Tag: St. Louis Cardinals odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (3-2) meet the Milwaukee Brewers (4-3) Friday in the second of their 4-game set at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee won Thursday’s first game of the series 5-1, thanks to Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff‘s 5 IP with 0 ER and C Omar Narvaez’s 2-for-4 night with a home run, double and 2 RBI.

St. Louis beat Milwaukee in last year’s regular-season series 11-8 and the Cardinals had a plus-18 run differential over the Brew Crew in those games. Also, Milwaukee was 3-7 at home versus St. Louis in 2021.

Cardinals at Brewers: Projected starters

St. Louis RHP Miles Mikolas vs. Milwaukee RHP Freddy Peralta 

Mikolas (0-0, 4.91 ERA) had a no-decision Saturday in St. Louis’s 6-2 win at home over the Pittsburgh Pirates. He went 3 2/3 IP, allowing 2 ER on 6 H and 2 BB with 1 K.

  • 2021 vs. Brewers: 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 1 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 2.92 FIP with a .235 batting average (BA), .274 wOBA, .425 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.3 K% and 86.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 89 plate appearances (PA).

Peralta (0-0, 6.75 ERA) had a no-decision in Milwaukee’s 5-4 comeback victory Sunday over the Cubs in Chicago. In 4 IP, he gave up 3 ER on 3 H and 4 BB with 6 K.

  • 2021 vs. Cardinals: 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA (17 IP, 10 ER), 16 H, 4 BB and 23 K in 4 starts.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 5.05 FIP with a .274 BA, .368 wOBA, .430 xSLG, 26.6 K% and 87.2 mph EV in 128 PA.

Cardinals at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:01 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Cardinals +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Brewers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-160) | Brewers -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Cardinals at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Brewers 3

Money line

BET the CARDINALS (+130) because they are better in two of the most important phases of the game (hitting and bullpen pitching) and St. Louis owns Peralta.

Most casual fans view the Brewers (-160) as a pitching powerhouse, which is true of their starting rotation. But Milwaukee’s bullpen struggled significantly down the stretch in 2021.

Furthermore, the Brew Crew’s lineup was one of the most disappointing in the NL last season and is off to another slow start this year. While the Cardinals hitters are producing out the gate and are tied for second in wRC+.

I agree with Milwaukee being slightly favored but the Brewers (-160) have a 61.5% implied win probability and they do not win this game 60% of the time.

TAKE the CARDINALS (+130).

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for $15 OFF a Draft Prep or full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 4/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!

Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Cardinals +1.5 (-160) because I’d love some insurance for our St. Louis ML wager and the Brewers -1.5 (+130) are just 31-44 RL since the beginning of last season.

But only 3 of the 19 Cardinals-Brewers meetings last season were decided by 1 run and St. Louis’s RL is just a little out of my price range.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-108) because of Peralta’s aforementioned struggles versus the Cardinals, the weather forecast is predicting 12.5 mph winds blowing out to left-center field and the total has been increased due to a sharp line move. 

However, St. Louis’s ML is by far my favorite bet in this game hence the LEAN OVER 8.5 (-108).

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (91-60) host the St. Louis Cardinals (81-69) Wednesday for the third game of their four-game series at American Family Field with the first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis has won 10 straight games and 12 of its last 13, including the first two games of this series by a combined score of 7-3.

The Cardinals have taken a 4-game lead for the second NL Wild Card berth while the Brewers have already clinched a playoff berth and their magic number to win the NL Central is at 3.

Season series: Tied 7-7.

RHP Miles Mikolas is St. Louis’s projected starter. He is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA (32 IP, 16 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 through seven starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 8-2, with 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 3 K Friday against the San Diego Padres.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster (46 PA): 5.38 FIP with a .279 batting average (BA), .357 wOBA, .566 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.7 K% and 86.1 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Brett Anderson makes his 22nd start for the Brewers. He is 4-8 with a 4.18 ERA (88 1/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Milwaukee’s 5-2 victory at the San Francisco Giants Sept. 1 with 2 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
  • Anderson beat St. Louis, 9-3, April 11 with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 1 K.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (93 PA): 6.73 FIP with a .313 BA, .375 wOBA, .636 xSLG, 6.5 K% and 92.2 mph EV.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-180) | Brewers -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Prediction

Cardinals 4, Brewers 3

Money line (ML)

It’s square but I have to ride with the hot hand and “LEAN” to the CARDINALS (+110) because they hit lefties better than the Brewers hit righties and St. Louis’s bullpen has been one of the best units in baseball this month.

The Cardinals are 21-13 vs. left-handed pitching with the fifth-best wRC+, sixth-best wOBA and fourth-highest hard-contact rate against lefties.

On the other hand, Milwaukee is 14th in hard-contact rate, 17th in wRC+ and 15th in wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Furthermore, St. Louis’s bullpen has the third-best WAR in September and ranks higher than Milwaukee’s bullpen in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%. Cardinals relievers have an ERA more than 2 runs lower than the Brew Crew’s this month.

That said, the presumed sharp side of the market is backing Milwaukee while the public is betting St. Louis and I try not to follow the crowd when betting sports.

Also see: Understanding sharp money vs. public money

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS even though I’d love some insurance for St. Louis’s money line because the Cardinals +1.5 (-180) are a little too expensive. St. Louis has been a good run line bet on the road but not good enough to lay -180 in this spot.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET UNDER 8.5 (+110) for 1 unit because this is a “pros vs. joes” situation as more than 90% of the cash wagered is on the Under whereas the public is split on the total, according to Pregame.com at the time of writing. Oddsmakers have reacted by dragging the Cardinals-Brewers total down from the 9-run opener.

And while Anderson won’t be starting any playoff games, the Brewers are 5-13 O/U in his starts despite his mediocrity.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (79-69) travel to American Family Field to start a four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (91-58). First pitch will be at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee won two of three games in a weekend series against the Chicago Cubs and clinched a playoff berth for a fourth straight season Saturday. The Brewers’ magic number to win the NL Central is three.

St. Louis has won eight straight games and 10 of their last 11, including a  vital three-game sweep over the San Diego Padres. The Cardinals now hold a 3-game lead on the Cincinnati Reds for the second NL Wild Card berth.

Season series: Brewers 7-5.

RHP Jake Woodford is St. Louis’s projected starter. He is 2-3 with a 4.30 ERA (52 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 over five starts and 18 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 0 K in St. Louis’s 7-6 victory at the New York Mets Tuesday.
  • Woodford is 0-0 with a 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 7 K across 7 IP covering two relief appearances against Milwaukee this season.

RHP Freddy Peralta is on the hill for the Brewers. He is 9-4 with a 2.57 ERA (133 IP, 38 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 through 25 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Milwaukee’s 1-0 loss at the Detroit Tigers Tuesday with a stat line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
  • Peralta is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA (11 IP, 7 ER), 9 H, 3 BB and 14 K in three starts against St. Louis this season.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (109 PA): 5.31 FIP with a .253 BA, .362 wOBA, .483 xSLG, 25.7 K% and 87.7 mph exit velocity.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Brewers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-117) | Brewers -1.5 (-103)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Prediction

Brewers 4, Cardinals 1

Money line (ML)

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE because the Cardinals are white-hot right now and Peralta has a history of tailing off in the second half of the season.

He has a career 4.70 second-half ERA (3.34 first-half ERA), 1.28 WHIP (1.07 first-half WHIP) and 2.6 K/BB (3.3 first-half K/BB). Also, Peralta’s advanced pitching numbers vs. active St. Louis hitters are paltry by his standards.

However, the Brewers will have the momentum of looking to clinch the division at home. Plus, Peralta has always performed better at home with a 73.7% home winning rate and 2.92 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB in 22 home starts and 27 relief appearances.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (-103) because 11 of the 12 Cardinals-Brewers meetings this season were decided by at least 2 runs and there’s “sharp line movement” toward Milwaukee.

Close to 80% of the money wagered is on the Brewers and the oddsmakers have adjusted Milwaukee’s run line from a plus-money payout to the listed price, according to Pregame.com. At this point, the sportsbooks are trying to entice bettors into backing a hot Cardinals team.

Moreover, the Brewers have owned the NL Central this season with the third-best cover rate against divisional opponents at 43-26 ATS.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-125) because there should be a playoff-like atmosphere in this Cardinals-Brewers series and both teams have played more to the Under in divisional games.

Also, there’s a “pros vs. Joes” scenario in the betting market as more cash is wagered on the Under whereas the Over has received more bets. Typically, it’s wise in sports betting to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.

However, Woodford being a fringe rotation guy, Peralta’s aforementioned second-half struggles and these teams playing more to the Over in their location-based trends are the reasons for my “LEAN” on the UNDER 8.5 (-125).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (72-73) host the St. Louis Cardinals (74-69) for the second game of their three-game series Tuesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis won the series opener Monday 7-0 thanks to yet another pitching gem by Adam Wainwright who had 6 IP, 4 H, 3 BB and 4 K and worked in and out of trouble all evening.

Season series: Cardinals lead 3-2.

RHP Jake Woodford is on the rubber for the Cardinals. Woodford is 2-3 with a 4.28 ERA (48 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in four starts and 18 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 3 K in St. Louis’s 2-1 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers Thursday.

RHP Marcus Stroman is New York’s projected starter. Stroman is 9-12 with a 2.87 ERA (163 IP, 52 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 30 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in New York’s 3-2 loss at the Miami Marlins Thursday with a stat line of 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 7 K.
  • Stroman lost to St. Louis, 4-1, May 5 with 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (40 PA): 4.72 FIP with a .237 batting average, .288 wOBA, .516 expected slugging percentage, 22.5 K% and 89.9 mph exit velocity.

Cardinals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:08 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mets -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-145) | Mets -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Prediction

Cardinals 4, Mets 2

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the CARDINALS (+145) for a tiny wager – if at all – because their run line has a lot more value but wouldn’t hate sprinkling on the underdog’s money line in this spot.

Woodford has better basic numbers as a reliever than as a starter but you’ll notice that is a little misleading when you dig deeper into those stats. Woodford’s FIP, xFIP, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning rate are all better when he starts.

The reasons for Woodford’s bloated basic numbers as a starter are his .350 BABIP (.247 BABIP out of the bullpen) and a 63.5 left-on-base percentage (84.6% LOB out of the bullpen) both of which are luck-based metrics.

St. Louis is playing better baseball as fall approaches while New York has been hot or cold for the past month or so. The Cardinals have a higher winning percentage than the Mets over the past 10, 20 and 30 games.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET CARDINALS +1.5 (-145) heavier than – or instead of – their run line because despite the Mets being 35-18 overall as home favorites, they are just 17-36 ATS in those games while St. Louis is 40-31 ATS on the road.

St. Louis’s bullpen has really picked up in the second half of the year. The Cardinals’ relievers are fourth in WAR and sixth in both xFIP and runs scored per nine innings. New York’s bullpen ranks worse in each category.

Obviously, a Cardinals outright victory is the most ideal but maybe St. Louis can cash with a backdoor cover if its bullpen outpitches New York’s bullpen.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” on the Under 7.5 (+100) as I’m anticipating a decent to quality start out of Woodford, Stroman’s pitching peripherals against active St. Louis batters are impressive and the Mets are 17-30-4 O/U as a home favorite.

That said, I don’t think there’s much value in betting this total and would prefer to stick to the St. Louis run line as my favorite play in this contest.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (73-69) travel to Citi Field to start a three-game set with the New York Mets (72-72). First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 2-2.

RHP Adam Wainwright is on the rubber for the Cardinals. Wainwright is 15-7 with a 2.98 ERA (184 1/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 across 28 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-4, with 8 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 4 K Wednesday vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.20 FIP with a .186 batting average (BA), .228 wOBA, .345 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 20.5 K% and 84.5 mph exit velocity (EV) in 122 PA.

LHP Rich Hill is New York’s projected starter. Hill is 6-6 with a 3.82 ERA (139 IP, 59 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 27 starts and one relief appearance for the Mets and the Tampa Bay Rays.

  • Last outing: No-decision in New York’s 2-1 loss at the Miami Marlins Wednesday with a stat line of 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 8 K.
  • Wainwright beat New York, 6-5, May 3 with 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 5 K.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 5.95 FIP with a .279 BA, .352 wOBA, .445 xSLG, 17.1 K% and 89.1 mph EV in 70 PA.

Cardinals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Mets -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+145) | Mets +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -112 | U:-108)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Prediction

Mets 6, Cardinals 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the METS (-108) for a half unit because they are 12 games above-.500 when facing righty starters and 15 games above-.500 at home.

Also, New York’s emotional three-game series victory over the New York Yankees this weekend could give the Mets a jolt down the stretch.

In fact, the Mets have scored at least 7 runs in six of their past 10 games so they come into Monday’s game on a bit of a hot streak.

Furthermore, roughly 85% of the cash wagered is on the Cardinals (according to Pregame.com), and oddsmakers have reacted by moving St. Louis from a +110 underdog up to the current price.

I’m okay with fading a one-sided market in this spot because the Cardinals have one of baseball’s biggest fanbases and their ace on the mound, but Wainwright is a little less effective on the road.

However, it’s only a “LEAN” to the METS (-108) since Wainwright has been phenomenal in the second half of the season, and the Cardinals are 20-13 vs. lefty starters.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS even though I’d love some insurance on our New York money line wager because the Mets +1.5 (-180) is a little out of my price range, and the Cardinals are 15-6 overall as a home favorite and 12-9 ATS.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET OVER 7.5 (-112) for 1 unit because both lineups are facing their preferred pitcher handedness, Hill’s pitching peripherals are subpar vs. the Cardinals and St. Louis’ bullpen ranks in the bottom-5 of several advanced pitching categories. So the “backdoor is wide open” for the Over to cash.

For instance, the Cardinals hitters rank in the top-5 against left-handed pitching wRC+, wOBA and hard-hit rate. While New York’s lineup struggles against lefties but ranks around league average in advanced hitting stats vs. right-handed pitching.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (74-67) visit the St. Louis Cardinals (71-68) Friday to start a three-game series at Busch Stadium with first pitch scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Reds lead 9-7.

RHP Tyler Mahle is on the rubber for the Reds. Mahle is 11-5 with a 3.76 ERA (153 1/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 over 28 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-4, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 5 BB and 8 K Saturday vs. the Detroit Tigers.
  • Mahle is 2-0 this season against St. Louis with a 3.18 ERA (17 IP, 6 ER), 14 H, 7 BB and 22 K in three starts.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (171 PA): 4.53 FIP with a .234 batting average (BA), .308 wOBA, .412 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 24.6 K% and 87.4 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Jon Lester is St. Louis’s projected starter. Lester is 5-6 with a 4.89 ERA (112 1/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 in 23 starts for the Cardinals and the Washington Nationals.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 2 K in St. Louis’s 6-5 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday.
  • Lester beat Cincy, 3-1, Aug. 30 with a stat line of 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster (253 PA): 4.78 FIP with a .249 BA, .324 wOBA, .439 xSLG, 20.6 K% and 87.2 mph EV.

Reds at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:57 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cardinals +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+133) | Cardinals +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Reds 2

Money line (ML)

There was a heavy discrepancy between the “pros” and “joes” in the early morning action report that shaped the line most of us are looking at currently.

Two-thirds of the cash was on the Cardinals’ money line but nearly 60% of all bets placed were with the Reds, according to Pregame.com.

However, the oddsmakers sided with the presumed “sharp” money and have moved the line slightly in St. Louis’s direction, which started with the Reds laying -135 on the consensus money line.

I’d guess the sharp line movement is due to the fact that Cincy’s lineup ranks 28th in wRC+, 26th in wOBA and the sixth-highest K% against left-handed pitching.

St. Louis’s lineup has hit much better than Cincy’s recently. The Cardinals have a 111 wRC+ (ranked seventh in MLB), 3.6 WAR (ranked fourth) and .334 wOBA (ranked eighth) over the last two weeks. Whereas the Reds rank 21st or 22nd in each of those metrics in that timespan.

BET 1 unit on the CARDINALS (+102).

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Cardinals +1.5 (-165) because I like St. Louis’s money line and would love to get some insurance for that bet.

However, the Cardinals are 13-11 ATS as home underdogs and the Reds are 7-17 ATS as road favorites so I’d entertain throwing St. Louis’s run line in a parlay with a similarly priced side. But, as a standalone wager at this price point, PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-122) for a tiny wager only because I much prefer the Cardinals outright than the total in this contest.

That said, Cincy’s lineup struggles to produce against lefties, St. Louis’s lineup is below-average across several advanced hitting categories and Mahle is a lot more effective on the road than at home.

For example, Mahle is 7-2 in 15 road starts this season with a 1.90 ERA (6.09 home ERA), 0.98 WHIP (1.50 home WHIP) and 3.6 K/BB (3.2 K/BB at home). In fact, Mahle has given up 4 home runs in his two home starts against the Cardinals this year and no homer in his start in St. Louis.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (88-52) play the St. Louis Cardinals (70-68) Thursday in the finale of their four-game series at Busch Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 1:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. took the first two games of this series by a combined score of 12-3 but St. Louis responded with a 5-4 win Wednesday.

Season series: Dodgers lead 4-2.

RHP Tony Gonsolin is L.A.’s projected starter. He is 2-1 with a 2.78 ERA (35 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 6.6 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through nine starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 1 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 5 BB and 1 K in L.A.’s 6-5 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks July 30.

RHP Jake Woodford is on the rubber for the Cardinals. He is 2-3 with a 4.47 ERA (44 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 across three starts and 18 relief appearances.

  • Last start: Loss, 8-1, with 3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 3 K July 31 against the Minnesota Twins.
  • Woodford worked out of the bullpen in St. Louis’s 14-3 loss at the Dodgers June 2 with 2 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 1 K.

Dodgers at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Dodgers -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Cardinals +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (-108) | Cardinals +1.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U:+110)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Prediction

Dodgers 8, Cardinals 3

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Dodgers (-175) because I’d entertain throwing L.A. into a parlay with a similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout or even only RISKING 1 unit instead of betting 1 unit. What I mean by that is if your usual sports wager is $100 then bet that on the Dodgers (-200) to hopefully earn a $50 profit.

L.A. is absolutely the right side here given it has an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting and relief pitching and hitting), but I’ll go with the Dodgers’ run line instead.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

GIMME the DODGERS -1.5 (-108) for 1 unit because their lineup ranks sixth or better against right-handed pitching in advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate.

Furthermore, Woodford grades in the 35th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, K% and chase rate. And St. Louis’s bullpen has struggled immensely this year.

Cardinals relievers rank second-to-last in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% while L.A.’s bullpen is in the top-10 of most advanced pitching metrics.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-135) for a half unit because Woodford could very well get rocked by the almighty Dodgers and if he doesn’t then St. Louis’s bullpen may be in for a long night.

L.A.’s lineup chases pitches outside the zone at the fourth-best rate in baseball and has the highest hard-contact rate in the second half. Between Woodford’s poor pitching peripherals and St. Louis’s bullpen walk rate, it would be surprising if the Dodgers scored fewer than 6 runs.

If L.A. gets to St. Louis’s pitching staff, the Dodgers are likely to use their less effective relievers and the Cardinals could help Over bettors “sneak in the backdoor”.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (69-65) wrap a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (83-54) Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee tied the set with a 4-0 win Saturday after St. Louis clobbered the Brewers 15-4 in the series opener Friday.

Season series: Brewers lead 6-5.

LHP Jon Lester is on the rubber for the Cardinals. Lester is 5-6 with a 5.05 ERA (107 IP, 60 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 in 22 starts for St. Louis and the Washington Nationals.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 5 K Monday at the Cincinnati Reds.
  • Lester has two no-decisions this season against Milwaukee with a 5.40 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 3 BB and 4 K in two starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster (148 PA): 2.17 FIP with a .336 batting average (BA), .369 wOBA, .417 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.0 K% and 87.3 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Corbin Burnes makes his 24th start for the Brewers. Burnes is 9-4 with a 2.27 ERA (139 IP, 35 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K Monday at the San Francisco Giants.
  • Burnes is 1-1 against St. Louis this season with a 0.53 ERA (17 IP, 1 ER), 8 H, 3 BB and 21 K in three starts.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (110 PA): 3.24 FIP with a .235 BA, .307 wOBA, .456 xSLG, 37.3 K% and 87.6 mph EV.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:17 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Brewers -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-105) | Brewers -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Prediction

Brewers 4, Cardinals 1

Money line (ML)

Milwaukee has a significant edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting). However, that’s adequately accounted for in the Brewers (-280) line, which is a little too pricy for me.

Also, Lester’s pitching peripherals against active Milwaukee batters are actually very impressive and the Cardinals-Brewers season series has been back-and-forth all year.

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (-115) because they are 41-24 ATS against NL Central opponents and have won seven straight home games Burnes has started, four of them by at least 2 runs.

Furthermore, there’s “sharp” line movement towards Milwaukee. Roughly 95% of the cash wagered is on Milwaukee’s run line according to Pregame.com, which has caused oddsmakers to move the Brewers up from a -109 consensus run line favorite to the current price.

To keep this game close the Cardinals would either need a Lester gem or Burnes dud, neither of which is likely to occur. Milwaukee’s lineup could certainly gain a multi-run lead against a St. Louis bullpen that ranks second-to-last in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 7.5 (-108) because we’d be getting near an even-money payout to essentially fade a St. Louis lineup that hits righties poorly and a Milwaukee lineup that’s awful against left-handed pitching.

The reason why I’m avoiding this total though is that these teams have a combined 22-19 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (68-64) visit the Milwaukee Brewers (82-53) Friday to begin a three-game series at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Brewers lead 5-4.

RHP Adam Wainwright takes the mound for the Cardinals Wainwright is 13-7 with a 2.97 ERA (169 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 26 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 13-0, with 7 IP, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K at the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday.
  • Wainwright is 0-1 against Milwaukee this season with a 2.45 ERA (11 IP, 3 ER), 14 H, 4 BB and 10 K in two starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster (128 PA): 3.27 FIP with a .243 batting average (BA), .300 wOBA, .417 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 17.2 K% and 88.2 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Freddy Peralta is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Peralta is 9-3 with a 2.45 ERA (121 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 in 22 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB and 2 K in Milwaukee’s 6-4 victory at the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • Peralta has two no-decisions against St. Louis this season with a 3.00 ERA (9 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 1 BB and 10 K in two starts.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (97 PA): 4.99 FIP with a .244 BA, .347 wOBA, .497 xSLG, 24.7 K% and 87.7 mph EV.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Brewers -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-150) | Brewers -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Prediction

Brewers 5, Cardinals 1

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS (-180) only because it’s on the fringe of my buy-price but Milwaukee has an edge in the three most important facets of the game (starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting).

While Wainwright turned 40 earlier this week and is having a throwback season, he has been aided by tremendous defensive play. Wainwright has a mediocre K%, EV, hard-hit rate and xSLG.

However, Peralta has some of the best stuff in the league. Peralta grades in the 89th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, EV, xSLG, K%, expected wOBA and whiff rate.  He was dominant in his first start against St. Louis season and exited his second start with an injury that placed him on the IL. Presumably, Peralta has recovered and should be dialed in for fall baseball.

In addition, Milwaukee’s bullpen ranks in the top 10 in several advanced pitching categories whereas St. Louis’s ranks near the bottom. For instance, the Cardinals relievers have the second-worst xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.

Since Milwaukee’s money line is so expensive, I’d entertain throwing the Brewers (-180) into a parlay with another similarly priced favorite to get a plus-money payout.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (+122) for a half unit because Milwaukee has the second-best cover rate against divisional foes at 40-23 ATS, St. Louis is 25-31 ATS vs. NL Central opponents and all nine Cardinals-Brewers meetings this year have been decided by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 7.5 (-122) because both the “pros” and “joes” are headed in that direction and oddsmakers have brought this total down from the flat-8 opener according to Pregame.com.

On the other hand, we are getting the worst of the number at this point and if Wainwright doesn’t pitch into the 7th inning, Milwaukee’s lineup could rake St. Louis’s weak bullpen.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (47-81) host the St. Louis Cardinals (64-62) Friday for the second game of their four-game series at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Pittsburgh rallied back from a 4-run deficit with an 8-run 7th-inning outburst to win the series opener Thursday 11-7. Pirates batters four through six (1B Colin Moran, 3B Wilmer Difo and RF Gregory Polanco) combined to hit 10-for-15 with a home run, 2 doubles and 6 RBIs.

Season series: Cardinals lead 10-6.

LHP J.A. Happ is St. Louis’s projected starter. Happ is 7-6 with a 5.88 ERA (121 IP, 79 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 23 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 8 K in St. Louis’s 5-4 loss Saturday against Pittsburgh.
  • Happ is 2-0 against Pittsburgh this season with a 1.40 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 5 BB and 16 K in three starts.
  • vs. the Pirates on the current roster (62 PA): 4.32 FIP with a .190 batting average (BA), .272 wOBA, .391 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 27.4 K% and 89.8 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Dillon Peters makes his third start for the Pirates. Peters is 0-1 with a 1.86 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 4 BB and 6 K across two starts.

  • .Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Pittsburgh’s 5-4 win Saturday at St. Louis.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (22 PA): 5.75 FIP with a .200 BA, .290 wOBA, .580 xSLG, 13.6 K% and 88.3 mph EV.

Cardinals at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Pirates +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (+100) | Pirates +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Prediction

Cardinals 7, Pirates 3

Money line (ML)

Happ is a starter I typically like to fade but he’s been very good since joining the Cardinals at the trade deadline. Happ is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in four starts since arriving in St. Louis.

Pittsburgh’s lineup has the second-worst wRC+ and wOBA against left-handed pitching and fifth-worst hard-hit rate. St. Louis’s lineup ranks 13th in wRC+ but has the sixth-best hard-hit rate vs. lefties.

The Cardinals are 6-1 overall as road favorites of -130 or more with a plus-43.5% return on investment (ROI) and an average score of 6.1-3.0. On the flip side, the Pirates are 3-9 overall as home underdogs of +120 or greater with a minus-29.0% ROI and an average score of 6.0-4.2.

GIMME the CARDINALS (-160).

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because St. Louis’s bullpen is not dependable enough to lay it with the Cardinals -1.5 (+100). For instance, St. Louis’s bullpen has the worst SIERA and K-BB% in the majors and the second-worst xFIP.

Also, the Cardinals are just 22-28 ATS against divisional foes and the Pirates are 29-27 ATS as a home underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-125) for a tiny wager – if at all – because I much prefer betting St. Louis’s money line instead of the total. However, both ball clubs have played more to the Over in division games and Happ’s teams are 13-8-2 O/U in his starts.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]