Tag: Stats

RECAP: Wisconsin’s upset bid falls short as Badgers fall to No. 1 Oregon 16-13

RECAP: Wisconsin’s upset bid falls short as Badgers fall to No. 1 Oregon 16-13

Wisconsin came within a fourth-quarter drive of a program-defining upset on Saturday night. The team’s upset bid fell just short, as the No. 1-ranked Oregon Ducks held on for a 16-13 win.

The Badgers tested the Ducks from the opening kick. Oregon started the game slow with a field goal and red-zone interception in its first two drives. Wisconsin struggled to find much offense through that time and entered the second quarter trailing just 6-0. The stat sheet showed a lopsided first frame, though the Badgers were still hanging tough on the scoreboard.

Wisconsin then found its form in the second frame. A strong defensive effort kept that margin at 6-0 as the Badgers finally found space for RB Tawee Walker. Braedyn Locke found WR Will Pauling for a one-yard touchdown in the quarter’s closing minutes, building a surprising 10-6 halftime lead.

Luke Fickell’s team has played strong first halves against top teams all season. Those results have flipped after the break, leading to final margins of 42-10 vs Alabama, 38-21 vs USC and 28-13 vs Penn State.

Saturday’s contest was different. Wisconsin built its margin to 13-6 during a strong third quarter. The team found more and more running room as the game continued, putting the top-ranked Ducks squarely on the ropes.

Oregon faced a 4th-and-9 deep in Wisconsin territory entering the final frame, a defensive stop that could’ve defined Wisconsin’s upset victory.

Instead, Oregon’s playmakers decided the game down the stretch.

QB Dillon Gabriel found top tight end Terrance Ferguson on a tight-window throw on that 4th-and-9. Oregon RB Jordan James scored a few plays later, notching the score at 13 apiece.

Wisconsin then had several opportunities to regain control on offense and capitalize on the terrific opportunity. Those final drives were punt, punt, turnover on downs and a game-clinching interception. Oregon’s defense took over with the game in the balance.

Oregon escapes Wisconsin with a 16-13 victory, improving to 11-0 on the season and 8-0 in Big Ten play. The Ducks clinch a Big Ten title game appearance with the win.

Wisconsin drops to 5-5 on the season and 3-4 in Big Ten play with the loss. The Badgers must win one of their two closing games at Nebraska and vs. Minnesota to clinch bowl eligibility.

The Badgers put forth an encouraging effort after their disastrous loss at Iowa in Week 10. The sentiment will still reflect a missed opportunity after having the No. 1 team in the sport on the doorstep of defeat.

Contact/Follow @TheBadgersWire on X (formerly Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes, and opinion.

Saints schedule: Calendar change is the good news for New Orleans

Bleacher Report says October sank the Saints’ season. Calendar change is the good news for New Orleans:

We’re at the halfway point of the season. The New Orleans Saints have played 10 games, but other teams with a bye week just hit nine games last week.

Bleacher Report’s Brad Gagnon has isolated a single stat from every team’s season that defines how their season has transpired. For New Orleans, he used 58-136. That’s the Saints scoring margin in October, a month Gagnon believes ruined the season.

When you go on a seven-game losing streak it’s difficult to just point to one month as a season killer. Seven weeks is nearly two months, and technically, the streak went from the end of September to the beginning of November. October is the only month the Saints didn’t win a game.

He compares that stretch to the other six games of the season. The Saints went 3-3 and had a scoring margin of 169-110. That number is exaggerated by blowout victories to start the season.

The Saints have been in close games, but they lost all of their matchups in October by double digits. Comparatively, every other loss has been by three points or less. No team is happier to move into a new month — and get a fresh start — than they are.

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John Tonje breaks Wisconsin program record in Badgers win over No. 9 Arizona

John Tonje broke a program record on Friday:

This story was updated to change a photo.

Wisconsin wing John Tonje continued his torrid start to the 2024-25 season on Friday night, leading the Badgers to a signature win over No. 9 Arizona.

With program legend Bo Ryan honored at halftime and the Badgers’ 2014 and 2015 Final Four teams in the building, the transfer wing came within a basket of breaking Frank Kaminsky’s single-game program scoring record (43 points).

Related: Biggest takeaways from Wisconsin basketball’s big win over Arizona

Instead, he had to settle for the following stat line: 41 points, six rebounds, one assist and one steal on 8-of-14 shooting, 4-of-6 from three and 21-of-22 from the free throw line.

Those 21 free throws broke a program record, previously held by Nigel Hayes (17 made free throws on Jan. 26, 2016).

Tonje’s exceptional foul-line performance was part of Wisconsin shooting 87.2% (41-of-47) overall from the line, a decisive factor in the team’s signature victory. The Badgers entered the contest ranked No. 2 in the nation shooting 92.5% from the charity stripe. Tonje’s performance against the Wildcats embodies a critical combination of volume and efficiency, creating a margin that a top team in Arizona was unable to overcome.

Tonje’s performance continues to be among the biggest stories of Wisconsin’s season to date. He’s up to 94 total points over the four contests (23.5 points per game), seamlessly filling the scoring vacancy created by A.J. Storr’s offseason departure to Kansas.

The Badgers improve to 4-0 on the season with the statement victory. Most importantly, it appears that Greg Gard has found another big-time transfer addition.

Contact/Follow @TheBadgersWire on X (formerly Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes, and opinion.

RECAP: John Tonje stars as Wisconsin basketball upsets No. 9 Arizona

RECAP: John Tonje leads Wisconsin to signature win over No. 9 Arizona

This story was updated to change a photo.

Wisconsin basketball picked up a statement victory on Friday — a 103-88 triumph over the No. 9-ranked Arizona Wildcats.

Transfer wing John Tonje headlined the Badgers’ performance. He finished with 41 points on 8-of-14 shooting and 21-of-22 from the free-throw line. Those 41 points came within just two points of breaking Frank Kaminsky’s single-game program scoring record (43 points), while the 21 free throw makes did break the program’s previous record of 17 (Nigel Hayes, Jan. 26, 2016).

Related: Biggest takeaways from Wisconsin basketball’s big win over Arizona

Wisconsin’s performance was again led by great three-point and free-throw shooting. Greg Gard’s team shot 48% from the floor, 44.4% from three (12-of-27) and 87.2% from the charity stripe (41-of-47). 103-point outings would have sounded impossible for previous iterations of the Badgers. Gard’s new-look, analytics-driven approach is leading to substantial results.

John Blackwell and Max Klesmit combined for 27 points in the victory, walk-on guard Jack Janicki played a big role with nine points off the bench, transfer forward Xavier Amos finished with eight points with two three-pointers made and Kamari McGee continued to excel in his role off the bench.

Every stat leads back to Tonje, who has given Wisconsin a dominant scoring presence that it desperately needed after A.J. Storr’s offseason departure. Tonje’s play and the Badgers’ big win should start to alter expectations moving forward.

Wisconsin improves to 4-0 on the young season with the statement victory. Arizona, meanwhile, drops to 2-1. The Badgers are sure to enter the AP Poll when it is updated next week.

Wisconsin returns to the court on Monday against UT-Rio Grande before a weekend road trip to the Greenbrier Classic.

Contact/Follow @TheBadgersWire on X (formerly Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes, and opinion.

All 32 NFL teams (including the Saints) ranked by FPI ratings

Looking into where the Saints — and all of the rest of the NFL’s 32 teams — sit in ESPN’s FPI ratings going into Week 11:

The New Orleans Saints where able to catch a breath of much-needed fresh air following Sunday’s 20-17 upset victory over the Atlanta Falcons, who have been one of the NFL’s biggest rising teams in 2024.

It also marked the first game of the Darren Rizzi era after the team parted ways with Dennis Allen in a move that hardly surprised anyone.

Now, the Saints hold a -1.3 FPI rating, good for 21st in the NFL. They will host the Cleveland Browns at home this weekend, who head into the matchup with a -0.3 FPI rating, 18th in the NFL.

FPI is described as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” according to ESPN.com.

“FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

So without further adieu, here’s a look at how the league’s 32 teams stack up based on FPI heading into Week 11:

  1. Detroit Lions (8-1): 7.5
  2. Baltimore Ravens (7-3): 7.0
  3. Buffalo Bills (8-2): 6.0
  4. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0): 5.4
  5. San Francisco 49ers (5-4): 4.4
  6. Green Bay Packers (6-3): 4.4
  7. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2): 4.2
  8. Minnesota Vikings (7-2): 2.3
  9. Washington Commanders (7-3): 2.0
  10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2): 1.9
  11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6): 1.7
  12. Arizona Cardinals (6-4): 1.5
  13. Houston Texans (6-4): 1.2
  14. Atlanta Falcons (6-4): 0.8
  15. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6): 0.7
  16. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3): 0.7
  17. New York Jets (3-7): 0.2
  18. Cleveland Browns (2-7): -0.3
  19. Los Angeles Rams (4-5): -0.4
  20. Miami Dolphins (3-6): -0.7
  21. New Orleans Saints (3-7): -1.3
  22. Seattle Seahawks (4-5): -1.4
  23. Chicago Bears (4-5): -1.4
  24. Indianapolis Colts (4-6): -1.6
  25. Denver Broncos (5-5): -2.8
  26. New York Giants (2-8): -4.6
  27. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7): -4.8
  28. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8): -5.1
  29. Tennesee Titans (2-7): -5.2
  30. New England Patriots (3-7): -6.5
  31. Carolina Panthers (3-7): -7.4
  32. Dallas Cowboys (3-6): -8.0

The Saints will look to build upon last week’s statement victory and increase their rating as they prepare to face the Cleveland Browns at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 17.

Kickoff is set for Noon CT/1 p.m. ET at the Caesars Superdome.

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Saints offense has a huge edge on the Browns defense in this key stat

Derek Carr has been one of the best quarterbacks working off of play action, and the Saints should lean into it against the Browns:

Pro Football Focus would suggest the New Orleans Saints offense has one huge advantage over the Cleveland Browns defense. That comes in the form of play action passing.

Derek Carr grades out as one of the best quarterbacks in the league when using play action. The lack of play action was one of the things missing from last year’s offensive game plan. Under Klint Kubiak, PFF grades Carr as the third-best quarterback when using play action. Against play action, the Browns allow the 30th most yards in the NFL.

That creates a matchup between a top-five quarterback and bottom-five defense in this specific stat. You can’t run play action all game, but New Orleans does like to hit shot plays off of play action. We saw it last week with Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s big debut. A defense that allows a good amount of yardage on play action could open the door for more explosive plays like we saw last week.

According to charting from Pro Football Reference, the Saints are tied with the Browns for the 11th-most pass attempts off of play action (72), but New Orleans has been much more successful on those plays. They’re one of six teams to gain 700 or more yards off of play-action passing. If the Saints are going to win back-to-back games, they’ll need to lean on this aspect of their offense.

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Saints have spent more time leading this year than the NFL’s only unbeaten team

The Saints have an advantage in this surprising stat, but it hasn’t translated to success. They’ve spent more time leading than the NFL’s only unbeaten team:

If you needed any further proof that the NFL is a game of moments, look at the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champions have spent less time this year leading the opposition than the Saints. By that stat you’d assume, at the least, the Saints are having a season on par with the Chiefs. That couldn’t be further from the truth.

The Saints currently sit at 3-7 and had a top-5five pick in the NFL draft a week ago. The Chiefs are the NFL’s only undefeated team. These teams are on drastically different paths.

This stat highlights one thing. In clutch moments, the Chiefs rise to the occasion while the Saints falter. Part of the reason the Saints have led for so long this season is they were in the lead for nearly the entire first two games. However late collapses also led to long periods of leaving without ending with a victory.

Kansas City, however, knows how to get victories. They’ve played in close games, but they know how to make timely plays to win. That’s why they have led for 23 less minutes than the Saints but have six more wins.

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Statistical Breakdown: How the Chargers and Bengals stack up before Week 11 game

Here’s how the Chargers and Bengals stack up statistically ahead of Sunday’s matchup.

The Chargers and Bengals are set to square off this upcoming Sunday night.

Here’s how Los Angeles and Cincinnati stack up statistically on both sides of the ball ahead of the Week 11 matchup:

Offense

Category Chargers Bengals
Points per game 20.7 ppg (19th) 27.0 ppg (6th)
Passing offense 196.4 ypg (22nd) 254.8 ypg (4th)
Rushing offense 117.9 ypg (19th) 89.7 ypg (29th)
Total offense 314.3 ypg (22nd) 344.5 ypg (12th)
3rd down conversions 39.84% (13th) 47.29% (3rd)
Red zone scoring 54.17% (18th) 72.41% (2nd)
Sacks allowed 24 (17th) 23 (12th)
Turnovers 4 (T-1st) 10 (8th)

Defense

Category Chargers Bengals
Points allowed 13.1 ppg (1st) 26.2 ppg (26th)
Passing defense 191.6 ypg (9th) 220.2 ypg (23rd)
Rushing defense 110.6 ypg (9th) 127.3 ypg (17th)
Total defense 302.1 ypg (6th) 347.5 ypg (23rd)
3rd down conversions 32.76% (5th) 45.80% (29th)
Red zone defense 38.89% (2nd) 71.88% (31st)
Sacks 31 (T-4th) 17 (28th)
Takeaways 13 (11th) 10 (20th)

 

Saints can’t allow Nick Chubb to have a bounce-back performance

Nick Chubb has struggled since returning from a major injury, and the Browns’ bye week may have been exactly what he needed. The Saints can’t allow him to bounce back:

This can’t be the game Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb returns to form, not if the New Orleans Saints want to win a second consecutive week.

Prior to being injured at the beginning of the 2023 season, Chubb was one of the best running backs in the league. There was hopes he could help add a spark to the Cleveland Browns offense upon his return. That simply didn’t happen.

Chubb’s best game was against Baltimore, where he averaged 3.2 yards per carry and ended with 52 yards.

Struggles should have been expected, and surpassing those expectations should have been a welcomed surprise.

Coming off a bye week seems like an optimal time for Chubb to step up his performance. Facing the Saints’ struggling also presents a chance to return to form. Missed tackles have plagued New Orleans this year.

Allowing Chubb to have a bounce back game will allow to the Browns to unlock their preferred method of offense. It also attacks the weaker point of the Saints defense. That’s a double whammy New Orleans can’t afford.

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Former Saints draft pick spreading his wings with the Eagles

Zack Baun is spreading his wings with the Eagles. It’s hard to call the NFC Defensive Player of the Week a draft bust when the Saints didn’t know how to use him:

Credit where it’s due: Zack Baun is flying high with the Philadelphia Eagles. The former New Orleans Saints draft pick switched teams in free agency, and that decision has paid off. Baun just won recognition as the NFC Defensiive Player of the Week for the first time in his career.

Baun was integral to the Eagles’ dismantling of the NFC East-rival Dallas Cowboys; he totaled 8 tackles (3 solo, with a tackle for loss) plus two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in their 34-6 win. So why wasn’t he putting up those kind of numbers in New Orleans?

For one thing, the Saints didn’t have much of a plan in mind when they traded up to draft Baun back in 2020. To move up from No. 88 to No. 74 (and getting back a seventh rounder in the process), the Saints traded their third rounder in 2021, which wound up falling at No. 91. And once they acquired Baun they didn’t know what to do with him. He weighed in at 6-foot-2 and 238 pounds, which was too light for Dennis Allen to stomach at defensive end, where Baun lined up in college. The coaching staff and scouting department were not in lockstep.

They spent the next few years trying to teach him to drop back in coverage and work in space, but Allen and his coaching staff never developed much confidence in him. After trading up to draft him the Saints picked another  linebacker in both 2021 (Pete Werner, at No. 60) and 2022 (D’Marco  Jackson, at No. 161). He never got a chance in New Orleans, playing almost twice as many snaps on special teams (1,293) as on defense (660) through his 62-game Saints career.

Now the Saints are scrambling for answers at linebacker. Demario Davis isn’t getting younger and the injury bug bit him earlier this year. Pete Werner signed a contract extension this summer but hasn’t proven he can stay on the field either. The Saints already decided Baun couldn’t be part of their solution, but the Eagles have figured out how to get the most out of him. Now we have to wait and see how New Orleans moves next.

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