In the final co-main event, Anthony Smith and Aleksandar Rakic meet in a light heavyweight bout at UFC on ESPN+ 33 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 9 p.m. ET.
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Smith (33-15) enters this fight with a two-inch reach disadvantage against his counterpart. It gets worse, as Rakic (12-2) also holds a 5.17 to 3.19 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and a 52.33 to 46.52 significant strikes-accuracy percentage.
Smith was dumped in a bout for the title at UFC 235 against Jon Jones, but bounced back with a win over Alexander Gustafsson June 1, 2019. However, he suffered a KO/TKO loss to Glover Teixeira in the main event May 13, 2020, falling in the fifth round. There is no shame losing to the likes of Jones and Teixeira, however. Rakic will be another strong opponent for the former top contender.
Rakic is an up-and-comer, but he was knocked off the rails a bit with a split-decision loss to Volkan Oezdemir last time out on Dec. 21, 2019. He had been 4-0 in his first four fights at the UFC level, including two KO/TKOs and a pair of unanimous decisions. In his 14 career professional fights, nine have ended via knockout with no losses. That’s his calling card.
Anthony Smith vs. Aleksandar Rakic betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:25 a.m. ET.
Rakic (-278) enters as the heavy favorite over Smith (+225). But you cannot risk nearly three times your potential return on Rakic, as Smith definitely owns the tools to make your night a poor one if he rises up with the upset.
I still think the favorite will be victorious, however, and it’s even-money betting RAKIC BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+100) on the 5-way line. That’s a much better play, with much less risk.
Another good bet, and you needn’t pick the exact winner, is just pinpointing the end of the fight. If you bet both ROUND 1 (+187) and ROUND 2 (+400), you can add to that bankroll. Yes, you’ll lose one of the bets, but as long as you win one, you’ll still be well ahead, especially if the fight ends in the second.
Lastly, a small-unit play on NO (-176): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? should be a safe play, and UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-143) is also worth a look, and is slightly less costly.
To watch the full card, sign up for ESPN+ now.
Also see:
- UFC on ESPN+ 33 pre-event facts (MMA Junkie)
- Rakic plans to ‘shock the world’ again (MMA Junkie)
- MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage
If you want some action on this MMA bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.
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