Tag: SP+

Florida finishes surprisingly high in final 2023 SP+ rankings from ESPN

Florida finished the 2023 season with a 5-7 record, but the Gators still managed to crack the top 50 in the final update to the ESPN SP+ rankings.

Despite finishing the 2023 season with a 5-7 record, the Florida Gators ended up ranked No. 41 in the country, according to ESPN’s final SP+ rankings.

Bill Connelly, the inventor of the SP+ system, defines the metric as a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is intended to be predictive and forward-facing, which should be considered when interpreting the year-end rankings.

Florida’s offense finished the season ranked 38th in the country with a 31.1 rating, while the defense underperformed its way to 60th with a 26.0 rating. The much-maligned special teams unit in Gainesville finished the season ranked ninth in the country with a 1.7 rating.

Only two teams with a sub-.500 record finished ahead of Florida — No. 35 TCU (5-7) and No. 36 Auburn (6-7).

Connelly notes that bowl season adjustments need to be made with his system. Some things make sense, such as Georgia jumping to No. 2 following a dominant win over now-No. 9 Florida State. Meanwhile, the College Football Playoff runner-up Washington dropped all the way to No. 13 with the loss.

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Wisconsin remains SP+’s best team in the Big Ten West

Wisconsin remains SP+’s best team in the Big Ten West

Wisconsin fell 24-10 to Ohio State on Saturday, falling to 5-3 on the season and 3-2 in Big Ten play. Somehow, some way, the team is still technically tied for first place in the Big Ten West.

The Badgers were sizable underdogs to the No. 3-ranked Buckeye team. So despite the loss, the team did not fall in ESPN’s SP+. Wisconsin remains ranked No. 27 in the metric, with the No. 63 offense and No. 12 defense.

As has been the case all season, the Badgers are still SP+’s top-ranked team in the West division. Unfortunately, the division is not solely decided based on Bill Connelly’s numbers.

  1. Wisconsin (No. 27)
  2. Iowa (No. 36)
  3. Minnesota (No. 49)
  4. Nebraska (No. 51)
  5. Illinois (No. 62)
  6. Purdue (No. 82)
  7. Northwestern (No. 92)

Good news for the Badgers: four Big Ten games remain against Indiana (No. 95), Northwestern (No. 92), Nebraska (No. 51) and Minnesota (No. 49). It’s a winnable final stretch.

Gators rise in ESPN’s SP+ rankings after bye week

Florida moves up one spot despite resting during the bye week in ESPN’s SP+ rankings.

Another week of college football has gone by, which means numerous variations of rankings are being released one by one.

ESPN staff writer Bill Connelly consumes hours of football throughout the week and releases weekly editions of his SP+ rankings. The rankings are based on “a tempo-and-opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.”

This week, the Florida Gators ranked at No. 30, moving up one spot despite resting during the bye week. The Gators were in idle, but the UCF Knights suffered a 31-29 loss after traveling to take on the Oklahoma Sooners.

The Gators’ overall rating rose to 9.2 — a rise of two decimal places. The offense was rated with at 32.0 and the defense earned a 23.1 rating. This could be best summarized as a solid offense with a defense that could use some work after its last contests against South Carolina and Kentucky.

Connelly invented the SP+ system during his stint at Football Outsiders in 2008, and summarizes his thought process while ranking the teams.

“If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall,” Connelly said. “If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

The Florida Gators will attempt to dethrone the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. EDT and will broadcast on CBS Sports.

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Wisconsin remains the Big Ten West favorite in ESPN SP+’s Week 4 rankings

Wisconsin is miles ahead of the rest of the West:

Wisconsin played its best game of the young season Friday night, defeating Purdue 38-17 to improve to 1-0 in Big Ten play.

The win improved Badgers fans’ outlook for the rest of the year and Big Ten West race. It did also, however, see the team fall a few spots in ESPN SP+’s Week 4 ranking.

Wisconsin entered the matchup ranked No. 25 in the Week 3 ranking, with the No. 44-ranked offense and No. 15 defense. After the convincing victory, the team now sits at No. 27 overall, with the nation’s No. 39-ranked offense and No. 18 defense.

Related: Big Ten Power Rankings after Week 4: The Big Ten West is really, really, bad

The Badgers do remain the clear favorites to win the Big Ten West, however. They remain ranked behind the three top Big Ten teams of Michigan (No. 1), Ohio State (No. 3) and Penn State (No. 10), but sit far ahead of the closest West contender Iowa at No. 39.

Wisconsin is off this week before returning home for an interesting crossover matchup with a pesky Rutgers team. Then the schedule heats up, with critical games upcoming against Illinois, Iowa and Ohio State.

Wisconsin firmly in the top 20 of ESPN SP+’s final preseason rankings

ESPN’s SP+’s final preseason ranking is always the last milestone before football actually begins. The rankings dropped yesterday.

Wisconsin is projected at a similar spot in every preseason ranking thus far. The USATODAYSports AFCA Coaches Poll has the Badgers at No. 21 and the AP Poll has the team at No. 19.

ESPN’s SP+’s final preseason ranking is always the last milestone before football actually begins. The rankings dropped yesterday. To kill the suspense, Wisconsin ranks No. 19.

The metric has the Badgers with the No. 43-ranked offense and No. 10 defense. It projects the team at 8.9 total wins, 6.2 conference wins and the No. 59-ranked strength of schedule in the country.

Consider this a broken record as we enter a Wisconsin football season: if the offense clicks and rises into the nation’s top 20, the Badgers could be in for a very special season.

Bill Connelly says Wisconsin was one college football’s best programs of the 2010s

Wisconsin’s run from 2010-2019 earned the program a high ranking in ESPN’s list

ESPN’s Bill Connelly recently unveiled a piece detailing the best college football programs of each decade going back to the 1920s.

Wisconsin appeared a few times on his list. It was listed as the ninth-best program of the 1950s and, notably, the sixth-best program of the 2010s.

Wisconsin’s performance from 2010-2019 included two top-five finishes. The program fell behind only Alabama (four national championships), Ohio State (2014 national champs), LSU (2019 national champs), Oklahoma (two top-five finishes) and Georgia (five top-five finishes). Surprisingly, the Badgers slotted in above a Clemson program which won two national championships during that timeframe.

The Wisconsin fanbase may not appreciate the program’s performance from 2010-2019 nearly enough. It makes some sense, as the end-of-year standing consistently fell behind the caliber of the team. Narrow Big Ten Championship losses in 2016, 2017 and 2019 go a long way toward crafting that narrative.

With Luke Fickell now at the helm hoping to get Wisconsin back to championship status, I think another run similar to the 2010s would be viewed as a huge success. Who knows what happens when the Badgers take the field in a College Football Playoff game or Big Ten Championship. But if Fickell’s teams are at or above the level as some of Chryst’s best, the finishing results may finally look a bit better.

ESPN releases preseason SP+ rankings for 2023 college football season

Ahead of the 2023 college football season, ESPN’s Bill Connelly believes the Florida Gators will enter the season in the SP+ Top 20.

ESPN recently released their 2023 preseason SP+ rankings, with the Florida Gators coming in among the top 20 in the country.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly developed the SP+ ranking system in 2008 and, in his own words, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

There are three primary factors that Connelly uses to determine the preseason SP+ rankings: returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.

Recent production refers to how much talent that contributed is returning for the next season. Recent recruiting provides context for the caliber of players that will be replacing those that have left the program. Recent history incorporates the previous two-to-four seasons of results, providing an indication of what the program’s goals are and what direction they are going in.

Florida comes in at No. 20 nationally, No. 7 in the SEC, and No. 3 in the SEC East, behind Georgia (No.1) and Tennessee (No. 6) in their division. They scored a national rating of 15.1, less than half of what the No. 1 ranked Bulldogs scored (31.7). Offensively, they come in at No. 22 in the nation with a score of 37.3. Defensively, they come in at No. 34 in the nation with a score of 22.2.

Using Connelly’s three factors, the rating makes sense for the Orange and Blue. If you only consider the amount of roster turnover from last season, the SP+ rankings would probably have been much lower than No. 20. But because of [autotag]Billy Napier[/autotag]’s increased quality of players brought in via the transfer portal and the last two recruiting cycles, the projection bumped the Gators up a bit. The upward trajectory of the program also plays a factor.

The first look at the 2023 Florida Gators team will come on Thursday, April 13, when the Orange and Blue play in their annual Orange and Blue Debut spring game. Last year, Napier moved the game from a Saturday to Thursday in order to get more recruits on campus. It seems like the program liked how it went as this is now the second consecutive year that the game will be held on a Thursday. The Gators announced a crowd of about 45,000 fans for last season’s game.

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Florida outside the top 100 in SP+ returning production rankings for 2023

ESPN’s Bill Connelly has released his 2023 returning production rankings, with the Gators outside the top 100.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his 2023 returning production rankings which utilizes his SP+ model, with the Florida Gators returning 54% of their production and landing outside the top 100.

Connelly developed the SP+ ranking system in 2008 and, in his own words, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

The returning production rankings use a slightly different formula than Connelly’s traditional SP+ rankings. They take into account a team’s previous season’s statistics for players that will be returning in the upcoming season.

Coming in at No. 107 in the country, the Florida Gators are expected to have a lot of new faces on both sides of the ball. The offensive returning production comes in at No. 103 with 55% returning production, while the defensive returning production comes in at No. 91 with 53% returning production.

Both the offensive and defensive numbers make perfect sense. The Gators saw massive roster turnover on both sides of the ball, as [autotag]Billy Napier[/autotag] is continuing the process of crafting the roster in his image. According to On3, of the 30 players in Florida’s 2023 recruiting class, only 20 came from high school.

Of those 20, 16 are blue-chip recruits, meaning they are considered a four- or five-star prospects. The other 10 players are transfers, as Napier has been active in using the transfer portal to turn over the roster.

The Gators still have work to do to compete for championships at the highest level, but recrafting the roster is a necessary, albeit long, process. For 2023, they’ll have to compete against teams like Florida State, who return 87% of their production from a 10-3 team, good for the most returning production in the nation.

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Here’s where Florida lands in ESPN’s final 2022 season SP+ rankings

The Gators are a top 35 team in ESPN’s final SP+ rankings of the 2022 season, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

ESPN has released their final college football SP+ rankings of the 2022 college football season, with the Florida Gators coming in as a top 35 team in the country.

Connelly developed the SP+ ranking system in 2008 and, in his own words, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

The offensive metric is much kinder to the Orange and Blue than the defensive metric. Offensively, the Gators are the 24th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 37.5. Defensively, Florida is the 69th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 27.4. With such contrasting numbers, the Gators’ final 2022 record of 6-7 (including their Las Vegas Bowl loss) makes perfect sense.

The stark difference in the rating properly explains Billy Napier’s first season in charge of the Orange and Blue. Offensively, the Gators were one of the best-rushing teams in the nation. Their three-headed monster of [autotag]Montrell Johnson Jr[/autotag]., [autotag]Trevor Etienne[/autotag], and [autotag]Anthony Richardson[/autotag] did their jobs behind a talented offensive line led by consensus first-team All-American guard O’Cyrus Torrence. Both Richardson and Torrence have declared for the NFL draft while Etienne and Johnson Jr. are expected to be the backbone of the Gators’ offensive identity in 2023.

Florida’s defensive ranking accurately represents the journey the unit took over the course of the season. Sometimes, the defense looked lost and confused. Other times, the defense was locked in and determined to get off the field. They even recorded at least one turnover in all 12 games this season.

After their Las Vegas Bowl loss to Oregon State, the Gators turned their attention to the transfer portal and recruiting to continue building the roster in Napier’s image. They currently have 21 players in their 2023 class, with most of them considered to be blue-chip (four and five-star) prospects. They have also landed multiple players in the transfer portal. With over 25 players leaving the program via the NFL draft and the portal, expect to see many new faces in Gainesville in 2023.

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Florida in the top 40 of ESPN’s SP+ rankings after bowl season

The Gators are a top 40 team in ESPN’s post-bowl season SP+ rankings for the 2022 season, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

ESPN has released their latest college football SP+ rankings after bowl season, with the Florida Gators coming in as a top 40 team in the country.

Connelly developed the SP+ ranking system in 2008 and, in his own words, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

The offensive metric is much kinder to the Orange and Blue than the defensive metric. Offensively, the Gators are the 28th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 37.2. Defensively, Florida is the 70th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 27.7. With such contrasting numbers, the Gators’ final 2022 record of 6-7 (including their Las Vegas Bowl loss) makes perfect sense.

The stark difference in the rating properly explains Billy Napier’s first season in charge of the Orange and Blue. Offensively, the Gators were one of the best-rushing teams in the nation. Their three-headed monster of [autotag]Montrell Johnson Jr[/autotag]., [autotag]Trevor Etienne[/autotag], and [autotag]Anthony Richardson[/autotag] did their jobs behind a talented offensive line led by consensus first-team All-American guard [autotag]O’Cyrus Torrence[/autotag]. Both Richardson and Torrence have declared for the NFL draft. Etienne and Johnson Jr. are expected to be the backbone of the Gators’ offensive identity in 2023.

Florida’s defensive ranking accurately represents the journey the unit took over the course of the season. Sometimes, the defense looked lost and confused. Other times, the defense was locked in and determined to get off the field. They even recorded at least one turnover in all 12 games this season

After their Las Vegas Bowl loss to Oregon State, the Gators turned their attention to the transfer portal and recruiting to continue building the roster in Napier’s image. With over 25 players leaving the program via the NFL draft and the transfer portal, expect to see many new faces in Gainesville in 2023.

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