The Navy Midshipmen (3-3 overall, 3-1 AAC) travel to Dallas to take on their American Atlantic Conference rival SMU Mustangs (5-1, 2-1) Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Navy-SMU college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Mustangs are ranked 23rd in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Navy at SMU: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:54 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Navy +375 (bet $100 to win $375) | SMU -500 (bet $500 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Navy +13.5 (-110) | SMU -13.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 58.5 (O: -115 | U: -106)
Navy at SMU: Three things to know
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Navy was drubbed by Houston 37-21 and failed to cover as 14.5-point underdogs last week. Houston’s QB Clayton Tune picked apart the Midshipmen’s pass defense for 70.6 completion percentage with 316 passing yards and three passing touchdowns.
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SMU got smoked at home last week by Cincinnati 42-13. The Mustangs were truck-sticked by the Bearcats ground game, which ran 313 yards on 35 carries with five touchdowns.
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This head-to-head has been pretty one-sided in recent years with Navy winning nine of the previous 10 games against SMU (covering eight games).
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Navy at SMU: Odds, prediction, betting lines and picks
Prediction
SMU 33, Navy 28
Money line (ML)
PASS although I am tempted to sprinkle on Navy (+375). SMU’s run defense is suspect and we know Navy loves to run the ball. I am not impressed with SMU’s Top-25 ranking. The Mustangs were crushed when they played a good Cincinnati team and they’ve played the 64th-ranked schedule (according to Sports-Reference).
Against the spread (ATS)
Maybe I’m a sucker, but NAVY +13.5 (-110) is too many points for me to pass up.
The Midshipmen are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. SMU. Navy is going to run the ball and SMU has given up 189 or more rushing yards in every game aside from the meeting FCS-school Stephen F. Austin.
Look at all the success Cincinnati’s ground game had last week against SMU. Sure, Navy’s offensive line isn’t a big as Cincinnati’s, but the Midshipmen have performed better across most offensive line metrics from Football Outsiders.
Over/Under (O/U)
The main reason I cannot take Navy to pull off an upset is because its defense is ranked 67th in yards per game and 76th in points per game. QB Shane Buechele is one of the top passers in the AAC and should be able to get chunk plays against Navy. Also, Midshipmen QB Dalen Morris has proven he can connect with some deep balls if Navy has to go off game script to score points in a hurry. Last week, Morris completed 10-of-18 passes for 206 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
I only “LEAN” OVER 58.5 (-115) though because both teams are inefficient in converting on third downs and in the red zone.
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