Tag: SP+

Gators enter SP+ rankings top 25 after beating FSU in Week 14

Florida football logs in at No. 22 in the nation according to ESPN’s SP+ rankings after beating FSU on Saturday.

Billy Napier and his Florida football team wrapped up the regular season on Saturday with a 31-11 triumph over the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee. The victory secured the Gators’ first winning season in four years as well as payback for losses to the ‘Noles the past two seasons.

The Orange and Blue’s late-season surge began with home wins over the LSU Tigers (who were ranked in the top 25 at the time) and Ole Miss Rebels, respectively, to clinch a playoff berth. While FSU came into the matchup with just two wins rivalry games just hit differently — especially when one is the victor.

Billy Connelly released his latest SP+ rankings on Sunday in which the Gators found themselves among the top 25 schools in the nation.

Florida football’s SP+ ranking, rating

After the conclusion of the college football regular-season schedule, Connelly’s rankings raised the Gators from No. 28 last week out of 134 Football Bowl Subdivision schools with a 10.2 overall rating to No. 22 with a 12.0 rating. That places Napier and Co. between the No. 21 Boise State Broncos (12.1) and No. 23 Missouri Tigers (12.0).

On offense, the team rose three spots to No. 34 and the corps’ rating increased 0.4 points to 32.0. The defense made a big jump, moving up from No. 42 to No. 33; however, the rating fell from 23.6 to 22.0.

The special teams unit, which spent a few weeks as the top-rated corps in the country at the start of the schedule, moved up one spot to No. 3 while holding onto a whopping 2.1 points for the position room — the highest rating of the fall, with most of the season spent maxed out at 0.4.

SP+ rankings top 10 teams

Despite the rivalry game loss to the Michigan Wolverines, the Ohio State Buckeyes held onto the top spot in the rankings for the fifth straight week, while the Oregon Ducks moved up a spot into second place. The Ole Miss Rebels are No. 3 followed by the Texas Longhorns and Alabama Crimson Tide, respectively, to round out the top five.

The Penn State Nittany Lions hold the sixth spot while the Georgia Bulldogs, Tennessee Volunteers, Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Miami Hurricanes, respectively, wrap up the top 10.

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Up next for Florida

That is the end of the regular-season schedule for the Orange and Blue. Now the Gator Nation waits with bated breath to hear which bowl game their beloved football team will play in this December. Stay tuned to this website for more information.

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SP+ prediction for Gators-Seminoles rivalry matchup in Week 14

ESPN’s SP+ model predicts a strong finish to the regular season for the Orange and Blue.

One of the biggest college football rivalry games in the nation is set to take place this Saturday in Tallahassee, where the Florida Gators will go head-to-head with the Florida State Seminoles in a series that dates back to 1958.

The Orange and Blue have seen a late-season surge that clinched a bowl berth last weekend after beating the then-ninth-ranked Ole Miss Rebels in the Swamp. This followed a top-25 upset of the LSU Tigers team inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium as well.

The Garnet and Gold, however, have had a fall to forget, winning just two games with a brutal nine losses to go with them. Mike Norvell’s team has plummeted precipitously from their undefeated regular-season campaign in 2023.

Ahead of the 68th meeting between the two schools on the collegiate gridiron, ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his SP+ predictions for the rivalry matchup. His computer model favors Florida by 12.6 points over Florida State with a 79% win probability and a projected final score of 31-19.

Compare that with the initial spread for the game (Florida, -14.5 points) for a difference of 1.9 between the two.

Billy Napier and Co. sit at No. 28 out of 134 FBS schools (10.2 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into the last game of the regular season, while the visiting squad is 85th in the nation (-4.9).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

How to watch UF-FSU

The Gators will face the Seminoles inside Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 30. The game will kick off at 7 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN 2.

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Wisconsin football plummets in ESPN FPI and SP+ after loss to Nebraska

Wisconsin football plummets in ESPN FPI and SP+ after loss to Nebraska

Wisconsin’s season continued to dive in the wrong direction on Saturday, the latest result a 44-25 loss to rival Nebraska.

The Badgers are now 5-6 on the season and 3-5 in Big Ten play. They stood at 5-2 and 3-1, respectively, just four weeks ago. What followed was a home loss to Penn State, a blowout loss to Iowa, a narrow defeat to top-ranked Oregon and Saturday’s historic loss to Nebraska. That four-game stretch has changed the 2024 season, and is beginning to change the overall sentiment surrounding Luke Fickell and the program.

Related: Biggest takeaways from Wisconsin’s 44-25 loss to Nebraska

Part of that sentiment is seen in ESPN FPI and SP+’s latest updates.

Wisconsin entered the Nebraska game ranked No. 34 in FPI. The loss dropped the team down to No. 41. FPI now projects the Badgers’ final record at 5.5 – 6.5 and gives it just a 51% chance to defeat Minnesota in Week 14 and make a bowl game.

SP+ is even less confident in the team’s quality. The Nebraska loss dropped Wisconsin from No. 50 to No. 59 in the metric. It is now ranked as the No. 13 team in the Big Ten, ahead of only Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan State, Northwestern and Purdue.

Having a coin-flip Week 14 game to reach bowl eligibility and being ranked in the class of Rutgers and Maryland is far below the program’s typical standard. It’s also far below the expectation set by both Chris McIntosh and Luke Fickell when the latter was hired in 2022.

A win over Minnesota to extend the program’s bowl streak to 23 games would be an important step in the right direction. Otherwise, the program’s rapid fall from national relevance will only continue.

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Gators crack SP+ rankings top 30 after Week 13 win over Ole Miss

ESPN’s SP+ rankings feel pretty bullish on the Orange and Blue after Florida’s bowl-game-clinching win on Saturday over Ole Miss.

The Gator Nation had its prayers answered on Saturday in the Swamp, where the Florida football team defeated the then-ninth-ranked Ole Miss Rebels, 24-17, to earn its sixth win of the season. That magical mark punches the Gators’ ticket into the 2024 postseason.

Despite entering the Southeastern Conference matchup a double-digit underdog to the visitors, the Orange and Blue went toe-to-toe with the top-10 team and pulled off its second upset win in as many weeks. The decision to keep Billy Napier as head coach of the program is looking better and better each weekend.

As one would expect, Florida got a boost in the polls and rankings — including four votes in the AP Poll — after earning its bowl berth. ESPN’s Billy Connelly released his latest SP+ rankings on Sunday in which the Gators improved their position by three spots.

Florida football’s SP+ ranking, rating

Following the victory inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Connelly’s rankings raised the Gators from No. 31 last week out of 134 Football Bowl Subdivision schools with a 6.9 overall rating to No. 28 with a 10.2 rating. That places Napier and Co. between the No. 27 Tulane Green Wave and No. 29 Arkansas Razorbacks.

On offense, the team fell four spots to No. 37 while the corps’ rating fell back to where it was two weeks ago at 31.6 — down from 32.3. The defense also gained a little ground in the rankings, moving up from No. 43 to No. 42; however, the rating fell from 23.7 to 23.6.

The special teams unit, which spent a few weeks as the top-rated corps in the country at the start of the schedule, came in at No. 4 with a whopping 2.1 points for the position room. That is the highest rating of the fall, with most of the season spent maxed out at 0.4.

SP+ rankings top 10 teams

The Ohio State Buckeyes maintained the top spot in the rankings for the fourth straight week, while the Ole Miss Rebels somehow came in second despite the loss. The Oregon Ducks, Texas Longhorns and Georgia Bulldogs wrap up the teams in the top five, respectively.

The Alabama Crimson Tide fell to sixth in the rankings with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Miami Hurricanes, Tennessee Volunteers and Penn State Nittany Lions, respectively, wrapping up the top 10.

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Up next for Florida

The Gators wrap up the 2024 regular season schedule in Tallahassee for their annual rivalry game against the Florida State Seminoles. The game will take place inside Doak Campbell Stadium and will kick off at either 7 or 7:30 p.m. ET; broadcast details have yet to be determined.

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Here’s what SP+ predicts for the Florida-Ole Miss matchup in Week 13

The Gators have quite an obstacle to overcome this Saturday in the Swamp. Here’s what SP+ predicts.

Just a pair of games remain on Florida football’s regular season docket and one remaining home game. That matchup comes this weekend in the Swamp against the Ole Miss Rebels who now stand between the Gators and a winning season.

The Orange and Blue are 5-5 overall entering the weekend with a 3-4 mark against fellow Southeastern Conference schools. The Rebs have amassed an 8-2 total tally with four wins in six tries in SEC play; Ole Miss is also ranked ninth in this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his SP+ predictions for college football’s Week 13 slate, which favors the Rebels by 16.1 points over the Gators while giving Ole Miss an 84% chance of winning and a projected final score of 35-19. Compare that with the initial spread for the game (Mississippi, -6.6 points) for a difference of 9.5 between the two.

Billy Napier and Co. sit at No. 31 out of 134 FBS schools (9.0 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into Saturday’s final home game, while the visiting squad is fourth in the nation (27.6).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

How to watch Gators-Rebels

The Gators play their final home game of the season against the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday, Nov. 23. Kickoff is set for noon ET and will be broadcast on ABC.

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Gators bounce back in ESPN’s SP+ rankings after LSU victory

Florida sits just outside the top 30 in ESPN’s SP+ rankings after beating LSU.

The football gods smiled on the Florida Gators on Saturday, when they upset the then-22nd-ranked LSU Tigers in the Swamp, 27-16. The win opens the door for a postseason appearance with just two games remaining on the fall slate.

While it was not a perfect performance, the Orange and Blue got a complete effort from all three corps — offense, defense and special teams. The program got a huge boost with the return of [autotag]DJ Lagway[/autotag] under center, who made some key plays down the stretch.

The SEC rivalry win gives Florida a tidy boost in many of the media’s standings despite still receiving no votes in the US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Poll. They did move up in Bill Connelly’s ESPN SP+ rankings, however.

Florida football’s SP+ ranking, rating

Following the victory inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Connelly’s rankings moved the Gators up from No. 39 last week out of 134 Football Bowl Subdivision schools with a 6.9 overall rating to No. 31 with a 9.0 rating. That puts Billy Napier’s squad between the No. 30 North Carolina Tar Heels and No. 32 Army Black Knights.

On offense, the team remained at No. 33 while the rating rose from 31.6 to 32.3. The defense gained some ground in the rankings, moving up from No. 49 to No. 43; however, the rating fell from 25.0 to 23.7.

The special teams unit, which spent a few weeks as the top-rated corps in the country at the start of the schedule, earned back the 0.1 points they lost last week while moving up from No. 25 to No. 12 with a 0.4 rating.

SP+ rankings top 10 teams

The Ohio State Buckeyes maintain the top spot in the rankings for the third straight week, while the Alabama Crimson Tide leapfrogged the Texas Longhorns to take over the second spot; the Ole Miss Rebels and Oregon Ducks round out the rest of the top five.

The Georgia Bulldogs held onto their No. 6 spot, followed by the Penn State Nittany Lions and Notre Dame Fighting Irish — who swapped the seventh and eighth spots, respectively. The Miami Hurricanes and Tennessee Volunteers also switched places for the ninth and tenth spots respectively.

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Up next for the Gators

The Gators play their final home game of the season against the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday, Nov. 23. Kickoff is set for noon ET and will be broadcast on ABC.

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Here’s what SP+ predicts for the Florida-LSU matchup in Week 12

Here is what ESPN’s SP+ predictions foresees this weekend inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

The Florida Gators return to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium this weekend to host the LSU Tigers for a good old-fashioned Southeastern Conference rivalry game as the end of the regular season quickly nears.

The Orange and Blue are just 4-5 this fall with an even weaker 2-4 mark against fellow league schools while the Purple and Gold are 6-3 overall (3-2 in SEC play) while holding onto the No. 22 spot in the US LBM Coaches Poll. However, LSU has been in a bit of a decline in recent weeks, dropping a pair to the Texas A&M Aggies and Alabama Crimson Tide, respectively.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his SP+ predictions for college football’s Week 12 slate, which favors the Tigers by 6.1 points over the Gators while giving LSU a 65% chance of winning and a projected final score of 33-27. Compare that with the initial spread for the game (LSU, -4.5 points) for a difference of 1.6 between the two.

Billy Napier and Co. sit at No. 39 out of 134 FBS schools (6.9 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into Saturday’s home game, while the visiting squad is 15th in the nation (15.5).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

How to watch Gators-Tigers

The Gators host the Tigers in college football’s Week 12 on Saturday, Nov. 16. The SEC matchup will kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ABC.

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Here’s what SP+ predicts for the Florida-Texas matchup in Week 11

The SP+ prediction for the Florida-Texas matchup in Austin this coming weekend strongly favors the home team.

Florida football opened up its brutal second-half stretch of schedule with a loss to the Georgia Bulldogs last Saturday, dropping the Gators to 4-4 overall this season and 2-3 against fellow Southeastern Conference schools.

So that is one down and three to go, as far as top-25 teams lined up to face the Orange and Blue in November. Next up are the Texas Longhorns, who have made quite a statement in their first years as members of the SEC and currently hold the fifth spot in the US LBM Coaches Poll.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his predictions for college football’s Week 11 slate, which favors the ‘Horns by 19.6 points over the Gators while giving Texas an 89% chance of winning and a projected final score of 37-18. Compare that with the initial spread for the game (UT, -21.5 points) for a difference of 1.9 between the two.

Billy Napier and Co. sit at No. 26 out of 134 FBS schools (11.5 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into Saturday’s road matchup while the home squad is second (28.7).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

How to watch Gators-Longhorns

Florida hits the road to face Texas in Austin on Saturday, Nov. 9. Kickoff is set for noon ET and will be broadcast on ABC.

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Gators slip out of SP+ rankings top 25 after UGA loss, but just barely

The Gators come in at No. 26 in ESPN’s SP+ rankings while the special teams somehow leapt up the standings.

Week 10 of the college football schedule was not kind to the Florida Gators. In fact, the sports gods were downright cruel to the Orange and Blue over the course of the 34-20 loss to the Georgia Bulldogs in Jacksonville.

After [autotag]Billy Napier[/autotag]’s squad came out strong both on offense and defense, the absolute worst-case scenario occurred — true freshman quarterback [autotag]DJ Lagway[/autotag], who is replacing incumbent starter [autotag]Graham Mertz[/autotag], went down with an injury that ended the game and possibly the season for the former five-star recruit.

Third-string walk-on QB [autotag]Aidan Warner[/autotag] did his best to pace the Gators on offense while the defense continued its dominant afternoon, but alas, it was not enough to outlast the deep UGA talent pool.

The good news is that the media appears to have judged Florida on a sliding scale based on their performance rather than just the cold, hard results. This includes ESPN’s SP+ ranking, which employs a computer model to determine its standings each week.

Florida football’s SP+ ranking, rating

Last update, Napier and Co. were ranked No. 21 out of 134 Football Bowl Subdivision schools with a 13.0 overall rating following its Week 9 bye. Following Saturday’s results, Florida slipped five spots to No. 26 with an 11.5 overall rating.

On offense, the team inched up a spot from No. 21 and a 35.3 rating to No. 20 and a 34.4 rating; the defense remained at No. 41 while its rating increased from 22.7 to 23.2.

The special teams unit, which spent a few weeks as the top-rated corps in the country at the start of the schedule, somehow jumped back up from No. 11 to No. 4 with a 0.4 rating — the same it has had all season — despite a major field goal attempt mishap.

SP+ rankings top 10 teams

The Ohio State Buckeyes claimed the top spot in the rankings this week, edging out the Texas Longhorns, who held the pole position last week, by just 0.3 points (29.0 vs. 28.7); Georgia, the Ole Miss Rebels and Oregon Ducks round out the top five, respectively. 

The Alabama Crimson Tide come in at No. 6, followed by the Miami Hurricanes, Penn State Nittany Lions, Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Tennessee Volunteers, respectively, to round out the top 10 schools.

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

What’s next for the Gators?

Florida hits the road to face Texas in Austin on Saturday, Nov. 9. Kickoff is set for noon ET and will be broadcast on ABC.

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SP+ prediction for Florida vs. Georgia in college football’s Week 10

The ‘Dawgs are strongly favored over the Gators according to the SP+ predictions, but so was Tennessee if you recall.

The biggest game of the Florida Gators’ college football schedule — regardless of the season’s expectations — for over the last 100 years has been against their rivals to the north, the Georgia Bulldogs.

The matchup has been played almost exclusively on neutral ground in Jacksonville and will once again take place inside EverBank Stadium this Saturday. Dubbed the unofficial World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, this series rarely fails to deliver on excitement.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his predictions for college football’s Week 10 slate on Sunday, which favor the ‘Dawgs by 12.5 points over the Gators while giving Georgia a 78% chance of winning and a projected final score of 34-22. Compare that with the spread for the game (UGA, -16.5 points) for a difference of 4.0 from the betting lines.

Billy Napier and Co. sit at No. 21 out of 134 FBS schools (13.0 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into Saturday’s rivalry game while Kirby Smart’s squad is sixth (25.6 overall rating).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

How to watch Florida-Georgia in Week 10

Florida and Georgia face off for a Week 10 rivalry battle in Jacksonville on Saturday, Nov. 2 with kickoff slated for 3:30 p.m. ET. The pregame festivities will be featured on SEC Nation and the game will be broadcast on ABC.

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