The SMU Mustangs (6-8, 1-0 American) battle the No. 2 Houston Cougars (14-1, 2-0) Thursday. Tip from Fertitta Center is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the SMU vs. Houston odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
Houston beat Central Florida 71-65 Saturday, failing to cover as 15.5-point home favorites. The Cougars are 10-5 against the spread (ATS) this season and have a strong 9-1 straight up at home with their only loss coming against Alabama on Dec. 10. Houston has covered 3 of its last 4 outings and is the best defensive team in the nation, ranking No. 1 in opponents’ points per game (50.9) and opponents’ field goal percentage (33.2%).
SMU crushed Tulsa 92-67 Sunday, covering the spread as an 8-point home favorite. The Mustangs have covered 5 in a row, 3 of which came at a neutral court, pushing their season-long record to 6-8 ATS. SMU’s strength is in its defense, ranking 120th in the nation in opponents’ field goal percentage (41.7%).
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SMU at Houston odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:12 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): SMU +900 (bet $100 to win $900) | Houston -3000 (bet $3,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): SMU +20.5 (-115) | Houston -20.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 130.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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SMU at Houston picks and predictions
Prediction
Houston 76, SMU 59
Moneyline
PASS.
Houston (-3000) is the far better team, but it has zero value on the moneyline. SMU (+900) is 0-3 straight up on the road, so despite the juicy price tag, there is no reason to think they can compete with one of the top teams in the nation.
Against the spread
LEAN SMU +20.5 (-115).
While SMU is not one of the top teams in the AAC, Houston hasn’t proven it can cover a spread of this size against a decent opponent. They crushed Tulsa 89-50, covering as a 20-point favorite, but SMU mowed through the Golden Hurricane as well.
Houston is 1-1 ATS in conference games while SMU is 1-0 ATS. The Mustangs’ efficient defense should be able to keep this game within 21 points.
Back SMU +20.5 (-115).
Over/Under
BET OVER 130.5 (-105).
Houston is 2-0 O/U in conference play while SMU is 1-0 O/U. The Cougars are 3-0-1 O/U in their last 4 games, scoring at least 80 points in 2 of their last 3 outings as well.
They do rank 69th in field goal percentage (47.1%) and they have an efficient halfcourt attack. Their rock-solid defense has allowed 57.5 points per game over their last 2, slightly higher than their season average.
SMU has scored at least 75 in 4 of its last 5 and put up 75 on current No. 17. TCU earlier this season. Considering the recent trends for both teams, back the OVER 130.5 (-105).
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