The St. John’s Red Storm (13-8, 7-7 Big East) host the Xavier Musketeers (11-3, 4-3) for a Big East showdown at Carnesecca Arena Tuesday. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Xavier-St. John’s college basketball odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Xavier at St. John’s: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Xavier +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | St. John’s -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Xavier +1.5 (-110) | St. John’s -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 154.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Xavier at St. John’s: Three things to know
- Xavier lost its last game to UConn 80-72 Saturday following a two-week hiatus due to COVID-19 issues. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Musketeers, which included a 69-61 win over the Johnnies Jan. 6; Xavier has played only four games since the beginning of 2021.
- St. John’s had a six-game winning streak ended by losing to Butler 76-73 in overtime as a 1-point road underdog last Tuesday. The Johnnies are being led by F Julian Champagnie, who’s the Big East’s leading scorer, and freshman PG Posh Alexander who leads the conference in steals per game.
- This has been a one-sided rivalry since Xavier joined the Big East in 2013 with Xavier winning 12 straight games and 14 out of 16 meetings. The Musketeers have a 7-2-1 ATS record vs. the Johnnies in their previous 10 head-to-head games.
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Xavier at St. John’s: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
St. John’s 81, Xavier 76
Money line (ML)
My biggest takeaway upon seeing this line is how much BetMGM is goading bettors into backing Xavier in this spot. Just because the Johnnies were red-hot prior to losing to Butler doesn’t mean St. John’s should be favored, yet here we are.
The pro-St. John’s case is that it turned the corner defensively in recent weeks by winning the turnover battle 15.1-12.0 on average over the previous seven games and holding opponents to 29.6% 3-point shooting.
Also, the Johnnies had a higher effective field-goal percentage and lower turnover percentage in the first meeting between these teams but Xavier won because it had 19 more free-throw attempts.
That should regress more toward the mean in this game since Xavier ranks 259th in free-throw attempt rate. I’m going to follow the House’s read on this one and TAKE ST. JOHN’S (-125) to end its losing skid vs. Xavier.
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Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the money line is only slightly more expensive for St. John’s. There’s no reason to fuss with the points in this game.
Over/Under (O/U)
I lean OVER 154.5 (-110) for a tiny wager since the sharp side of the market is on the Over and the Over has cashed in seven of the last eight games in which the Johnnies were favored.
Xavier has the third-highest effective field-goal shooting in the Big East and St. John’s will have success turning its defense into offense.
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