Sevilla (1 wins, 3 losses, 2 draws) welcomes Atletico Madrid (3-2-1) to Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán on Saturday with kickoff set for 12:30 p.m. ET. Below, we preview Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid odds, and make our best La Liga bets, picks and predictions.
While there is still a majority of the season remaining, Atletico Madrid will want to get into the top 6 to compete in a major tournament. They sit 7th following a 2-1 loss to Real Madrid.
Atletico is led by 29-year-old Spanish F Álvaro Morata with 3 goals on the season. F Antoine Griezmann is the only other player with multiple goals this season. In the 6 games, Madrid has only allowed 6 goals.
Sevilla sit 15th on the table and are coming off a draw with 6th-place Villarreal. They have a -4 goal differential through 6 games, having allowed 11 goals.
F Óliver Torres and F Carmona are the 2 main forwards on the team and have 4 of the team’s 7 goals. Sevilla was 1-0-1 against Atletico last season, but had fewer expected goals in both battles.
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Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 5:33 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Sevilla +195 (bet $100 to win $195) | Atletico Madrid +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Draw +215
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: +130 | U: -160)
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Prediction
Sevilla 1, Atletico Madrid 1
Money line (ML)
LEAN DRAW (+215).
This isn’t my favorite play of the match, but it is one I’d sprinkle on.
Sevilla is coming off a draw against the 6th-ranked Villarreal, which is ahead of Atletico in the rankings, so Sevilla can clearly compete. The home side has tied 3 of 8 matches through all competitions this season.
Atletico is just 2-1-1 on the road this season, so it hasn’t dominated opponents. Madrid only has had more than .6 expected goals in 1 of those 4 matches as well which means it hasn’t been that much better, especially on the road.
The play here is either a draw or betting on Madrid to come out on top as they are the better side. However, I’d prefer to play the total in this matchup.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 2.5 (-160).
Obviously, given the juice, this one should feel good. Atletico is the better team, finishing 3rd in the league a season ago. They have played 4 road games this season and gone under this total in 3 of the 4.
In 38 games, they only gave up 43 goals last season, and they’re back with an elite defense, only having allowed 6 goals through 6 games.
Sevilla has allowed 11. While that sounds ugly, they are 1-1 on this total at home in league play, drawing Valladolid 1-1 and losing to Barcelona 3-0.
They only have 5 shots on goal in their 2 battles with sides in the league’s top-10 clubs. Their offense may not even have the firepower to even get on the scoreboard.
Considering that mixed with Madrid’s elite defense, I’ll back the Under 2.5 (-160) here.
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