Tag: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (91-60) host the St. Louis Cardinals (81-69) Wednesday for the third game of their four-game series at American Family Field with the first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis has won 10 straight games and 12 of its last 13, including the first two games of this series by a combined score of 7-3.

The Cardinals have taken a 4-game lead for the second NL Wild Card berth while the Brewers have already clinched a playoff berth and their magic number to win the NL Central is at 3.

Season series: Tied 7-7.

RHP Miles Mikolas is St. Louis’s projected starter. He is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA (32 IP, 16 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 through seven starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 8-2, with 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 3 K Friday against the San Diego Padres.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster (46 PA): 5.38 FIP with a .279 batting average (BA), .357 wOBA, .566 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.7 K% and 86.1 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Brett Anderson makes his 22nd start for the Brewers. He is 4-8 with a 4.18 ERA (88 1/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Milwaukee’s 5-2 victory at the San Francisco Giants Sept. 1 with 2 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
  • Anderson beat St. Louis, 9-3, April 11 with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 1 K.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (93 PA): 6.73 FIP with a .313 BA, .375 wOBA, .636 xSLG, 6.5 K% and 92.2 mph EV.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-180) | Brewers -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Prediction

Cardinals 4, Brewers 3

Money line (ML)

It’s square but I have to ride with the hot hand and “LEAN” to the CARDINALS (+110) because they hit lefties better than the Brewers hit righties and St. Louis’s bullpen has been one of the best units in baseball this month.

The Cardinals are 21-13 vs. left-handed pitching with the fifth-best wRC+, sixth-best wOBA and fourth-highest hard-contact rate against lefties.

On the other hand, Milwaukee is 14th in hard-contact rate, 17th in wRC+ and 15th in wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Furthermore, St. Louis’s bullpen has the third-best WAR in September and ranks higher than Milwaukee’s bullpen in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%. Cardinals relievers have an ERA more than 2 runs lower than the Brew Crew’s this month.

That said, the presumed sharp side of the market is backing Milwaukee while the public is betting St. Louis and I try not to follow the crowd when betting sports.

Also see: Understanding sharp money vs. public money

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS even though I’d love some insurance for St. Louis’s money line because the Cardinals +1.5 (-180) are a little too expensive. St. Louis has been a good run line bet on the road but not good enough to lay -180 in this spot.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET UNDER 8.5 (+110) for 1 unit because this is a “pros vs. joes” situation as more than 90% of the cash wagered is on the Under whereas the public is split on the total, according to Pregame.com at the time of writing. Oddsmakers have reacted by dragging the Cardinals-Brewers total down from the 9-run opener.

And while Anderson won’t be starting any playoff games, the Brewers are 5-13 O/U in his starts despite his mediocrity.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (79-69) travel to American Family Field to start a four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (91-58). First pitch will be at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee won two of three games in a weekend series against the Chicago Cubs and clinched a playoff berth for a fourth straight season Saturday. The Brewers’ magic number to win the NL Central is three.

St. Louis has won eight straight games and 10 of their last 11, including a  vital three-game sweep over the San Diego Padres. The Cardinals now hold a 3-game lead on the Cincinnati Reds for the second NL Wild Card berth.

Season series: Brewers 7-5.

RHP Jake Woodford is St. Louis’s projected starter. He is 2-3 with a 4.30 ERA (52 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 over five starts and 18 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 0 K in St. Louis’s 7-6 victory at the New York Mets Tuesday.
  • Woodford is 0-0 with a 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 7 K across 7 IP covering two relief appearances against Milwaukee this season.

RHP Freddy Peralta is on the hill for the Brewers. He is 9-4 with a 2.57 ERA (133 IP, 38 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 through 25 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Milwaukee’s 1-0 loss at the Detroit Tigers Tuesday with a stat line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
  • Peralta is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA (11 IP, 7 ER), 9 H, 3 BB and 14 K in three starts against St. Louis this season.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (109 PA): 5.31 FIP with a .253 BA, .362 wOBA, .483 xSLG, 25.7 K% and 87.7 mph exit velocity.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Brewers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-117) | Brewers -1.5 (-103)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Cardinals 1

Money line (ML)

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE because the Cardinals are white-hot right now and Peralta has a history of tailing off in the second half of the season.

He has a career 4.70 second-half ERA (3.34 first-half ERA), 1.28 WHIP (1.07 first-half WHIP) and 2.6 K/BB (3.3 first-half K/BB). Also, Peralta’s advanced pitching numbers vs. active St. Louis hitters are paltry by his standards.

However, the Brewers will have the momentum of looking to clinch the division at home. Plus, Peralta has always performed better at home with a 73.7% home winning rate and 2.92 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB in 22 home starts and 27 relief appearances.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (-103) because 11 of the 12 Cardinals-Brewers meetings this season were decided by at least 2 runs and there’s “sharp line movement” toward Milwaukee.

Close to 80% of the money wagered is on the Brewers and the oddsmakers have adjusted Milwaukee’s run line from a plus-money payout to the listed price, according to Pregame.com. At this point, the sportsbooks are trying to entice bettors into backing a hot Cardinals team.

Moreover, the Brewers have owned the NL Central this season with the third-best cover rate against divisional opponents at 43-26 ATS.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-125) because there should be a playoff-like atmosphere in this Cardinals-Brewers series and both teams have played more to the Under in divisional games.

Also, there’s a “pros vs. Joes” scenario in the betting market as more cash is wagered on the Under whereas the Over has received more bets. Typically, it’s wise in sports betting to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.

However, Woodford being a fringe rotation guy, Peralta’s aforementioned second-half struggles and these teams playing more to the Over in their location-based trends are the reasons for my “LEAN” on the UNDER 8.5 (-125).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (69-65) wrap a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (83-54) Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee tied the set with a 4-0 win Saturday after St. Louis clobbered the Brewers 15-4 in the series opener Friday.

Season series: Brewers lead 6-5.

LHP Jon Lester is on the rubber for the Cardinals. Lester is 5-6 with a 5.05 ERA (107 IP, 60 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 in 22 starts for St. Louis and the Washington Nationals.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 5 K Monday at the Cincinnati Reds.
  • Lester has two no-decisions this season against Milwaukee with a 5.40 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 3 BB and 4 K in two starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster (148 PA): 2.17 FIP with a .336 batting average (BA), .369 wOBA, .417 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.0 K% and 87.3 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Corbin Burnes makes his 24th start for the Brewers. Burnes is 9-4 with a 2.27 ERA (139 IP, 35 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K Monday at the San Francisco Giants.
  • Burnes is 1-1 against St. Louis this season with a 0.53 ERA (17 IP, 1 ER), 8 H, 3 BB and 21 K in three starts.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (110 PA): 3.24 FIP with a .235 BA, .307 wOBA, .456 xSLG, 37.3 K% and 87.6 mph EV.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:17 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Brewers -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-105) | Brewers -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Cardinals 1

Money line (ML)

Milwaukee has a significant edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting). However, that’s adequately accounted for in the Brewers (-280) line, which is a little too pricy for me.

Also, Lester’s pitching peripherals against active Milwaukee batters are actually very impressive and the Cardinals-Brewers season series has been back-and-forth all year.

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (-115) because they are 41-24 ATS against NL Central opponents and have won seven straight home games Burnes has started, four of them by at least 2 runs.

Furthermore, there’s “sharp” line movement towards Milwaukee. Roughly 95% of the cash wagered is on Milwaukee’s run line according to Pregame.com, which has caused oddsmakers to move the Brewers up from a -109 consensus run line favorite to the current price.

To keep this game close the Cardinals would either need a Lester gem or Burnes dud, neither of which is likely to occur. Milwaukee’s lineup could certainly gain a multi-run lead against a St. Louis bullpen that ranks second-to-last in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 7.5 (-108) because we’d be getting near an even-money payout to essentially fade a St. Louis lineup that hits righties poorly and a Milwaukee lineup that’s awful against left-handed pitching.

The reason why I’m avoiding this total though is that these teams have a combined 22-19 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (68-64) visit the Milwaukee Brewers (82-53) Friday to begin a three-game series at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Brewers lead 5-4.

RHP Adam Wainwright takes the mound for the Cardinals Wainwright is 13-7 with a 2.97 ERA (169 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 26 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 13-0, with 7 IP, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K at the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday.
  • Wainwright is 0-1 against Milwaukee this season with a 2.45 ERA (11 IP, 3 ER), 14 H, 4 BB and 10 K in two starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster (128 PA): 3.27 FIP with a .243 batting average (BA), .300 wOBA, .417 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 17.2 K% and 88.2 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Freddy Peralta is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Peralta is 9-3 with a 2.45 ERA (121 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 in 22 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB and 2 K in Milwaukee’s 6-4 victory at the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • Peralta has two no-decisions against St. Louis this season with a 3.00 ERA (9 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 1 BB and 10 K in two starts.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (97 PA): 4.99 FIP with a .244 BA, .347 wOBA, .497 xSLG, 24.7 K% and 87.7 mph EV.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Brewers -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-150) | Brewers -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Brewers 5, Cardinals 1

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS (-180) only because it’s on the fringe of my buy-price but Milwaukee has an edge in the three most important facets of the game (starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting).

While Wainwright turned 40 earlier this week and is having a throwback season, he has been aided by tremendous defensive play. Wainwright has a mediocre K%, EV, hard-hit rate and xSLG.

However, Peralta has some of the best stuff in the league. Peralta grades in the 89th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, EV, xSLG, K%, expected wOBA and whiff rate.  He was dominant in his first start against St. Louis season and exited his second start with an injury that placed him on the IL. Presumably, Peralta has recovered and should be dialed in for fall baseball.

In addition, Milwaukee’s bullpen ranks in the top 10 in several advanced pitching categories whereas St. Louis’s ranks near the bottom. For instance, the Cardinals relievers have the second-worst xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.

Since Milwaukee’s money line is so expensive, I’d entertain throwing the Brewers (-180) into a parlay with another similarly priced favorite to get a plus-money payout.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (+122) for a half unit because Milwaukee has the second-best cover rate against divisional foes at 40-23 ATS, St. Louis is 25-31 ATS vs. NL Central opponents and all nine Cardinals-Brewers meetings this year have been decided by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 7.5 (-122) because both the “pros” and “joes” are headed in that direction and oddsmakers have brought this total down from the flat-8 opener according to Pregame.com.

On the other hand, we are getting the worst of the number at this point and if Wainwright doesn’t pitch into the 7th inning, Milwaukee’s lineup could rake St. Louis’s weak bullpen.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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