Sonoma Raceway odds Sonoma Raceway predictions Sonoma Raceway betting

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Sonoma Raceway Sunday for the 2024 Toyota Save Mart 350. Green flag is scheduled to drop shortly after 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2024 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.

2024 Toyota Save Mart 350: What you need to know

Joe Gibbs Racing driver Martin Truex Jr. posted a victory at Sonoma last season, the 4th of his Cup Series career at the California road course track
Penske Racing’s Ryan Blaney, who suffered heartbreak at Gateway by running out of gas last week, was fastest in practice Friday at 97.866 mph on the repaved surface at Sonoma
Richard Childress Racing’s Will Brown, the Australian Supercar star, makes his NASCAR Cup Series debut. He had a practice speed of 97.617 mph Friday
RCR’s Kyle Busch finished 2nd last season, 2.979 seconds behind Truex Jr.
RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher was 4th at Sonoma in 2023, and he has a solid 14.1 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 7 career Cup starts at the road course, leading 8 laps
Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott has never won at Sonoma in a Cup car, but he leads all active drivers with a 12.1 AFP in 7 starts while finishing as a runner-up with 5 finishes inside the top 10
Penske’s Joey Logano has never won at Sonoma, but he is 2nd among active full-time drivers with a 12.9 AFP and 6 top-10 runs in 14 Cup starts
23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick has had a tough time in 3 Cup starts at the Bay Area road course, posting a dismal 29.0 AFP despite a solid 5.7 Average Start spot
Reddick’s teammate, Bubba Wallace, has also had issues at Sonoma, managing a poor 24.4 AFP in 5 career starts with 1 DNF and 0 laps led
Road course ringer A.J. Allmendinger, driving the No. 16 Chevy for Kaulig Racing, has surprisingly struggled in his Cup career at Sonoma, posting a dismal 22.1 AFP with 3 top-10 finishes and 1 DNF despite a solid 10.9 Average Start position

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

2024 Toyota Save Mart 350 – Expert pick

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:34 a.m. ET.

MARTIN TRUEX JR. (+1400) is a good bet for the repeat at Sonoma.

For whatever reason, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver is the best active driver at this track. He knows the turns better than anybody, and is crisp, doesn’t lift, and he rarely makes a mistake. The only thing that could potentially derail him is a careless driver collecting him when trying to make a wild pass.

MTJ leads all active drivers with a 98.5 Driver Rating in 17 career Cup starts at Sonoma, posting 4 wins, 6 top-5 finishes and 7 top-10 runs, while also leading everybody with 264 laps led. It’s rather surprising he isn’t the chalk, so take advantage.

2024 Toyota Save Mart 350 – Contenders

RYAN BLANEY (+800) should have a chip on his shoulder after running out of gas late, blowing the win at the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway last weekend. He can take solace in the fact that at least teammate Austin Cindric benefitted, and not another team.

Anyway, Blaney looked to be on a mission in practice Friday, topping the charts in speed. He has a respectable 16.6 AFP in 7 career Cup starts, while posting 4 top-10 finishes, including a best of 3rd.

At this price, Blaney is a value as he is a driver on a mission.

2024 Toyota Save Mart 350 props

Prop odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

DANIEL SUAREZ (+140) matchbet vs. Michael McDowell

Suarez ended up winning the 2022 Toyota Save Mart 350 for Trackhouse Racing, holding off Buescher and McDowell, a pair of Fords.

McDowell was solid in practice Friday, posting a speed of 97.354 mph, while Suarez tumbled to 27th with a speed of 96.263 mph. But Suarez was a winner here before, and knows how to get the job done. He is a tremendous value at plus-money, regardless.

KYLE BUSCH (+145) matchbet vs. Ty Gibbs

The old dog Busch knows a thing or two about racing at Sonoma, picking up 2 checkered flags with 7 top-5 runs, 9 top-10 finishes and 132 laps led in 18 career Cup starts wit ha solid 14.8 AFP.

Gibbs is a young buck who is still cutting his teeth on the Cup circuit. He was 18th last season in his initial run at Sonoma Raceway. I’ll take tried and true any day of the week, especially at plus-money.

Check out Motorsports Wire: For the auto racing fan, USA TODAY Sports Media Group’s website covers NASCAR, F1, IndyCar and more.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X, Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook..

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1950]

2023 Toyota Save Mart 350: What you need to know

Stewart-Haas Racing’s Daniel Suarez picked up his first NASCAR Cup Series win last season in the Toyota Save Mart 350 at Sonoma

Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin is on the pole after posting a best speed of 92.178 mph, just edging out 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick (92.068 mph)

Hendrick Motorsports drive Kyle Larson won the 2021 race, and the California native has 94 laps led and a 15.1 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 8 Cup starts at the track. He was sharp in practice, posting a best speed of 91.73 mph to top the charts

Team Penske driver Austin Cindric made his Cup debut at Sonoma last season, and he posted a 5th-place finish after starting 25th

SHR’s Kevin Harvick will make what is expected to be his final Sonoma start. He has a win, 7 top-5 finishes and 11 top-10 runs with 95 laps led in 21 Cup starts with a 12.8 AFP

Joe Gibbs Racing driver Martin Truex Jr. leads all active drivers with 3 wins at Sears Point, while posting 5 top-5 finishes, 213 laps led and a 17.7 AFP with 3 DNFs. He was 2nd in practice with a 91.079 mph

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is the only other active driver besides MTJ with multiple DNFs, but he doesn’t have nearly the same good results. Stenhouse has a 27.0 AFP, and 18th is his best finish at the track

Christopher Bell (25.5 AFP – 2 Cup starts), Michael McDowell (23.9 AFP – 10 starts – 1 DNF), Ryan Preece (25.0 AFP – 2 starts), Tyler Reddick (27.0 AFP – 2 starts) and Bubba Wallace (26.8 AFP – 4 starts – 1 DNF) have all struggled early in their Cup careers at Sonoma

AJ Allmendinger, normally a road course specialist, has struggled at Sonoma in 11 career Cup starts. While he has led 65 laps, he had just 2 top-10 finishes and 1 DNF with a subpar 23.5 AFP. He is the top Chevy in the starting grid, going off 5th

2023 Toyota Save Mart 350 – Expert picks

KYLE LARSON (+350) is the chalk and he is a strong play for Sunday’s race. He has enjoyed recent success at the track since the 2020 installment was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While he was just 15th last season, he had a strong practice and qualifying session leading up to the race. And he won the 2021 race after the hiatus.

He was also strong in practice Saturday, leading all drivers with a 91.73 mph mark, well ahead of 2nd place and Truex at 91.079 mph.

2023 Toyota Save Mart 350 – Long shot

Take a chance on 2 long-shot drivers for a chance to win.

CHASE BRISCOE (+6600) is worth a small-unit play. He has finished 13th and 17th in his 2 Cup starts at Sonoma, improving each time. In addition to a small-unit play, a CHASE BRISCOE TOP-10 FINISH (+2200 ) is a value pick at plus-money.

In addition to taking a flier on Briscoe, look at CHRIS BUESCHER (+1700), too. He was 14th in practice with a 90.379 mph best speed, and he was 7th in qualifying Saturday, managing a best speed of 91.811 mph, just ahead of Sonoma extraordinaire Truex. Like Briscoe above, a CHRIS BUESCHER TOP-10 FINISH (+500 ) is also an attractive pick.

2023 Toyota Save Mart 350 prop pick(s)

TOYOTA (+145) – Top Manufacturer

I know Toyota is hopeful that one of their cars will win in the Toyota Save Mart 350, that’s for sure.

Hamlin is on the pole, Reddick managed a 2nd-place showing with a best speed of 92.068 mph, and Ty Gibbs was also dominant in practice and qualifying. In fact, he’ll go off 6th on Sunday. Bell was also 4th, with Truex lurking in the 8th starting spot. That’s 4 Toyotas in the Top 8 starting spots ahead of a bevy of Chevys.

While I like Larson (Chevy) to win, and Briscoe (Ford) and Buescher (Ford) as long-shot picks, playing Toyota seems a little silly. But as a backup play, or if you just want to cheer for a car type, not a particular driver, or you just want to hedge a little, Toyota has many other options in favorable starting positions to rise up and spoil the day for Chevy and Ford.