Tag: straight up picks

Straight-up Super Bowl 57 picks: The Chiefs’ experience or the Eagles’ star power?

Will Kansas City’s championship experience trump Philadelphia’s star power, depth and swarming defense?

The Philadelphia Eagles have the deeper roster. The Kansas City Chiefs have plenty of residual big game experience from years of contending… and also Patrick Mahomes.

That makes Super Bowl 57 a difficult-to-predict matchup between two dominant teams. Philadelphia and Kansas City each claimed their conference crowns after locking down the top seed and coveted first round bye. The Chiefs overcame injury and a game Cincinnati Bengals team to carve their path back to the Super Bowl. The Eagles tarred and feathered the overwhelmed New York Giants and then a San Francisco 49ers team with a quarterback who legitimately could not throw the ball in the second half.

This leaves questions. How much did Cincinnati take out of the Chiefs? Are the Eagles ready for a step up in competition after early leads and the latitude to run the ball more than 63 percent of the team in the postseason?

Our three-man panel is rolling with Kansas City’s battle readiness over Philly’s ability to burn villages to the ground and salt the earth behind it, but it’s close. Scroll down for my explanation below.

Game Christian Robert Charles
Chiefs vs. Eagles Chiefs Chiefs Eagles
Last week: 1-1 2-0 1-1
Year to date: 172-94-2 172-94-2 158-108-2

And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.

Straight-up NFL picks, divisional round: How much magic do the Jaguars and Giants have left?

Two Cinderellas made it through the wild card round. Do the Jaguars and Giants have a chance against their conference’s top seed?

The Jacksonville Jaguars weren’t supposed to be a playoff team. They were 2-6 after eight weeks and appeared destined to play out yet another rebuilding year. The New York Giants were in a similar boat. They had a soft schedule, but the combination of coaching turnover, a depleted cast of receivers and the presence of Daniel Jones behind center pointed to a sixth-straight losing season.

Yet here both teams stand: 1-0 in the playoffs, Super Bowl 57 hopes intact.

They’ll bring those Cinderella stories to another set of underdog circumstances in the divisional round. The Jaguars get the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium, a place where they haven’t won since 2007. The Giants have a third go-round against the Philadelphia Eagles, who’ve already beaten them twice this season (though the second time was against a smattering of backups for a New York team whose playoff position was set in stone).

Both teams are full touchdown underdogs. Can either pull off another round of magic?

Turns out, we’re betting no.

Game Christian Robert Charles
Jaguars at Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
Giants at Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles
Bengals at Bills Bills Bills Bengals
Cowboys at 49ers 49ers Cowboys 49ers
Last week: 4-2 4-2 3-3
Year to date: 168-92-2 168-92-2 153-107-2

And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.

Straight-up NFL picks, Week 18: Pour one out for the Titans

There are only three games on the docket with zero postseason implications. Does that mean we’ll see starters thrive in Week 18?

We’re back.

After a stretch of holiday (and furlough) related vacation, our picks column returns just in time for the completely unpredictable, backup-filled extravaganza that is the final week of the NFL’s regular season. Week 18 features a couple of de facto playoff games — Titans-Jaguars, Lions-Packers — a few more that could define postseason seeding and, fortunately, only three matchups between teams without anything to play for beyond draft position.

Which is great, because our race to crown a regular season picks champion is coming down to the wire. Both myself and Robert Zeglinski stand at a tidy, but not entirely impressive 151-87-2 on the season. Whomever wins this week will claim the crown and etch his name among the slightly-better-than-mediocre tier of expert pickers.

Here’s who we’ve got in Week 18 — a week in which we’re all praying for the recovery of Bills safety Damar Hamlin.

Game Christian Robert Charles
Chiefs at Raiders Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
Titans at Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars
Ravens at Bengals Bengals Bengals Bengals
Buccaneers at Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons
Patriots at Bills Bills Bills Bills
Vikings at Bears Vikings Vikings Vikings
Texans at Colts Colts Texans Colts
Jets at Dolphins Dolphins Jets Jets
Panthers at Saints Panthers Panthers Panthers
Browns at Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
Chargers at Broncos Chargers Chargers Chargers
Giants at Eagles Eagles* Eagles Eagles
Cardinals at 49ers 49ers 49ers 49ers
Rams at Seahawks Seahawks Rams Seahawks
Cowboys at Commanders Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys
Lions at Packers Packers Lions Packers
Last week: 10-6 11-5 11-5
Year to date: 151-87-2 151-87-2 138-100-2

And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.

Straight-up NFL picks, Week 16: Road winners and a de facto playoff game for the Jaguars and Jets

Jaguars-Jets on Thursday night is a de facto playoff eliminator. Eagles-Cowboys isn’t, but it’s gonna be fun — even without Jalen Hurts.

Week 16 of the NFL season will parse down a playoff field where only five teams — the Houston Texans, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals — have been eliminated from the postseason. That means plenty of opportunities for needy teams in a slate filled with road underdogs.

That starts on Thursday night with a de facto playoff game between the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have rallied from 2-6 to make waves in the fecund water park kiddie pool that is the AFC South. The Jets, on the other hand, have slid in the opposite direction and now have to rely on Zach Wilson to reverse those fortunes. That’s a big ask — and it’s got our three-man panel split on the outcome of Week 16’s first game.

That’s one of only three games in which our experts didn’t see eye-to-eye. A do-or-die game between the ugly offenses of the New Orleans Saints and Cleveland Browns is a concern. So is a tragic showdown between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams that once looked like a possible Super Bowl preview but instead is a battle between two putrid teams who don’t even own their upcoming top five draft picks.

Here’s our full slate of picks for Week 16, with explanations below.

Game Christian Robert Charles
Jaguars at Jets Jets Jaguars Jaguars
Bills at Bears Bills Bills Bills
Falcons at Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Seahawks at Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
Giants at Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings
Saints at Browns Browns Saints Browns
Bengals at Patriots Bengals Bengals Bengals
Texans at Titans Titans Titans Titans
Lions at Panthers Lions Lions Lions
Commanders at 49ers 49ers 49ers 49ers
Eagles at Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys
Raiders at Steelers Steelers Raiders Raiders
Packers at Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins
Broncos at Rams Broncos Broncos Rams
Buccaneers at Cardinals Bucs Bucs Bucs
Chargers at Colts Chargers Chargers Chargers
Last week: 11-5 11-5 12-4
Year to date: 141-81-2 140-82-2 127-95-2

And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.

Straight-up NFL picks, Week 15: Lions-Jets? In a game with playoff implications? In December?

Week 14 was a bad week for iffy NFL playoff contenders. We don’t see Week 15 as much of a get-right weekend, either.

Week 14 saw home favorites falter and erstwhile contenders crumble into dust.

Now Week 15 threatens to turn those bad games into genuine tailspins. The tail end of the 2022 regular season is loaded with vital divisional and conference matchups that will ultimately decide this winter’s 14-team playoff field. The New York Giants and Washington Commanders will wage a rematch of their Week 13 draw in a game that will likely send the winner to a Wild Card bid and the loser to a better draft position. The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks will decide who is truly in control of the NFC West: Brock Purdy or Geno Smith.

And the Detroit Lions and New York Jets will meet in a game with wide-ranging postseason implications. In the middle of December!

That left us with a tough slate to parse but plenty of unanimous decisions among our three-man panel. Only three of Week 15’s 16-game schedule created any division among our ranks — Lions-Jets, Titans-Chargers and Rams-Packers. I’ll dive into my reasoning on two of those games below.

Here’s our full lineup of straight-up, moneyline picks for Week 15.

Game Christian Robert Charles
49ers at Seahawks 49ers 49ers 49ers
Colts at Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings
Ravens at Browns Ravens Ravens Ravens
Dolphins at Bills Bills Bills Bills
Chiefs at Texans Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
Falcons at Saints Saints Saints Saints
Giants at Commanders Commanders Commanders Commanders
Lions at Jets Jets Lions Lions
Cowboys at Jaguars Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys
Steelers at Panthers Panthers Panthers Panthers
Eagles at Bears Eagles Eagles Eagles
Cardinals at Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos
Bengals at Buccaneers Bengals Bengals Bengals
Titans at Chargers Titans Chargers Chargers
Patriots at Raiders Raiders Raiders Raiders
Rams at Packers Packers Rams Packers
Last week: 8-5 9-4 7-6
Year to date: 130-76-2 129-77-2 115-91-2

And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.

Straight-up NFL picks, Week 12: Mike White vs. the Vikings pass defense? We’re listening.

Week 13 has a bunch of toss-up games, including Dolphins-49ers and Chiefs-Bengals. So when in doubt … take the home team?

The title of last week’s picks column was “talking ourselves off the Jaguars and fading primetime Kirk Cousins.” Whoops!

Cousins wasn’t great, but did enough to beat the Patriots even on a day where his defense allowed Mac by-god Jones to throw for nearly 400 yards. Jacksonville, on the other hand, got out-gained by nearly 100 yards against the Baltimore Ravens, wisely opted to go for two late in a one-point game and was rewarded by the football gods with a win.

That dampered our hit rate, though Robert Zeglinski was able to rise above the muck and deliver an 11-5 week that tied him for the lead among our three-man panel. In response, I … am fading Kirk Cousins again.

In what is likely an overreaction to Mike White carving up a bad Chicago Bears team, I’ve got the New York Jets winning in Minneapolis this week. Otherwise, it’s a long slate of home underdogs in 50/50 games (or 60/40, in the case of Chiefs-Bengals). That means I’m probably looking down another .500-ish week — but at least it gives me something to talk about.

Here are our expert (“expert”) straight-up picks for Week 13:

Game Christian Robert Charles
Bills at Patriots Bills Bills Bills
Broncos at Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Packers at Bears Packers Packers Packers
Commanders at Giants Giants Commanders Commanders
Jaguars at Lions Lions Jaguars Lions
Jets at Vikings Jets Vikings Vikings
Browns at Texans Browns Browns Browns
Steelers at Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons
Titans at Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles
Dolphins at 49ers 49ers Dolphins 49ers
Seahawks at Rams Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks
Chiefs at Bengals Bengals Chiefs Chiefs
Chargers at Raiders Raiders Raiders Chargers
Colts at Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys
Saints at Buccaneers Bucs Bucs Bucs
Last week: 9-7 11-5 8-8
Year to date: 110-69-1 110-69-1 97-82-1

And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.

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Straight-Up NFL Picks, Week 10: What to make of a maybe-slumping Buffalo Bills?

Are the Titans healthy enough to squash a Broncos revival? Are the Bills’ midseason slumps for real?

Last week’s predictions churned forward with an impressive success rate in a mostly boring week of football. Sure, we may not have seen Aaron Rodgers getting Mon-star’d in Detroit or Josh Allen getting outplayed by Zach Wilson (!), but Week 9 was, for the most part, a fairly standard affair.

Week 10 looks like more of the same, at least on paper. Only four of this week’s 14 games brought any kind of division among our three-man picking crew. It turns out we’re not sure on a possibly Malik Willis-led Tennessee Titans, whatever the Saints and Steelers are cooking up, and the midseason slumps of the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams.

Week 10 will provide a handful of proving ground moments for teams with Super Bowl aspirations. Can the Bills get right against a 7-1 Minnesota Vikings team? Do the Denver Broncos have enough offense to squeeze past Tennessee and keep their slim playoff hopes alive? Will the Green Bay Packers continue to collapse in upon themselves like a dying star?

Here’s our full lineup of straight-up moneyline picks for Week 10 of the 2022 NFL season.

Game Christian Robert Charles
Falcons at Panthers Falcons Falcons Falcons
Seahawks at Buccaneers Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks
Browns at Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins
Broncos at Titans Titans Broncos Broncos
Lions at Bears Bears Bears Bears
Texans at Giants Giants Giants Giants
Jaguars at Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
Vikings at Bills Bills Vikings Bills
Saints at Steelers Steelers Steelers Saints
Colts at Raiders Raiders Raiders Raiders
Cardinals at Rams Rams Cardinals Rams
Cowboys at Packers Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys
Chargers at 49ers 49ers 49ers 49ers
Commanders at Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles
Last week: 10-3 10-3 9-4
Year to date: 87-48-1 82-53-1 76-59-1

And here those pics are in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which sadly struggles to translate to our editing software.

The * for the Titans depends on Ryan Tannehill starting, which it seems as though he will. Otherwise, I’m gonna have to take a long hard look at that game, which probably still leans toward the home team.

Straight-Up NFL Picks, Week 9: A slate stocked with home underdogs

Week 9 doesn’t feature many playoff-defining showdowns … but it does feature plenty of interesting home underdogs.

In Week 8, we all backed Sam Ehlinger at home against the Washington Commanders. We were wrong.

The rookie quarterback played mostly anonymous football and was perhaps one Michael Pittman Jr. drop away from pulling off a fourth quarter comeback against the NFC East’s worst team. Now he’s got to travel to New England and face Bill Belichick, a head coach who revels in embarrassing first year quarterbacks.

Needless to say, we’re off the Ehlinger train. It’s one of 10 games in a slightly uninteresting week where we came to unanimous decisions picking winners. Week 9 doesn’t feature many marquee matchups and nearly 20 percent of the league is on its bye.

Still, given this weekend’s slate home underdogs, Sunday could wind up delivering more than meets the eye. Here’s our full lineup of straight-up moneyline picks for Week 9 of the 2022 NFL season.

Game Christian Robert Charles
Eagles at Texans Eagles Eagles Eagles
Bills at Jets Bills Bills Bills
Panthers at Bengals Bengals Bengals Bengals
Colts at Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
Packers at Lions Packers Packers Packers
Dolphins at Bears Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins
Vikings at Commanders Vikings Vikings Vikings
Raiders at Jaguars Jaguars Raiders Raiders
Chargers at Falcons Falcons Chargers Chargers
Seahawks at Cardinals Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks
Rams at Buccaneers Bucs Bucs Rams
Titans at Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
Ravens at Saints Ravens Ravens Ravens
Last week: 10-5 9-6 9-6
Year to date: 77-45-1 72-50-1 67-55-1

And here those pics are in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which sadly struggles to translate to our editing software.

Straight-Up NFL Picks, Week 8: Betting on the Rams and fading the Giants despite overwhelming evidence

A slate filled with evenly-matched games (and also Packers-Bills) deserves a deep dive and some gut feeling analysis.

Week 7’s underwhelming slate of games led to a handful of upsets but not many close finishes. Week 8 looks better on paper; will it come through?

My chalk-heavy approach last week left me lagging behind the rest of the crowd — one more foot of offense from the Jacksonville Jaguars would’ve helped. This week only features two upsets (Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night and the Los Angeles Rams over the San Francisco 49ers) and another that just feels that way (the New England Patriots winning in New York), none of which are especially interesting.

Otherwise? We’re riding with the Jacksonville Jaguars in their home away from home (London, where they’re 4-2. This doesn’t feel impressive until you realize they’re 23-47 at TIAA Bank Stadium in that same stretch). We’re also betting the Carolina Panthers’ Week 7 revival was a one-off and that the Detroit Lions’ journey to the No. 1 pick in next spring’s draft will continue.

Here’s our full lineup of straight-up moneyline picks for Week 8 of the 2022 NFL season.

Game Christian Robert Charles
Ravens at Buccaneers Bucs Ravens Bucs
Broncos at Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars
Panthers at Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons
Bears at Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys
Cardinals at Vikings Vikings Cardinals Vikings
Dolphins at Lions Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins
Patriots at Jets Patriots Jets Jets
Steelers at Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles
Raiders at Saints Saints Raiders Saints
Titans at Texans Titans Titans Titans
Giants at Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks
49ers at Rams Rams 49ers Rams
Commanders at Colts Colts Colts Colts
Packers at Bills Bills Bills Bills
Bengals at Browns Bengals Bengals Bengals
Last week: 9-5 11-3 10-4
Year to date: 67-40-1 63-44-1 58-49-1

And here those pics are in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which sadly struggles to translate to our editing software.

Straight-Up NFL Picks, Week 7: God help me, I’m riding with Russell Wilson (update: no, I’m not)

Trusting the Jaguars or Broncos? In this economy? Well, when Week 7’s matchups are *this* bad, you’ve got to find value somewhere.

Week 6 was loaded with upsets and marquee showdowns that could define the 2022 NFL playoff race. Week 7, uh, also has a bunch of football games.

This week’s lineup of games is light on compelling matchups. Instead of prognosticating a Bills-Chiefs game right down to the exact final score, Tony Romo and Jim Nantz will bring Fox’s premier broadcasting duo will call … a game featuring the 1-4 Detroit Lions.

Week 7’s primetime games feature a pair of 2-4 clubs on Thursday night, the two-win Pittsburgh Steelers and freefalling Miami Dolphins on Sunday and another nationally broadcast Chicago Bears game on Monday. There’s only one game on Sunday that features two teams with records better than .500, and that’s Titans-Colts — a game that heavily features a team only rescued from primetime embarrassment two weeks ago by Russell Wilson’s creeping case of doofus brain.

That, hopefully, will make this week’s slate a little easier to pick. Week 6 was a fairly successful one for us. A 10-4 record, thanks in part to a late flip from Cardinals to Seahawks, put me at 58-35-1 for the season and broke me into the top 10 among all NFL media experts over at NFL Pickwatch.

Can I capitalize on this momentum? I’m picking Russell Wilson, so … probably not. (Update: Wilson has been ruled out for Week 7 with a hamstring injury. The Jets have swung all the way to road favorites and I’m not backing Brett Rypien. This is a Jets pick now).

Game Christian Robert Charles
Saints vs. Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals
Falcons vs. Bengals Bengals Bengals Bengals
Browns vs. Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Colts vs. Titans Titans Titans Titans
Lions vs. Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys
Packers vs. Commanders Packers Packers Packers
Giants vs. Jaguars Jaguars Giants Giants
Buccaneers vs. Panthers Bucs Buccaneers Buccaneers
Texans vs. Raiders Raiders Raiders Raiders
Jets vs. Broncos Jets Jets Jets
Chiefs vs. 49ers Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
Seahawks vs. Chargers Chargers Seahawks Chargers
Steelers vs. Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins
Bears vs. Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
Last week: 10-4 8-6 9-5
Year to date: 58-35-1 52-41-1 48-45-1

And here those pics are in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which sadly struggles to translate to our editing software.