Tag: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers odds predictions pick betting line spread

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The streaking St. Louis Cardinals (82-69) attempt to complete a four-game road sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers (91-61) Thursday afternoon. First pitch is at 2:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright (16-7, 2.89 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 196 1/3 IP.

  • His 16 wins are already more than he has had in a season since winning 20 games in 2014.
  • He has won five straight decisions and seven of his last eight. The Cardinals won his last six starts and 11 of his last 12.

Brewers RHP Adrian Houser (9-6, 3.43 ERA) makes his 25th start and 27th appearance. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 131 1/3 IP.

  • He has faced the Cardinals twice this season and is 2-0 without an earned run allowed through 14 innings. He shut the Cardinals out Sept. 4 at home in a complete-game three-hitter.
  • The Brewers won Houser’s last outing, but he allowed 5 runs (4 earned) on 7 hits and 3 walks across 4 innings.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Brewers -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+160) | Brewers +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Cardinals 4, Brewers 2

Money line (ML)

No one is hotter in the majors right now than the Cardinals, who have won 11 straight games and 13 of their last 14. They won the first three games of this series and have their ace on the mound Thursday.

The Brewers have lost four straight games but had won seven of nine before the slump. They have already clinched a playoff berth and even with the three losses to the second-place Cardinals in this series, still lead the NL Central by 8.5 games.

Entering this series, the Brewers led the season series 7-5 but now the Cardinals are up 8-7.

How they have played recently and with Wainwright on the mound makes this fairly easy. Take the CARDINALS (-103).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Seven of the Cardinals’ 11 consecutive wins were by at least 2 runs. Only three of Wainwright’s last 12 starts were 1-run games.

Only two of the Brewers’ last 15 losses were by 1 run.

In this game, you get value on both the money line and against the spread. You get near-even money for the Cardinals to win and, based on the trends with Wainwright on the mound, you have to like them winning by at least 2 runs.

Take the CARDINALS -1.5 (+160).

Over/Under (O/U)

One of the three games in this series had 9 or more runs. Seven of the Cardinals’ last 13 games had a total of 9 or more and nine of the last 15 games for Milwaukee had 9 or more runs.

However, Wainwright vs. Houser has the feel of a late-season pitching duel in a playoff race.

Take UNDER 8.5 (-125).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (80-69) and Milwaukee Brewers (91-59) play the second game of a four-game series Tuesday. First pitch from American Family Field is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cardinals RHP Jake Woodford (2-3, 4.30 ERA) makes his sixth start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 52 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed 3 earned runs over 13 1/3 innings with 4 walks and 8 strikeouts through two starts and one relief appearance since being recalled from Triple-A Memphis in September.
  • Held Milwaukee scoreless over 7 innings across two relief appearances, the most recent of which was 5 1/3 innings Sept. 4.

Brewers RHP Brandon Woodruff (9-9, 2.55 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 169 1/3 IP.

  • Has a 4.34 ERA through 29 innings across his last five starts and allowed 6 earned runs over 5 innings in a start at St. Louis to start that span.
  • Does an excellent job of limiting hard contact and ranks in the 92nd percentile in HardHit rate and 94th percentile in average exit velocity.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Brewers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-117) | Brewers -1.5 (-103)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Brewers 5, Cardinals 4

Money line (ML)

The analysis on Tuesday’s game can pull in a number of directions.

Woodruff should provide Milwaukee a starting pitching advantage over Woodford, but he is having one of his worst stretches of the season over his last five outings. His worst start of the year was Aug. 19 against the Cardinals.

These relief corps are both top-10 units considering SIERA, xFIP and K-BB% in September.

St. Louis has been hitting the ball significantly better in September than Milwaukee. The Cardinals are top-10 in wRC+, OPS and wOBA over the last three weeks, while the Brewers are 18th or worse in those categories over that span.

Ultimately, Milwaukee is simply too expensive in this spot. St. Louis has won nine straight games and if anything warrants a play as a value-based bet on the Cardinals (+190) but this is a PASS for me.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

St. Louis has just been running too hot lately to believe with much confidence that they’re going to get blown out Tuesday. The Cardinals have won three of their last five meetings with the Brewers outright, all as underdogs, and covered the spread in one of their two losses.

The relief corps for the Cardinals has been excellent in September and should be able to help keep things within reach should Woodford not extend beyond the fifth inning.

St. Louis has been more productive as a road underdog against the spread than Milwaukee has as a home favorite, although I don’t put too much stock into those numbers.

A small play on the CARDINALS +1.5 (-117) is my “lean” here.

Over/Under (O/U)

This total feels a run too low for me. Woodruff hasn’t been as sharp over his last few starts and Woodford is unlikely to escape unscathed as he did in relief against the Brewers at the start of the month.

American Family Field is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, trailing only Coors Field in Denver in run production.

I like the OVER 7.5 (-115).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (69-64) face the Milwaukee Brewers (82-54) for the second game of their three-game series Saturday. First pitch from American Family Field is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cardinals LHP Kwang Hyun Kim (6-6, 3.23 ERA) makes his 21st start and 22nd appearance. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 97 2/3 IP.

  • Has a 3.55 ERA over six second-half appearances; has not pitched beyond the fourth inning in any of his last four outings.
  • Has benefitted from a .256 BABIP and has a 4.26 xERA and 4.58 xFIP.

Brewers RHP Adrian Houser (7-6, 3.69 ERA) makes his 22nd start in his 24th game. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 112 1/3 IP.

  • Owns a 2.96 ERA over 54 2/3 IP across 10 starts and two relief appearances at home.
  • His 60.2% GB% ranks second amongst all pitchers with at least 110 IP.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-190) | Brewers -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Milwaukee 5, St. Louis 3

Money line (ML)

St. Louis absolutely trashed Milwaukee in a 15-4 win in the series opener Friday, but I am not anticipating a repeat performance Saturday.

Kim’s recent appearances lend some support to the idea that he may get an early hook. He was pulled in his last outing after just 4 innings despite that he gave up just 1 earned run on 3 hits and tossed only 64 pitches. He has dealt with a balky back all season, too. Two starts back he also lasted just 4 innings and gave up only 2 earned runs.

A quick trip to the bullpen will expose a weakness for the Cardinals. St. Louis’ relievers rank in the bottom 10 in ERA, SIERA and K-BB% over the last two weeks.

Houser likely won’t go deep into the game for the Brewers either, but Milwaukee’s bullpen (despite Friday’s atrocious showing) are among the league’s best over the last two weeks and throughout the second half of the season.

BET MILWAUKEE (-130).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

I rarely like to rely on trends when deciding which side of things to come down on, but these two teams have split 10 meetings in the season series, and every game has been won by 2 or more runs.

The Brewers have bullied the NL Central on the run line en route to a 40-24 ATS record, and I like them to get it done today in a matchup that they have a small edge in starting pitching and a big edge on the back end.

Consider a partial-unit play with nice value on the BREWERS -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under (O/U)

This starting pitching matchup swings both squads around to the worst side of their platoon splits. The Brewers are a bottom-10 team on the season against lefties when considering wRC+, wOBA and OPS. The exact same can be said for the Cardinals against right-handed pitching.

Both these starters also shut down the opposition in their one start against them earlier in the season. Kim allowed 1 earned run over 5 1/3 innings when he visited Milwaukee in May, while Houser held the Cards scoreless through 5 innings during an April matchup in St. Louis.

However, these two starters have played mostly to the Over on the year, and Am-Fam Field is one of the most hitter-friendly in all of baseball.

Heading into this one with a cautious “lean” to the UNDER 8.5 (-112).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (19-16) host the NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals (21-14) Tuesday to begin a three-game set at 7:40 p.m. ET in American Family Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis swept the Colorado Rockies this past weekend following a four-game split with the New York Mets. The Cardinals haven’t lost a series since dropping two of three vs. the Washington Nationals April 19-21.

Milwaukee beat the Miami Marlins in back-to-back games to win a three-game set this past weekend. The wins snapped a six-game losing skid, which included a four-game sweep at the Philadelphia Phillies

Season series: Brewers lead 2-1.

LHP Kwang Hyun Kim is on the mound for the Cardinals. Kim is 1-0 with a 3.06 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 over 4 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP of a 7-inning game with 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 2 K vs. the Mets Wednesday.
  • Career vs. the Brewers: 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA (12 IP, 1 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 across 2 starts.
    • Vs. Brewers on the current roster: 29 at-bats with a .172/.250/.241 slash line, 7/3 K/BB rate, 0 HR and 1 RBI.

RHP Freddy Peralta gets the start for the Brewers. Peralta is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA (32 IP, 12 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 14.9 K/9 over 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-4, in 4 IP with 5 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 8 K Wednesday at the Phillies.
  • Career vs. the Cardinals: 2-1 with a 6.00 ERA (21 IP, 14 ER), 1.48 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 over 3 starts and 4 relief appearances.
    • Vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 62 at-bats with a .274/.357/.581 slash line, 17/6 K/BB rate, 5 HR and 13 RBIs.

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Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:33 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-200) | Brewers -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Brewers 3, Cardinals 2

Money line (ML)

There are a couple of reasons why I’m BETTING BREWERS (-125) for 1 unit. First, Milwaukee’s lineup is far more productive vs. left-handed pitching compared to righties while St. Louis struggles vs. right-handed pitching.

The Brewers are 27th in both wRC+ and OPS and 25th in wOBA against all pitching. However, vs. lefties, Milwaukee is fifth in wRC+, wOBA and OPS.

Conversely, the Cardinals hitters against right-handed pitching rank in the bottom-10 lineups of wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate.

Second, Peralta is much more effective at home and has filthy stuff. For his career, Peralta has a 3.12 home-ERA (5.87 ERA on the road), 1.06 home-WHIP (1.46 WHIP on the road) and is 12-3 at home (7-6 in road games).

Statcast grades Peralta in the 97th percentile of K%, 92nd percentile of whiff%, 95th percentile of expected wOBA and 94th percentile in expected slugging percentage.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. Since the start of the 2020 season, Milwaukee has the worst run line record in division games (20-35 RL) and an 11-22 RL record as a home favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7 (+100) for a half unit because, while I have more faith in Milwaukee’s lineup in this spot than St. Louis’ and Peralta has elite advanced pitching grades, Kim also has fantastic numbers vs. the Brewers.

I’d assume that whenever Kim turns this game over to the bullpen, St. Louis will be using right-handed relievers, which Milwaukee could have a tough time hitting.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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