St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Milwaukee Brewers (4-4) host the St. Louis Cardinals (4-2) Saturday at American Family Field for the third game of their four-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: 1-1

St. Louis evened the series Friday by crushing Milwaukee 10-1 and the Cardinals’ lineup beat up Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta early. Peralta surrendered 6 ER in just 3 IP on 7 H and 2 BB with 4 K. Cardinals 3B Nolan Arenado lead the way with a 2-for-3 game with 1 HR, 2 BB and 3 RBIs.

Cardinals at Brewers: Projected starters

LHP Steven Matz vs. RHP Adrian Houser

Matz (0-1, 21.00 ERA) took a loss in his season debut Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates 9-4. He allowed 7 ER on 9 H and 1 BB with 5 K in 3 IP.

vs. Brewers on the current roster: 3.59 FIP with a .266 batting average (BA), .315 wOBA, .381 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 18.9 K% and 86.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 74 plate appearances (PA).

Houser (0-1, 4.91 ERA) lost at the Baltimore Orioles Monday 2-0 with 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 3 K.

2021 vs. Cardinals: 3-0 with a 0.36 ERA (25 IP, 1 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 5.0 K/9 over four starts.
vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 3.67 FIP with a .238 BA, .288 wOBA, .391 xSLG, 17.6 K% and 87.8 mph EV in 136 PA.

Cardinals at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:14 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Cardinals +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Brewers -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+160) | Brewers +1.5 (-200)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Cardinals at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Brewers 2

Money line

BET the CARDINALS (+100) for 1 unit because there’s reverse line movement headed towards St. Louis, the Brewers struggle versus lefty pitching and April is Houser’s worst month.

Nearly 70% of the money is on the Brewers according to pregame.com, but they’ve gone from a -125 ML favorite on the opener down to the current number. It’s a red flag whenever the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper and my instinct is to get on the same side as the House.

The market’s preference of Milwaukee here makes sense because Houser pitched lights out versus St. Louis in 2021 and the Brew Crew are the reigning NL Central champions.

However, Milwaukee’s lineup can’t hit left-handed pitching. Since the beginning of last season, the Brewers are 26th in wRC+ and 24th in wOBA against lefty pitching, according to Fangraphs.

BET the CARDINALS (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a “lean” towards the Cardinals -1.5 (+160) since it’s a chunk payout and six of the last seven Cardinals-Brewers meetings have been decided by more than 1 run.

But, Houser did pitch well versus St. Louis last season and Milwaukee’s lineup is above-average on paper so the Brew Crew can sneak in the backdoor for an RL cover.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-125) since the oddsmakers are trying to steer bettors away from the Over but heavily juicing the Under.

Nearly 90% of the money is on the Under while a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Over. Typically, the cash column of betting splits represents professional money so the UNDER 8.5 (-125) is the sharper bet. However, my favorite wager in this game is St. Louis’s ML.

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The St. Louis Cardinals (3-2) meet the Milwaukee Brewers (4-3) Friday in the second of their 4-game set at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee won Thursday’s first game of the series 5-1, thanks to Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff‘s 5 IP with 0 ER and C Omar Narvaez’s 2-for-4 night with a home run, double and 2 RBI.

St. Louis beat Milwaukee in last year’s regular-season series 11-8 and the Cardinals had a plus-18 run differential over the Brew Crew in those games. Also, Milwaukee was 3-7 at home versus St. Louis in 2021.

Cardinals at Brewers: Projected starters

St. Louis RHP Miles Mikolas vs. Milwaukee RHP Freddy Peralta

Mikolas (0-0, 4.91 ERA) had a no-decision Saturday in St. Louis’s 6-2 win at home over the Pittsburgh Pirates. He went 3 2/3 IP, allowing 2 ER on 6 H and 2 BB with 1 K.

2021 vs. Brewers: 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 1 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.
vs. Brewers on the current roster: 2.92 FIP with a .235 batting average (BA), .274 wOBA, .425 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.3 K% and 86.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 89 plate appearances (PA).

Peralta (0-0, 6.75 ERA) had a no-decision in Milwaukee’s 5-4 comeback victory Sunday over the Cubs in Chicago. In 4 IP, he gave up 3 ER on 3 H and 4 BB with 6 K.

2021 vs. Cardinals: 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA (17 IP, 10 ER), 16 H, 4 BB and 23 K in 4 starts.
vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 5.05 FIP with a .274 BA, .368 wOBA, .430 xSLG, 26.6 K% and 87.2 mph EV in 128 PA.

Cardinals at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:01 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Cardinals +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Brewers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-160) | Brewers -1.5 (+130)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Cardinals at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Brewers 3

Money line

BET the CARDINALS (+130) because they are better in two of the most important phases of the game (hitting and bullpen pitching) and St. Louis owns Peralta.

Most casual fans view the Brewers (-160) as a pitching powerhouse, which is true of their starting rotation. But Milwaukee’s bullpen struggled significantly down the stretch in 2021.

Furthermore, the Brew Crew’s lineup was one of the most disappointing in the NL last season and is off to another slow start this year. While the Cardinals hitters are producing out the gate and are tied for second in wRC+.

I agree with Milwaukee being slightly favored but the Brewers (-160) have a 61.5% implied win probability and they do not win this game 60% of the time.

TAKE the CARDINALS (+130).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Cardinals +1.5 (-160) because I’d love some insurance for our St. Louis ML wager and the Brewers -1.5 (+130) are just 31-44 RL since the beginning of last season.

But only 3 of the 19 Cardinals-Brewers meetings last season were decided by 1 run and St. Louis’s RL is just a little out of my price range.