In a women’s flyweight title bout on the main card, Valentina Shevchenko faces Lauren Murphy at UFC 266 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC 266: Shevchenko vs. Murphy odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the early prelims at 6 p.m. ET, the prelims start at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ and the main card at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.
Shevchenko, the overwhelming favorite, won her strap Dec. 8, 2018, with a unanimous-decision victory over Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and has five successful title defenses since. The last came April 24 at UFC 261 in a Round 2 KO/TKO over Jessica Andrade.
Shevchenko has won three of her title defenses via KO/TKO, and two by way of unanimous-decision. Five of her last nine fights have ended inside the distance.
Murphy holds a 3.95-to-3.02 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over the southpaw Shevchenko. However, the champ has a 67.74 significant strikes accuracy percentage to just 52.32 for Murphy, and her ground game is much better, too. Shevchenko holds a 2.64-to-1.16 takedown average and a 0.38-to-0.10 submission average.
Murphy enters on a five-bout win streak, last easing past Joanne Calderwood by split decision June 12 at UFC 263. Three of her last four fights went the distance, so she knows how to hang around.
UFC 266 Shevchenko vs. Murphy: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:21 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Shevchenko -1800 (bet $1,800 to win $100) | Murphy +770 (bet $100 to win $770)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -130 | Under -105)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +190 | No -280)
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UFC 266 Shevchenko vs. Murphy: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Shevchenko (21-3-0) | Murphy (15-4-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
There is no way to justify playing such a heavy favorite like Shevchenko (-1800) straight up on the money line. Even in a parlay with several other plays, a winning ticket’s value would be dropped dramatically by including Shevchenko.
While the champ isn’t going down to Murphy, you have to get creative. Look to SHEVCHENKO BY TKO/KO (-127) for much better value. Yes, if she wins on points or by submission you’re out of luck, but three of her previous five title defenses have ended in KO/TKO wins. That’s your best bet.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-270): Will the fight go the distance? is a little too expensive for my liking. Instead, I prefer a two-round block.
Take SHEVCHENKO IN ROUND 3 (+650) and SHEVCHENKO IN ROUND 4 (+1000). If the champ wins in Rounds 3-4, you lose one end, but you’ll still be well ahead.
In addition, playing OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-130) is worth a look. Shevchenko is going to win, but Murphy is no pushover. She’ll make the champ work for it before her hand is raised.
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