Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Seattle Mariners (2-1) face the Minnesota Twins (1-2) Monday for their four-game series finale at the Target Field with the first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 6-4 featuring two impressive outings from Mariners LHP Robbie Ray Friday and RHP Logan Gilbert Saturday.

However, Minnesota took the third game 10-4 Sunday thanks to a 6 home run performance from its lineup, which included a 1st inning grand slam by first-year Mariner C Gary Sanchez who joined the team following seven years with the New York Yankees.

Mariners at Twins: Projected starters

RHP Chris Flexen vs. RHP Dylan Bundy

Flexen was 14-6 in 2021 with a 3.61 ERA (179 2/3 IP, 72 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 over 31 starts.

2021 vs. Twins: 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA (13 IP, 5 ER), 12 H, 13 K and 2 BB in 2 starts.
vs. Twins on the current roster: 4.31 FIP with a .341 batting average (BA), .361 wOBA, .384 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 13.3 K% and 88.8 mph exit velocity (EV) in 45 plate appearances (PA).

Bundy was 2-9 last season with a 6.06 ERA (90 2/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 over 19 starts and 4 relief appearances with the Los Angeles Angels.

2021 vs. Mariners: 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 1 BB and 7 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance.
vs. Mariners on the current roster: 2.23 FIP with a .303 BA, .346 wOBA, .410 xSLG, 27.8 K% and 86.1 mph EV in 36 PA.

Mariners at Twins odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mariners +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-180) | Twins -1.5 (+145)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Mariners at Twins prediction and picks

Prediction

Mariners 8, Twins 4

Money line

GIMME the MARINERS (+110) for 1 unit as a fade against Bundy as the Twins’ starter. The market continues to support Bundy who was a former No. 4 overall pick in the 2011 draft and is now on his third team.

Bundy has a career 4.46 FIP and graded in the bottom-third of the MLB last season in EV, xSLG, expected wOBA, barrel rate and whiff rate, according to Statcast.

Seattle and Minnesota’s lineups are equal but the Mariners have much better bullpen pitching. Even if Flexen doesn’t give Seattle a quality start, the Mariners could still rundown the Twins.

BET the MARINERS (+110).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Flexen pitched better at home than on the road last season and gave up 5 ER over 5 IP in his one start in Minnesota.

This rules out both the pricey Mariners +1.5 (-180) and the chunky Mariners -1.5 (+170) tickets despite my predicted score.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the OVER 9.5 (-105) if at all because I’m high on both lineups entering 2022, the weather forecast is predicting nearly 14 mph winds blowing out to centerfield and the Twins are 87-69-9 O/U since the beginning of last season.

However, most of the market is backing the Over here and I hate following the herd in sports betting.

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After their original meeting was postponed Thursday due to rain, the Seattle Mariners play the Minnesota Twins for their opening games Friday. First pitch at Target Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle beat Minnesota 4-2 in last season’s series. The Mariners outscored the Twins 30-29 and won two of three games in both the home and away series.

The Mariners were a surprising story in 2021, finishing with a 90-72 record and two games back of the two American League wild-card seeds.

Conversely, the Twins had a down year last season with a 73-89 record after winning back-to-back AL Central crowns in 2019 and 2020.

Mariners at Twins: Projected starters

LHP Robbie Ray vs. RHP Joe Ryan

Ray is Seattle’s starter for their opener. He won the 2021 American League Cy Young behind a 13-7 record with an AL-leading 2.84 ERA (193 1/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 11.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 32 starts.

2021 vs. Twins: 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 6 K and 4 BB in one start.
vs. Twins on the current roster: 3.96 FIP with a .194 batting average (BA), .308 wOBA, .410 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 34.1 K% and 90.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 44 plate appearances (PA).

Ryan takes the hill for Minnesota’s home opener. He made his MLB debut Sept. 1 and finished 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 0.79 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in five starts.

Ryan is Minnesota’s sixth-ranked prospect and MLB.com’s 97th-ranked prospect.
vs. Mariners on the current roster: Never pitched against Seattle

Mariners at Twins odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:35 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mariners +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Twins -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+165) | Twins +1.5 (-205)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Mariners at Twins prediction and picks

Prediction

Mariners 6, Twins 3

Money line

BET the MARINERS (+100) because their lineup versus Minnesota’s is a wash but Seattle has a far better starter on the mound and a much more reliable bullpen.

Seattle’s bullpen was top five last season in FIP, home runs per 9 innings allowed (HR/9) and WAR, whereas Minnesota’s bullpen was 20th or worse in WAR, HR/9 and FIP. The Twins relievers were also dead-last in both hard-hit rate and EV as a unit.

Furthermore, the Twins were just 20-36 overall versus left-handed starters and 29-49 against teams with a winning record.

BET the MARINERS (+100).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Mariners -1.5 (+165) since I like them to win this game outright and Seattle should cover the RL if so.

However, I’m noticing Minnesota’s ML has been hit by sharp money so making an additional bet on the Mariners might be foolhardy.

Minnesota’s disastrous 2021 could be a blip with the Twins winning the divisions the two years prior and making some big moves this offseason including signing coveted free agent SS Carlos Correa.

I want to see what the Twins look like before I’m laying -1.5 against them in Minnesota.