average of 4.6-67 to the position. Last week, Otton posted career highs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. In another shootout, he should post another high-water performance.

Fantasy Football DFS Domination: Wild Card Weekend

Breaking down the top players and sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Wild Card Weekend DFS fantasy football.

This is truly a Super Wild Card Weekend. All three sites have posted full weekend slates. In addition, both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering Saturday-only slates, and all three sites are offering Sunday-only slates.

Of course, to confuse us all, FanDuel’s prices fluctuate between the slates. To cover this, in the recommended lineups section, I will use the actual slate-specific pricing, while the rest of this breakdown will be based on the full-slate pricing.

The Saturday-only Slate: recommended DFS lineups

DK Lineup: QB Joe Flacco ($6.1k), RB Isiah Pacheco ($6.4k), RB Devin Singletary ($5.7k), WR Nico Collins ($7.0k), WR Amari Cooper ($6.8k), WR Justin Watson ($3.4k), TE David Njoku ($5.6k), FLEX Travis Kelce ($6.1k), DST Kansas City Chiefs ($2.9k)

FD Lineup: QB Joe Flacco ($7.8k), RB Kareem Hunt ($5.6k), RB Devin Singletary ($6.4k), WR Nico Collins ($8.3k), WR Amari Cooper ($7.5k), WR Justin Watson ($5.2k), TE David Njoku ($7.0k), FLEX Isiah Pacheco ($8.0k), DST Kansas City Chiefs ($4.0k)

*Fanball is not listing a Saturday-only slate, but they will have a Sunday-only one. They also offer a full weekend slate. If you want to play there on Saturday, they have a Saturday-only 5×5 contest, which allows you to select five players from five pricing tiers ($1-$5) as long as your total salary is under $15.

The Sunday-only Slate: recommended DFS lineups

DK Lineup: QB Matthew Stafford ($6.5k), RB Aaron Jones ($6.3k), RB Najee Harris ($5.4k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($9.0k), WR Cooper Kupp ($7.5k), WR Demarcus Robinson ($3.6k), TE Dalton Kincaid ($4.6k), FLEX Jameson Williams ($3.5k), DST Buffalo Bills ($3.5k)

FD Lineup: QB Matthew Stafford ($7.4k), RB James Cook ($7.1k), RB Najee Harris ($6.5k), WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($9.0k), WR Cooper Kupp ($7.5k), WR Brandin Cooks ($6.5k), TE Tyler Higbee ($5.2k) or Davis Allen ($4.8k), FLEX Khalil Shakir ($5.8k) or Dalton Kincaid ($6.0k), DST Buffalo Bills ($5.0k)

*Note play whichever TE starts for the Rams. If you use Higbee, play Shakir. If you use Allen, play Kincaid.

FB Lineup: QB Dak Prescott ($7.2k), RB Najee Harris ($5.1k), RB Aaron Jones ($6.0k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($8.4k), WR Cooper Kupp ($7.1k), WR Jayden Reed ($5.3k), TE Dalton Kincaid ($4.8k), FLEX Brandin Cooks ($4.6k), SUPERFLEX Matthew Stafford ($6.5k)

The Full Wild Card Weekend Slate: recommended DFS lineups

DK Lineup: QB Joe Flacco ($6.1k), RB Devin Singletary ($5.7k), RB Isiah Pacheco ($6.4k), WR Amari Cooper ($6.8k), WR Brandin Cooks ($4.9k), WR Demarcus Robinson ($3.6k), TE David Njoku ($5.6k), FLEX Mike Evans ($6.9k), DST Buffalo Bills ($3.5k)

FD Lineup: QB Matthew Stafford ($7.4k), RB Isiah Pacheco ($8.0k), RB Devin Singletary ($6.3k), WR Cooper Kupp ($7.5k), WR Brandin Cooks ($6.5k), WR Demarcus Robinson ($6.3k), TE Dalton Kincaid ($6.0k), FLEX Aaron Jones ($7.0k), DST Buffalo Bills ($5.0k)

FB Lineup: QB Joe Flacco ($6.0k), RB Tony Pollard ($5.9k), RB Devin Singletary ($5.2k), WR Amari Cooper ($6.3k), WR Cooper Kupp ($7.1k), WR Nico Collins ($6.6k), TE David Njoku ($5.6k), FLEX Mike Evans ($6.5k), SUPERFLEX Baker Mayfield ($6.0k)

Player DraftKings FanDuel
Josh Allen $8,000 $9,300
Jalen Hurts $7,700 $9,000
Dak Prescott $7.600 $8,600
Patrick Mahomes $7,100 $8,000
Tua Tagovailoa $7,000 $7,000
C.J. Stroud $6,800 $7,600
Matthew Stafford $6.500 $7,400
Jordan Love $6,300 $7,600
Jared Goff $6,200 $7,700
Joe Flacco $6,100 $7,800
Baker Mayfield $5.800 $7,200
Mason Rudolph  $5,300 $6,300
Marcus Mariota $5.000 $6,100

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Almost every QB is in play this week. The best matchups go to Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, and Matthew Stafford. Josh Allen and Dak Prescott also have great matchups, but their prices reflect it. Jalen Hurts (finger) has an absurdly juicy matchup, but his team is dealing with WR injuries on top of his own dislocated finger. Mason Rudolph won’t even be playing himself, so don’t get cute.

Pay to Play

Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. GB
($7,600 DK, $8,600 FD) Since their Week 7 bye, Prescott has 20 total TDs over six home games. Green Bay has struggled against the pass all season, despite facing a lengthened stretch of backups, bottom-feeding starters, and underperforming stars. Weather will not be a factor here, so Prescott is a lock for 350-3.  

Stay Away

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins @ KC ($7,000 DK, $7,000 FD) The Dolphins offense is elite, but since Week 9, Tua has been borderline awful. He has only 11 TDs over those nine games. Six of those games featured one or fewer TDs for him. This included a 193-1 performance at Arrowhead. The weather forecast for this contest is frigid. I’m not even sure that the Tyreek Hill revenge game narrative can prop up Tua here.

Value Play

Matthew Stafford, Rams @ DET ($6,500 DK, $7,400 FD) Over their last four games, Detroit has allowed a league-worst 1,375 passing yards. That is 181 more passing yards than the next worst team. Meanwhile, Stafford has 15 of his 24 TDs in his last six games. This game will be a shootout, so both Stafford and Jared Goff will post 300-3.

Player DraftKings FanDuel
Kyren Williams $7,300 $9,000
Rachaad White $6,900 $7,700
De’Von Achane $6,800 $7,400
Raheem Mostert $6,700 $8,200
James Cook $6,600 $7,100
Jahmyr Gibbs $6,500 $7,400
Isiah Pacheco $6,400 $8,000
Aaron Jones $6,300 $7,000
David Montgomery $6,200 $7,600
Tony Pollard $6,100 $7,800
D’Andre Swift $6,000 $6,900
Devin Singletary $5,700 $6,300
Jerome Ford $5,500 $6,800
Najee Harris $5,400 $6,500
Jaylen Warren $5,100 $5,600
Kenneth Gainwell $4,900 $4,900
Chase Edmonds $4,800 $5,300
Clyde Edwards-Helaire $4,800 $5,400
Kareem Hunt $4,700 $5,600
Rico Dowdle $4,600 $5,000
Dameon Pierce $4,500 $4,800
AJ Dillon $4,400 $5,300
Leonard Fournette $4,400 $4,800
Latavius Murray $4,300 $4,200
Jeff Wilson Jr. $4,200 $5,000
Jerick McKinnon $4,000 $4,800

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Only Isiah Pacheco has a positive matchup. Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, and De’Von Achane are all riding fiery streaks, but with so many stud WRs this week, throw your money elsewhere. Devin Singletary, Najee Harris, and Jerome Ford provide the needed salary relief to go massive at WR. Rico Dowdle and Kareem Hunt are the two safe punt plays.

Pay to Play

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs vs. MIA ($6,400 DK, $8,000 FD) Miami has allowed the third-most 1.5 opponent rushing scores per game on the road. With foul weather looming, both teams will lean on their ground games. Pacheco has scored in each of his last four games. This will make it five in a row.

Stay Away

Kyren Williams, Rams @ DET
($7,300 DK, $9,000 FD) Williams continues to score TDs. He has played in 12 games and scored in nine of them. Unfortunately, only four of those 12 matchups were against top-15 run defenses; and two of those four defenses held him out of the end zone. Detroit has the top-ranked defense against the run. Since Week 11, only two RBs have reached double-digit PPR points against them. If you use Williams here, you are chasing a TD. Even then, you won’t hit 2.5x value.

Value Play

Devin Singletary, Texans vs. CLE ($5,700 DK, $6,300 FD) In Week 16, Singletary posted a dud against Cleveland. Of course, that game featured Case Keenum and Davis Mills at QB for the Texans. With C.J. Stroud back, this offense is back on track. Singletary has been the leader of this backfield since Week 7 and Dameon Pierce didn’t see any offensive snaps last week. With Singletary being the singular focus of this rushing attack, look for him to score once again.

Player DraftKings FanDuel
CeeDee Lamb $9,000 $10,000
Tyreek Hill $8,700 $9,400
A.J. Brown $8,100 $8,200
Amon-Ra St. Brown $8,000 $9,000
Cooper Kupp $7,500 $7,500
Stefon Diggs $7,400 $7,700
Puka Nacua $7,200 $8,000
Nico Collins $7,000 $8,300
Mike Evans $6,900 $8,400
Amari Cooper $6,800 $7,500
DeVonta Smith $6,700 $7,200
Rashee Rice $6,600 $7,800
Jaylen Waddle $6,500 $7,000
Chris Godwin $6,200 $6,900
Jayden Reed $5,700 $7,000
Romeo Doubs $5,400 $5,700
Gabe Davis $5,300 $6,000
George Pickens $5,200 $6,600
Noah Brown $5,100 $6,200
Diontae Johnson $5,000 $6,700
Brandin Cooks $4,900 $6,500
Dontayvion Wicks $4,800 $5,900
Christian Watson $4,500 $6,400
Elijah Moore $4,000 $6,000
Julio Jones $3,900 $5,100
Cedrick Wilson Jr. $3,800 $5,000
Josh Reynolds $3,800 $5,500
Cedric Tillman $3,700 $4,600
Demarcus Robinson $3,600 $6,300
Robert Woods $3,600 $5,300
David Bell $3,500 $5,100
Jameson Williams $3,500 $5,200
Quez Watkins $3,500 $4,400
Justin Watson $3,400 $5,200
Khalil Shakir $3,400 $5,800
Trey Palmer $3,400 $5,400
Bo Melton $3,300 $5,100
Richie James Jr. $3,300 $4,400
Trent Sherfield $3,300 $4,900
John Metchie III $3,200 $4,900
Kadarius Toney $3,200 $4,700
Kalif Raymond $3,200 $5,000
Tutu Atwell $3,200 $4,700
Braxton Berrios $3,100 $4,600
Mecole Hardman Jr. $3,100 $4,900
Michael Gallup $3,100 $4,600
Allen Robinson II $3,000 $4,600
Britain Covey $3,000 $4,100
Chase Claypool $3,000 $4,300
Deonte Harty $3,000 $4,500
Jalen Tolbert $3,000 $4,800
Justyn Ross $3,000 $4,300
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $3,000 $4,800
Olamide Zaccheaus $3,000 $4,500
Skyy Moore $3,000 $4,600
Xavier Hutchinson $3,000 $4,600

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – Tyreek Hill gets the revenge game narrative. He also has arguably the toughest defensive matchup (not that this has ever stopped Hill before). Still, with so many great matchups to choose from, he feels like a fade. You can use CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper (heel), Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua at WR1/WR2. You must use one of them, and you should use two of them. Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Brandin Cooks, and George Pickens are your WR2 pivots. They could also be your WR3 play. Elijah Moore, Julio Jones, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Demarcus Robinson, Jameson Williams, Justin Watson, Khalil Shakir, and whoever starts for Houston are your discount WR3 plays.

Pay to Play

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys vs. GB
($9,000 DK, $10,000 FD) It remains to be seen if Jaire Alexander will be a captain for this game. If Alexander can avoid his coach suspending him, he will track Lamb all over the field. Alexander is very good, but Lamb is even better. Since their Week 7 bye, Lamb is averaging greater than nine receptions and 124 total yards per game. He also has 13 TDs over that span. During that stretch, he has scored in all but one game. The Cowboys will score at will in this one and that means loads of points for Lamb. 

Stay Away

Stefon Diggs, Bills vs. PIT ($7,400 DK, $7,700 FD) Since Joe Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as the Bills offensive coordinator, Diggs ranks 23rd in receptions and 46th in receiving yards among WRs. He also has only scored once during that stretch. Only two teams have allowed fewer WR touchdowns than Pittsburgh. With Gabe Davis (knee) out, Diggs may see a boost in targets. He also will see all the double teams.

Value Play

Jayden Reed, Packers @ DAL ($5,700 DK, $7,000 FD) Reed has scored in six of his last eight games. He also has battled various injuries over the last month but has missed only one full game. To stay in this one, Green Bay will need to throw the ball. Look for Jordan Love to force the ball to Reed as often as possible.

Player DraftKings FanDuel
Travis Kelce $6,100 $7,200
Sam LaPorta $6,000 $7,000
David Njoku $5,600 $7,000
Dallas Goedert $4,800 $6,100
Jake Ferguson $4,700 $6,200
Dalton Kincaid $4,600 $6,000
Dalton Schultz $4,400 $5,900
Pat Freiermuth $3,600 $4,900
Tyler Higbee $3,400 $5,200
Tucker Kraft $3,300 $5,300
Luke Musgrave $3,200 $5,100
Cade Otton $3,100 $5,000
Brock Wright $3,000 $4,700
Durham Smythe $3,000 $4,800
Dawson Knox $2,900 $5,000
James Mitchell $2,800 $4,600
Davis Allen $2,700 $4,800
Noah Gray $2,600 $4,600
Brevin Jordan $2,500 $4,400
Harrison Bryant $2,500 $4,400

Tight End

Weekly strategy – There are several good options here this week. Travis Kelce and David Njoku are the big-money sure things. Dallas Goedert, Dalton Schultz, and Dalton Kincaid are the cheap pivots. Tucker Kraft, Cade Otton, Durham Smythe, and Brock Wright are the punt choices.

Pay to Play

David Njoku, Browns @ HOU
($5,600 DK, $7,000 FD) This week, choosing between Travis Kelce and David Njoku will be the key TE decision. Both have great matchups, but one (Njoku) is red hot, and the other (Kelce) has been stuck in neutral. Ultimately, the weather concerns are the biggest dividing point between the two. Look for both to reach 3x value with Njoku outscoring Kelce by a smidgen. At a slightly cheaper price, that makes him the rational choice of the two. 

Stay Away

Jake Ferguson, Cowboys vs. GB ($4,700 DK, $6,200 FD) This isn’t an awful matchup, but it is the worst of the best. We know the Cowboys will score at will, so a TD is definitely in play. That said, both CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks are the safer choices. Since Week 11, Lamb has nine scores, Cooks has five, and Ferguson only has one. Still, chalk up Ferguson for a solid floor of 6-65. Leave him for your Dallas Voltron stacks.

Value Play

Dallas Goedert, Eagles @ TB ($4,800 DK, $6,100 FD) Over the last four weeks, no team has allowed more receptions to the TE position than Tampa Bay. They also have allowed the second-most receiving yards, and the third-most TDs to the position during that span. Goedert may see a boost in targets this week if A.J. Brown (knee) or DeVonta Smith (ankle) are limited or out. Of course, all of this hinges on Jalen Hurts (finger) being able to play through his dislocated finger. If Marcus Mariota plays a meaningful number of snaps, this whole offense is a lost cause.

Daily Fantasy Domination: Week 12 Thanksgiving Edition

Breaking down the top players and sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 12 Saturday Slate DFS fantasy football

As you sit down to enjoy your holiday meal, think back on all the things for which you are thankful. For me, it’s a veritable feast of options to choose from that includes potentially having six above-average QBs and five legitimate TEs. Unfortunately, that means Sunday’s leftovers are gonna suck.

Thanksgiving Day Slate: recommended DFS lineups

DK Lineup: QB Dak Prescott ($6.8k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($8.7k), RB AJ Dillon ($5.4k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($8.7k), WR Michael Gallup ($3.7k), WR Curtis Samuel ($3.6k), TE George Kittle ($6.0k), FLEX Jake Ferguson ($3.9k), DST Detroit Lions ($3.2k)

FD Lineup: QB Dak Prescott ($8.5k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($9.8k), RB Zach Charbonnet ($5.8k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($9.2k), WR Romeo Doubs ($6.2k), WR Brandin Cooks ($5.7k), TE Jake Ferguson ($6.1k), FLEX Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5.4k), DST Seattle Seahawks ($3.3k)

FB Lineup: QB Dak Prescott ($6.9k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($8.8k), RB AJ Dillon ($5.0k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($8.2k), WR Romeo Doubs ($4.7k), WR Brandin Cooks ($4.1k), TE George Kittle ($6.3k), FLEX Jake Ferguson ($4.3k), FLEX Brock Purdy ($6.2k)

Quarterback

Player DraftKings FanDuel
Dak Prescott $6,800 $8,500
Jared Goff $6,300 $7,800
Sam Howell $6,200 $7,300
Brock Purdy $6,100 $7,700
Geno Smith $5,600 $6,600
Jordan Love $5,500 $7,200
Drew Lock $5,000 $6,600

Weekly strategy – Dak Prescott gets the easiest matchup. He is the easy QB1 choice. That said, only Sam Howell‘s matchup concerns me. Whoever starts for Seattle would be my favorite punt play.

Pay to Play

Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. WAS ($6,800 DK, $8,500 FD) Washington just allowed Tommy DeVito to throw for three TDs. When that happens, you should just fold your franchise. The Commanders also have allowed multiple scores to “studs” like Desmond Ridder, Geno Smith, and Tyrod Taylor. Over his last four games, Prescott has 14 TDs. He will add four more here.

Stay Away

Sam Howell, Commanders @ DAL ($6,200 DK, $7,300 FD) Many articles have highlighted that Howell has more passing yards than any other QB. These articles artificially inflate this number since he has not yet had his bye, and since many QBs have missed games because of injury. Still, he has seven games with greater than 250 passing yards. That will be his ceiling this week as only one QB has topped that mark versus Dallas. He will still account for a pair of TDs, but he is the worst option on this slate.

value play

Brock Purdy, Niners @ SEA ($6,100 DK, $7,700 FD) The return of Trent Williams has coincided with back-to-back three TD performances for Purdy. Seattle’s pass defense ranks in the middle of the pack, but the only competent QBs that they have faced are Jared Goff, Sam Howell, and Lamar Jackson. Purdy will chew them up.

Running Back

Player DraftKings FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey $8,700 $9,800
Jahmyr Gibbs $6,800 $8,200
Tony Pollard $6,700 $7,200
David Montgomery $6,300 $7,800
Kenneth Walker III $6,200 $6,500
Aaron Jones $6,000 $6,600
Brian Robinson Jr. $5,900 $6,700
AJ Dillon $5,400 $6,600
Zach Charbonnet $5,300 $5,800
Chris Rodriguez Jr. $4,600 $4,700
Rico Dowdle $4,600 $5,100
Antonio Gibson $4,600 $5,200
DeeJay Dallas $4,400 $4,800
Elijah Mitchell $4,200 $4,900

Weekly strategy – Christian McCaffrey is expensive, but he is a must-own RB1. Both Detroit backs are the pivots. You may just want to choose one of them for RB2. The only other options to consider for RB2 are AJ Dillon and Brian Robinson, Jr. This is clearly the weakest position on the slate, so spend up here.

Pay to Play

Christian McCaffrey, Niners @ SEA ($8,700 DK, $9,800 FD) McCaffrey took only one week off on his TD streak. Last week, he returned to the end zone against an elite Tampa defense; Seattle is not an elite defense. They are barely a competent defense. Over their last three games, the Seahawks have allowed six RB scores. This is not a, “Will CMAC score game?” This is a, “How many times will CMAC score game?”

Stay Away

Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks vs. SF ($5,300 DK, $5,800 FD) At a discount price, many owners will flock to Charbonnet. He will see a lead back’s volume with Kenneth Walker III (knee) likely out, but good luck running against this defense. Charbonnet’s best hope is that he continues to get peppered with targets.

Value Play

Brian Robinson, Jr., Commanders @ DAL ($5,900 DK, $6,700 FD) The injury to Antonio Gibson (toe) allowed Robinson to post a second-consecutive 100-yard game. His bell-cow role will probably continue in the short week. You probably think that Dallas is strong against the run. They are, but they have slipped as their linebacker injuries continue to mount.

Wide Receiver

Player DraftKings FanDuel
CeeDee Lamb $8,700 $9,200
Amon-Ra St. Brown $8,500 $8,500
Brandon Aiyuk $7,000 $7,800
DK Metcalf $6,500 $7,000
Tyler Lockett $6,000 $6,600
Deebo Samuel $5,900 $6,700
Terry McLaurin $5,400 $6,500
Romeo Doubs $5,000 $6,200
Jahan Dotson $4,600 $5,700
Brandin Cooks $4,500 $5,700
Christian Watson $4,300 $5,600
Jayden Reed $4,200 $5,900
Jaxon Smith-Njigba $4,100 $5,400
Michael Gallup $3,700 $5,200
Curtis Samuel $3,600 $5,600
Josh Reynolds $3,500 $5,500
Jameson Williams $3,400 $5,300
Dontayvion Wicks $3,300 $5,000
Jauan Jennings $3,300 $4,800
Jamison Crowder $3,200 $4,600
Jalen Tolbert $3,100 $4,700
Byron Pringle $3,000 $4,700
Donovan Peoples-Jones $3,000 $4,300
Dyami Brown $3,000 $4,700
Jake Bobo $3,000 $4,600
Kalif Raymond $3,000 $4,600
KaVontae Turpin $3,000 $4,500

Weekly strategy – CeeDee Lamb is the top WR1 option. The only other WR1 option is Amon-Ra St. Brown. Unfortunately, it will be hard to afford both of them. WR2 is much deeper. Choose between Romeo Doubs, Brandin Aiyuk, DK Metcalf, or Brandin Cooks. You also may want to use one of them at WR3. If not, you can use Jaxon Smith-Njigba or one of the reserve Commanders or Packers.

Pay to Play

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys vs. WAS ($8,700 DK, $9,200 FD) Even on a down week, Lamb posted his ninth double-digit PPR game of the year. He also added his fifth TD in his last four games. Stack this powerhouse duo and run it back with either Curtis Samuel or Jahan Dotson at WR3.

Stay Away

Terry McLaurin, Commanders @ DAL ($5,400 DK, $6,500 FD) WR1s have struggled vs. this defense. Only five have reached double-digit PPR points against Dallas. Despite a ton of targets, McLaurin has failed to reach that plateau in his last two games. There are better options at this price point.

Value Play

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks vs. SF ($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD) Smith-Njigba has five or more targets in eight of 10 games. This week, the Seahawks will need to throw the ball. Expect JSN to rack up short-yardage receptions as they realize they can’t move the ball on the ground. He may see even more dump-off passes if Drew Lock starts.

Tight End

Player DraftKings FanDuel
George Kittle $6,000 $7,200
Sam LaPorta $5,200 $6,500
Jake Ferguson $3,900 $6,100
Logan Thomas $3,500 $5,200
Luke Musgrave $3,300 $5,000
Noah Fant $2,700 $4,700
Colby Parkinson $2,500 $4,400
Josiah Deguara $2,500 $4,300
Tucker Kraft $2,500 $4,300
Will Dissly $2,500 $4,500

Weekly strategy – George Kittle has been white hot. He is the top option here. Luke Musgrave and Jake Ferguson are the top pivots. Sam LaPorta feels like a trap.

Pay to Play

George Kittle, Niners @ SEA ($6,000 DK, $7,200 FD) Over his last four starts, Kittle is averaging 6-108-0.5. Last week, the Seahawks kept Tyler Higbee in check. That said, over their prior three games, they allowed an average of 8.6-89 to the position. 

Stay Away

Sam LaPorta, Lions vs. GB ($5,200 DK, $6,500 FD) LaPorta has posted back-to-back duds. He also has topped five receptions only three times. Typically, at a thin position, he is a TE1. However, on a loaded slate, his performance doesn’t match his price. Let other owners overpay for his eight points while you pivot elsewhere. 

Value Play

Jake Ferguson, Cowboys vs. WAS ($3,900 DK, $6,100 FD) Last week, Ferguson was vultured of a TD by Luke Schoonmaker. This was a fluke as Ferguson has more targets over the last two weeks than Schoonmaker has on the year. Prior to last week, Ferguson had scored in three straight. He gets back on the horse here.