The Ottawa Senators (37-34-7) take on the Florida Panthers (40-31-7) in a clash with playoff implications Thursday at FLA Live Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Senators vs. Panthers odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Despite dropping 3 games in a row, Ottawa remains alive for a Wild Card berth. It’s unlikely as the Sens are 6 points behind the Panthers and New York Islanders for a spot. The Senators are 4-3-3 over the last 10 games. One of those was a 5-2 win over the Panthers in Ottawa.
Florida has won 4 in a row and currently holds a tiebreaker over the Islanders for the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 Wild Card. The Panthers and Isles are being pushed by the Pittsburgh Penguins, who sit 1 point back. This is an important game, and it’s one Senators LW Brady Tkachuk would love to hold over his brother LW Matthew Tkachuk of the Panthers.
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Senators at Panthers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:33 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Senators +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Panthers -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Senators +1.5 (-120) | Panthers -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Senators at Panthers projected goalies
Cam Talbot (16-14-2, 2.89 GAA, .900 SV%, 1 SO) vs. Alex Lyon (7-3-1, 3.04 GAA, .908 SV%, 1 SO)
Talbot took an ugly 4-3 OT loss at the Columbus Blue Jackets Sunday in his last start. He finished with 18 saves against 22 shots vs. Columbus after going 3-0-0 with a 2.98 GAA and .859 SV% in March.
The 30-year-old journeyman Lyon has won 4 starts in a row. He stopped 116 of 121 shots for a .959 SV% during the streak. This is the most extensive action Lyon has had in his career as this start will eclipse his previous high of 12 games played in his rookie season of 2017-18.
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Senators at Panthers picks and predictions
Prediction
Panthers 5, Senators 4
Moneyline
This is a must-win for the Panthers, and it’s hard to see them dropping it on home ice. It’s just as difficult to justify taking a -250 ML on them.
PASS.
Puck line/Against the spread
Both games between the teams this season have been decided by at least 2 goals, but I’m not confident enough in either team to distance themselves.
Instead, take a look at Florida C CARTER VERHAEGHE OVER 3.5 SHOTS ON GOAL (-145). He took 5 shots Tuesday and 8 Saturday — the Panthers’ last 2 games. He had 4 shots in the last game against Ottawa (March 27).
Over/Under
Both games between the teams this season have been like hanging out at the shooting range in one of those carts that picks up the golf balls — shots just clanking off iron right and left. Ottawa won 5-2 at home in the late March contest, while Florida claimed a 5-3 victory on its home ice in late October.
The Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 head-to-head meetings, including a push of O/U 7 in the last meeting. I’m not a fan of backing Overs of 6.5 or more — especially this late in the season. However, with the trends being where they are, and a couple of dicey goalie situations, I’ll LEAN OVER 7 (+105).
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