The New York Mets (72-73) host the St. Louis Cardinals (74-69) for the second game of their three-game series Tuesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis won the series opener Monday 7-0 thanks to yet another pitching gem by Adam Wainwright who had 6 IP, 4 H, 3 BB and 4 K and worked in and out of trouble all evening.
Season series: Cardinals lead 3-2.
RHP Jake Woodford is on the rubber for the Cardinals. Woodford is 2-3 with a 4.28 ERA (48 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in four starts and 18 relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 3 K in St. Louis’s 2-1 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers Thursday.
RHP Marcus Stroman is New York’s projected starter. Stroman is 9-12 with a 2.87 ERA (163 IP, 52 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 30 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in New York’s 3-2 loss at the Miami Marlins Thursday with a stat line of 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 7 K.
- Stroman lost to St. Louis, 4-1, May 5 with 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster (40 PA): 4.72 FIP with a .237 batting average, .288 wOBA, .516 expected slugging percentage, 22.5 K% and 89.9 mph exit velocity.
Cardinals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:08 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mets -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-145) | Mets -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Prediction
Cardinals 4, Mets 2
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the CARDINALS (+145) for a tiny wager – if at all – because their run line has a lot more value but wouldn’t hate sprinkling on the underdog’s money line in this spot.
Woodford has better basic numbers as a reliever than as a starter but you’ll notice that is a little misleading when you dig deeper into those stats. Woodford’s FIP, xFIP, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning rate are all better when he starts.
The reasons for Woodford’s bloated basic numbers as a starter are his .350 BABIP (.247 BABIP out of the bullpen) and a 63.5 left-on-base percentage (84.6% LOB out of the bullpen) both of which are luck-based metrics.
St. Louis is playing better baseball as fall approaches while New York has been hot or cold for the past month or so. The Cardinals have a higher winning percentage than the Mets over the past 10, 20 and 30 games.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET CARDINALS +1.5 (-145) heavier than – or instead of – their run line because despite the Mets being 35-18 overall as home favorites, they are just 17-36 ATS in those games while St. Louis is 40-31 ATS on the road.
St. Louis’s bullpen has really picked up in the second half of the year. The Cardinals’ relievers are fourth in WAR and sixth in both xFIP and runs scored per nine innings. New York’s bullpen ranks worse in each category.
Obviously, a Cardinals outright victory is the most ideal but maybe St. Louis can cash with a backdoor cover if its bullpen outpitches New York’s bullpen.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” on the Under 7.5 (+100) as I’m anticipating a decent to quality start out of Woodford, Stroman’s pitching peripherals against active St. Louis batters are impressive and the Mets are 17-30-4 O/U as a home favorite.
That said, I don’t think there’s much value in betting this total and would prefer to stick to the St. Louis run line as my favorite play in this contest.
Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams
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