Tag: Stats

PFF suggests Breshad Perriman as a free agent fit for the Saints

Pro Football Focus picked Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Breshad Perriman as a priority for the New Orleans Saints in 2020 free agency.

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No matter what Mickey Loomis says off the cuff in January, the New Orleans Saints must upgrade their wide receiver corps. Michael Thomas did the heavy lifting last season — catching an NFL-record 149 passes — but the team must surround him with some help. Starting wideout Ted Ginn Jr. is a pending free agent, as is slot specialist Austin Carr (who averaged more than 30 snaps per game when healthy, but was only targeted twice). They can’t afford to bet on sudden leaps from youngsters like Deonte Harris, Tre’Quan Smith, Keith Kirkwood, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey or Emmanuel Butler.

So the analysts at Pro Football Focus picked out one free agent the Saints should pursue: Tampa Bay Buccaneers wideout Breshad Perriman.

It seems like a given that Drew Brees will come back for one last hurrah, and the Saints will return the key members of the roster that ranked fourth in non-quarterback team WAR this past year. Still, Brees could use a low-cost weapon opposite of Michael Thomas. Breshad Perriman has been fairly decent since leaving Baltimore in 2017. He’s dropped just one of 90 targets these past two years, which bodes well for the most accurate quarterback in the NFL. In his most recent season with Tampa Bay, Perriman ended the year red hot by producing the second highest receiving grade over the last five weeks.

Perriman finally broke out in 2019, having spent the previous years shackled to Joe Flacco at quarterback in Baltimore or Hue Jackson running the offense in Cleveland. While his overall catch rate last year was just 52.2%, that’s a product of playing with Jameis Winston. When thrown a catchable ball, PFF credited him with rare success. The leap from Winston to whoever the Saints start at quarterback in 2020 (whether it’s Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, or someone else) can’t be understated.

Interestingly, Perriman stepped up last season when called upon. He spent much of the year behind Pro Bowlers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the depth chart, but they were both on the mend late in December, promoting Perriman to top-receiver duties. He impressed as the focal point of the passing game, gaining 506 receiving yards in his final five games (and 349 yards in his last three). His 17.9 yards per catch would have led the entire Saints team last season.

With so many mouths to feed in Tampa Bay — Winston, Shaquil Barrett, and Ndamukong Suh headline this year’s free agent class, while Godwin is their top priority next offseason — some players aren’t going to stick around. And Perriman could be just what the Saints need.

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Saints players react to Zion Williamson’s big Pelicans debut

New Orleans Saints players Taysom Hill, Craig Robertson, Thomas Morstead, and Michael Thomas were wowed by Pelicans rookie Zion Williamson.

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Zion Williamson finally made his rookie year debut for the New Orleans Pelicans, and a number of Saints players were watching and in attendance. While courtside mainstays like Cameron Jordan and Alvin Kamara were out of town getting ready for the 2020 Pro Bowl, teammates including Taysom Hill and Craig Robertson were tuning in for the game.

So they got a great look at the 6-foot-6, 284-pound 19-year-old’s first regular season game. And Williamson didn’t disappoint, ending his night with 22 points scored, seven rebounds, and three assists, including four difficult three-point shots down the stretch to give the Pelicans the lead. But he was playing on a minutes restriction in his first game back from preseason meniscus surgery, so he wasn’t able to see his team through to a win just yet.

Still, it was a terrific first impression, and should bode well for the future of Pelicans basketball in New Orleans. That’s great news for sports fans in and around the city as well as those Pelicans fans on the Saints roster. Expect to see plenty more crossover episodes as the NBA season — and Williamson’s young saga — marches forward.

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Breaking down the Cardinals’ 2019 rushing attack

The Cardinals used the whole field for their rushing attack under Kliff Kingsbury.

The Arizona Cardinals rushed for 1,990 yards in 2019, good for 10th in the NFL. They averaged five yards per attempt.

Let’s take a look at how the rushes were split up in terms of direction.

They attempted 381 actual rushes. They had 396 rushing attempts on the season, but that includes kneeldowns.

Of those 381 rushes, they attempted to run up the middle more than any other direction, doing so 147 times. That represents a little more than 38% of their rushing attempts. In comparison, they ran up the middle on 202 of their 345 rushing attempts in 2018 — almost 59% of their rushes.

They ranked fifth in the league in rushes up the middle.

The Cardinals used the outside to run quite a bit. They went over the left end 86 times and over right end 65 times. Together, they rushed to the edge 151 times a little more often than they went up the middle. In 2018, they ran to the edges a combined 48 times.

They were second in the league last season in rushes over left end and fourth to right end.

More than 78 percent of their rushes were either up the middle or to the edges.

They ran over left tackle 20 times, over left guard 25 times, over right guard 16 times and over right tackle 22 times. They were in the bottom three in the league in all four directions in attempts and dead last over left tackle and over right guard.

How did they do in each direction?

They averaged 5.14 yards per attempt up the middle, which was fourth in the league. Over left end, they averaged 6.59 yards, also fourth. They were not as good over right end at 4.65 yards, which ranked only 20th.

They were fourth in the league over left tackle at 6.3 yards per rush and second in the league over right tackle at 7.05 yards per rush.

Over left guard, they were 28th in the league at 2.84 yards and dead last over right guard, averaging only 2.0 yards.

It is clear that Kliff Kingsbury’s philosophy in the running game is to use the whole field, attacking in the middle and spreading the run game from sideline to sideline.

Here is a graphic from the NFL Game Statistics & Information System with the data in visual form.

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Listen to the latest from Cards Wire’s Jess Root on his podcast, Rise Up, See Red. Subscribe on Apple podcasts or Stitcher Radio.

Ep. 256

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Ep. 255

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If Teddy Bridgewater leaves in free agency, who could replace him?

The New Orleans Saints will have options to replace Teddy Bridgewater in free agency with Marcus Mariota, Mike Glennon, and other veterans.

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What are the New Orleans Saints going to do at quarterback this year?

It’s an easy question to ask, and almost too simple to try and answer. They should re-sign Drew Brees for one more year, if he’s willing, because he gives the Saints their best shot at winning a Super Bowl title. They should also keep Teddy Bridgewater around as a top-paid backup, because he impressed while winning all five of his starts. And Taysom Hill should return on a cheap restricted free agent tender; he’s a fun weapon who can run and catch, but has shown some serious limitations as a passer. It’s fine if his future isn’t at quarterback.

But things rarely go according to plan in the NFL. Bridgewater should be a hot commodity in free agency — we’ve already highlighted several teams who could try to sign him away from New Orleans. While the Saints can’t afford to pay a starter’s salary to both Brees and Bridgewater (or other top free agents like Dak Prescott, Ryan Tannehill, or Jameis Winston), he’s definitely earned it, and it’s very possible the backup leaves town in pursuit of a starting gig.

So let’s say Bridgewater bows out for greater opportunities, while Brees and Hill remain. Which free agents could the Saints try to recruit in free agency to pad out the depth chart at quarterback? Here are four options that could make sense.

Marcus Mariota

He makes sense if… The Saints see him as a future starter. Mariota is on the outs, having flopped as a high first-round pick with the Tennessee Titans. But it’s not like he was surrounded by offensive masterminds. In fact, he’s had to work with a new coordinator every year he’s played in the NFL. The Saints could offer rare stability for the 26-year-old quarterback, who thrived with similar passing concepts in college. Mariota is kind of similar to Bridgewater, having protected the ball well while struggling to pull the trigger on deep-field throws. Maybe Saints coach Sean Payton can tap into the potential the Titans squandered.

Trevor Siemian

He makes sense if… Payton wants another reclamation project. An ugly ankle injury ended Siemian’s season before it could get off the ground, but he’s a mechanically-sound passer who’s won games in this league. Granted, he’s only gone 13-11 as a starter with the Denver Broncos, but that isn’t far from Bridgewater’s mark of 17-11 with the Minnesota Vikigns. Siemian has shown he can navigate a collapsing pocket and hit receivers in stride. He’d be worth a look as someone who could develop behind Brees and compete with Hill for the starting job in the future.

Chase Daniel

He makes sense if… The Saints aren’t worried about life after 2020. Let’s say that the Saints have a ton of faith in Hill’s projection in the long-term. If he’s their guy after Brees calls it a career, they won’t need a younger option to work with while pursuing a Super Bowl berth next season. Daniel knows the offense well, won’t break the bank, and can provide a steady presence for Brees to workshop new signature handshakes with during his swan song. At 33, he could easily stick around as a safety blanket should Hill struggle in the starting role later on down the road.

Mike Glennon

He makes sense if… Chase Daniel is ready to retire. Maybe Daniel wants to go out on top, with $34.3 million and a couple of Super Bowl rings to his credit. If so, Glennon makes sense as a veteran alternative. Payton has been a fan of Glennon going back to the 2014 NFL Draft, even if the N.C. State product’s career hasn’t gone as hoped. He was immediately replaced by the Chicago Bears when they made an ill-advised trade up for Mitchell Trubisky, and spent last season quietly on the bench behind Oakland Raiders passer Derek Carr. Maybe Payton still likes him enough to ask Glennon to hold a clipboard for a year while Brees chases another Super Bowl.

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2019 Saints season: Reviewing safety J.T. Gray

Our 2019 New Orleans Saints season review continues with special teams ace J.T. Gray, a backup safety who has chipped in impressive efforts.

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We continue our 2019 New Orleans Saints season review with special teams ace J.T. Gray. A safety out of Mississippi State, Gray went undrafted in 2018, and initially made the roster outright before landing on the Saints practice squad. His proficiency in coverage on special teams sold the Saints coaching staff on his skills, and allowed him to stick around in 2019.

While Gray may not be a household name at this point in his career, he played well enough to be recognized with second-team All-Pro honors this season. Gray was one of two Saints special teamers to make the cut All-Pros, along with fellow undrafted teammate Deonte Harris, who garnered first-team All-Pro recognition.

Level of Play in 2019

Gray had a phenomenal season on special teams, and perhaps his most memorable play was his blocked punt in Week 7 against the Chicago Bears. Gray’s high level of play was characterized by making sound football decisions, especially when asked to try and block punts or kicks. This allowed the Saints special teams unit to be one of the best in recent memory.

Gray should be credited for helping creating opportunities in the return game as well. Gray’s ability to block well on the outside during returns played an integral part in allowing Harris to become the league’s most feared return specialist. It was for these reasons that Gray found his way on the All-Pro list.

What to expect in 2020

Gray will be an exclusive rights free agent this offseason. After making just above league minimum in 2019, New Orleans will likely lock him up for 2020 and beyond. Gray has helped reshape the special teams landscape in New Orleans, and should continue to progress knowing he has a spot on the roster going forward.

Gray’s role in the defense could expand come the 2020 season. The defensive back played in three games this season on defense, but never played more than 15% of the snap counts in those appearances. On special teams, his 284 snaps played ranked fifth for the Saints, and nearly tied the total set by Taysom Hill (286). He is clearly a specialist in the kicking game, but he does provide depth to the Saints secondary. With an offseason to prepare, he could end of up competing for a backup role in 2020.

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Saints snap-count analysis from wild-card loss to Vikings

The New Orleans Saints didn’t change much of their snap counts in their wild-card loss to the Minnesota Vikings, but maybe they should have.

What went wrong for the New Orleans Saints in the wild-card round? Some puzzling personnel decisions led to botched opportunities against the Minnesota Vikings, and it ultimately cost them a shot at another Super Bowl berth, which was eluded the Saints for a decade. Here is how each position group split snap counts on Sunday.

Offensive backfield

  • QB Drew Brees, 54 (96%)
  • RB Alvin Kamara, 42 (75%)
  • QB Taysom Hill, 23 (41%)
  • RB Latavius Murray, 15 (27%)
  • FB Ricky Ortiz, 3 (5%)

It’s unclear why Kamara outsnapped Murray so significantly, because Kamara’s play didn’t earn that wide of a disparity. His slump year continued into the playoffs, with Kamara’s longest play amounting to just a 9-yard catch. He averaged just 3.7 yards per touch against the Vikings. He still has a year left on his contract, but the Saints can begin negotiating with him on an extension in March. It’ll be interesting to see whether they they think he’ll be as involved in the offense over the next three years as he’s been in his past three, and if an underwhelming 2019 season was just an aberration due to injuries.

Skills positions

  • WR Michael Thomas, 53 (95%)
  • WR Tre’Quan Smith, 41 (73%)
  • TE Jared Cook, 33 (59%)
  • WR Ted Ginn Jr., 32 (57%)
  • TE Josh Hill, 27 (48%)
  • WR Deonte Harris, 6 (11%)
  • WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey, 3 (5%)

Smith was on the field for 41 snaps and only has one stat in the box score: a drop, which bounced off both of his hands in a pass he should have caught in stride while streaking down the seam. He can’t be playing this often while contributing so little, it’s just a waste of everyone’s time. Cook at least caught all five of his targets; the question there is why the Saints forgot to utilize him until they were down by 10 points late in the game. He should be more involved in his second season with the team, and hopefully youngsters like Smith and Harris will show the team more as they get better-versed in the Saints offense. But they absolutely cannot go into training camp with this same talent-deficit group.

Offensive line

  • T Ryan Ramczyk, 56 (100%)
  • T Terron Armstead, 56 (100%)
  • C Erik McCoy, 56 (100%)
  • G Larry Warford, 56 (100%)
  • G Andrus Peat, 54 (96%)
  • G Nick Easton, 5 (9%)
  • G Patrick Omameh, 1 (2%)

Why wasn’t Peat pulled from this game? He’s been a weak spot in the Saints offensive line for years now, and Easton proved he can play competently at worst when Peat was sidelined by an injury earlier this season. Peat was beaten over and over again by the Vikings defensive line, and it’s no coincidence that Brees immediately connected with his longest pass of the game (on a 20-yard scoring throw to Taysom Hill) when Peat stepped out to get his ankle re-taped. Easton may or may not be the answer at left guard in 2020, but there’s no question that Peat isn’t.

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Where Saints, Vikings ranked in key stats in 2019

The New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings compare favorably in various key stats from the 2019 season, including point differential.

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Wild-card weekend is almost upon us, and the New Orleans Saints will host the Minnesota Vikings in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Sunday in the playoffs’ opening round. Currently, the Saints are a 7.5-point home favorite over the Kirk Cousins-led Vikings.

Money lines won’t tell the entire story in this matchup. A deeper dive into rankings of key stats throughout the season is necessary to unpack it. We will take a look at differentials for points and turnovers, rushing yards per game, and third-down conversion percentages between the two teams.

Point differential

Saints +117; Viking +104

Point differential is often a better indicator of team performance than overall record. Teams stuck with a lower point differential, but having still maintained a solid overall record, can be considered “lucky” by winning incredibly close games that could have gone either way at the end (looking at you, Seattle Seahawks).

New Orleans unsurprisingly holds the fifth-best point differential in the NFL, and the second-best in the NFC. However, Minnesota, whose offense is regularly criticized, holds the seventh best point differential in the NFL and fourth best in the NFC.

The Saints defense will have to play one of their best games in order to stop a sneakily good Vikings offense, that will be headlined by running back Dalvin Cook who will be returning from injury.

Turnover differential

Saints +15; Vikings +11

Turnover differential calculates how well a team takes care of the ball on offense, while also taking into account how many turnovers that same team creates on defense. It is an important stat that helps determine how many opportunities each team can create (or destroy) for itself.

New Orleans’ offense set the NFL record for fewest turnovers in a season with only eight in the 2019 regular season. Meanwhile, its defense helped create 23 turnovers, which ranked 14th in the league. Minnesota was not far behind with the fifth best turnover differential in the league.

Once again, Minnesota has quietly proven it can take care of the ball on offense, while still forcing errors on opposing defenses. The Saints will have to rely on a strong running game, and quarterback Drew Brees’ accuracy in order to prolong drives and reduce mistakes that the Vikings will try to capitalize on.

Rushing yards per game

Saints 108.6 yards; Vikings 133.3 yards

We finally arrive at a stat that the Vikings clearly outrank the Saints. Cook has led the Vikings in rushing yards with 1,135 yards in only 14 games this season. Cook has led the way for the Vikings to achieve the sixth best rushing game in the NFL.

Meanwhile, New Orleans ranks 16th in the league in rushing, but their star running back Alvin Kamara has missed significant time with injury this season. Kamara has begun to look more like himself the last two weeks of the regular season, and could be a large factor in the wild-card game.

Finally, the Saints defense has not given up a 100-yard rusher in 42 straight games. If New Orleans can hold Cook to less than 100-yards, then it will limit play-action opportunities and force Cousins to make quicker decisions, which should bode well for the Saints. The Vikings defense is competent at stopping the run (108.0 rushing yards allowed per game), but they don’t have the consistency of the Saints defense (91.3 rushing yards allowed per game).

Third-down conversion rate

Saints 42.2%; Vikings 42.8%

Third down conversion rates are important when looking at how well teams are able to keep the drive alive. However, it is not the end-all, be-all since first- and second-down conversions are just as important in helping to sustain successful drives. That being said, good teams keep themselves alive on third down by dialing up the right play and converting.

For as efficient as the Saints offense has been all season, the Vikings have been even more so, on third downs at least. The two teams’ third-down conversion rate is almost identical, and this stat may be what both of their defensive game plans will focus on. Whichever sides’ defense can get off the field quickly and more often will hold the advantage.

It’s important to contrast these conversion rates on offense against what the other team is allowing on defense. While the Saints are slightly worse on third down when they have the ball (at 42.2%), they’ve got the Vikings beat on defense (34.8%). Minnesota’s third-down defense, usually a point of pride for coach Mike Zimmer, is substantially worse at getting off the field on third down (39.7%). If the Saints defense can create many third-down opportunities, they should win that matchup against Cousins and the Vikings offense, while Zimmer’s defense should struggle against Brees and the Saints.

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Sean Payton discusses why Josh Hill is so essential to well-oiled Saints offense

Saints coach Sean Payton values nominal backup tight end Josh Hill highly, due as much to his ability to make any block as his versatility.

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Veteran tight end Jared Cook arrived to the New Orleans Saints with much fanfare, but he’s taken a backseat to Josh Hill for much of his first season. And that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Cook’s production has not suffered for it — his 9 touchdown grabs tie All-Pro wide receiver Michael Thomas for the team lead. Hill has only gained 226 receiving yards this season, which trails even converted quarterback Taysom Hill (234 receiving yards).

But as Saints coach Sean Payton tells it, Hill’s ability to execute nearly any block in the playbook and experience in a variety of personnel packages explains the discrepancy between Hill’s 649 snaps played (6th-most on the team) on offense against Cook’s 502 (11th-most).

“He’s a guy we use in the run game and pass protection. He does a lot of things well,” Payton said. “He plays on special teams, he plays a lot of snaps each week and he’s done so for quite a while.” In addition to Hill’s extended time when the Saints have the ball, he’s chipped in 182 snaps on special teams (8th-most for the Saints, just ahead of kicker Wil Lutz at 180).

Payton continued, “He’s someone that has real good athleticism and it’s difficult because a lot of different personnel groups might run through him. He might be in the base, he might be in 11 (personnel). Certainly, Jared (Cook) is playing a lot of snaps. The two of them together will play a lot of snaps. He’s one of those guys that does a lot of things well.”

This isn’t the first time Payton has talked up what Hill brings to the team; earlier in the season, he likened Hill’s loss during a game to losing the front door of your home, in that you can get by, but it’s going to be significantly more difficult. Here’s hoping Hill and Cook can each remain healthy and continue to help the team as they push towards Super Bowl LIV.

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Sean Payton pleased with Taysom Hill’s progress, even if ‘he runs like Barney Rubble’

New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton credited Taysom Hill for integrating the Saints passing attack, even if he doesn’t look pretty doing it

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Don’t look now, but New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill has turned into a real weapon in Sean Payton’s passing game. Hill finished the 2019 season tied with wide receiver Tre’Quan Smith in receiving yards (234) and one more touchdown catch (6, against Smith’s 5). He and Smith were tied for the sixth-most receiving yards on the team, while Hill’s receiving touchdowns placed third-best (wide receiver Michael Thomas and tight end Jared Cook tied for first, with 9 scoring grabs).

As Payton explains it, Hill’s growth into a legitimate receiving threat wasn’t really part of the plan. It was just a natural evolution from his success on special teams and bit-part on offense.

Payton said, “Yeah, I think it’s just continued to expand. I think that we’ve seen him in special teams. We’ve seen him block on offense. We’ve seen him run down the field vertically and each week it’s just expanded relative to his role. I think he’s handled it well. He has a lot of hats.”

When asked how the other receivers react to Hill’s continued development, all Payton could do was chuckle.

“We give them a hard time because sometimes he runs like Barney Rubble, but he runs fast,” Payton joked, referencing the caveman from old “The Flintstones” cartoons. Hill may be athletic, but he’s rarely aesthetic. His rumbling, tumbling style of running doesn’t look as pretty as the smooth track-and-field speed Smith or Ted Ginn Jr. may enjoy, but there’s no questioning his effectiveness. Payton continued, “I think he has real good sense and awareness of coverage. He’s smart, he understands how to set up routes and I think he had a big play yesterday but, but I think he has real good football intelligence.”

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Vikings RB Dalvin Cook is ‘ready to go’ vs. Saints in wild-card round

Minnesota Vikings RB’s Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison returned to practice before their wild-card round game with the New Orleans Saints

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The New Orleans Saints will be facing a better version of the Minnesota Vikings than has taken the field in recent weeks, because star running back Davlin Cook is returning to the lineup. Cook missed the final two regular season games with a chest injury, but he’ll be rested and ready for the Saints during Sunday’s wild-card round game.

“It’s a long season. You go through a lot, your body takes a lot,” Cook told Lindsey Young of Vikings.com. “I got some rest, and I’m ready to go.”

Cook gained a team-leading 1,135 rushing yards and scored 13 touchdown runs in 14 games, a rate of 81.1 yards per game on the ground. He also ranked second-most in both receptions (53, on 63 targets) and receiving yards (519) for Minnesota, chipping in 37.1 yards per game through the air. He’s a dynamic weapon who should seriously threaten the Saints defense’s streak of 42 games without allowing a 100-yard rusher.

Additionally, Minnesota could be welcoming the return of backup running back Alexander Mattison, a rookie the Saints scouted during his career at Boise State. Mattison missed the last three games with an ankle issue, but he and Cook were each spotted at Wednesday’s Vikings practice in helmets, going through drills in their usual first- and second-string rotation. The Vikings offensive line remains vulnerable, but both of these runners are capable of creating something out of nothing, and that should keep the Saints defense wary.

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