Tag: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros odds predictions pick betting line spread

The Seattle Mariners (25-31) try to take the series against the Houston Astros (36-20) Wednesday in the finale of a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: The Astros lead the season series 6-5.

The teams have split the first 2 games of the series with the M’s winning 7-4 Monday and the Astros winning 4-1 Tuesday.

Astros ace Justin Verlander shut things down Tuesday with 12 Ks in 7 IP after Mariners C Cal Raleigh had a career day Monday with a home run and 4 RBI. Something has to give in this back-and-forth between bitter AL West rivals that had a little extra-curricular activity Monday when benches cleared. Could there be fireworks Wednesday?

Mariners at Astros projected starters

RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Jose Urquidy

Gilbert (5-2, 2.22 ERA) makes his 12th start in what has been a great start to his sophomore year. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 65 1/3 IP.

• Utilizes a 96-mph fastball, slider, curve and changeup. Gilbert misses barrels as he’s in the 81st percentile in barrel percentage.
• Shut down the Astros May 28 by tossing 7 scoreless innings, allowing 4 H with 5 K.
• Current Astros hitting .278 against him over 74 plate appearances. That’s a little inflated because he has had trouble with just a couple of players.

Urquidy (3-4, 4.50 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 51 IP.

• He’s 1-2 with a 5.93 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP in 6 career games (5 starts) against Seattle.
• Faced Gilbert and the Mariners May 28 and allowed 5 ER on 12 H, 2 BB and 4 K in 4 1/3 innings.
• Current Mariners have hit him at a .333 clip over 77 PA. However, there hasn’t been a lot of damage against him with 1 HR and 7 doubles.

Mariners at Astros odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:49 p.m. ET.

• Money line (ML): Mariners +120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $10)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (-175) | Astros -1.5 (-140)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Mariners at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Astros 3

Money line

The Mariners won this same pitching matchup just 11 days ago. Urquidy has allowed 3 ER or more in 4 of his last 7 starts, including one against the Mariners. The M’s are improving, led by rookie OF Julio Rodriguez, who went 3-for-5 with a double in that May 28 game. Seattle has won 6 of its last 10, and Houston isn’t the powerhouse it has been in recent years with the 21st-ranked offense. LEAN MARINERS (+120).

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Run line/Against the spread

The Mariners’ run line is too expensive at -175. So let’s look at some potential prop bets. Astros 2B Jose Altuve is 6-for-11 (.545) with 3 doubles and 1 HR against Gilbert. Astros 3B Alex Bregman is 5-for-8 (.625) with a double against him. Bregman (+112) and Altuve (-116) OVER 1.5 total bases are a couple of options either as standalone prop bets or in a parlay. I also like MARINERS FIRST 5 INNINGS (+145) with their edge on the bump.

Over/Under

The Under has cashed the last 4 times Gilbert started with an O/U over 7 runs. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the 2 teams. The May 28 game was a 6-0 nothing Under hit. It’s only a LEAN, but I prefer the UNDER 8.5 (-112).

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The Seattle Mariners (24-30) visit Minute Maid Park Monday to start a 3-game set with American League West co-tenant Houston Astros (35-19). First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle has won 3 consecutive series vs. the Astros May 27-29, at the Baltimore Orioles last week and at the Texas Rangers this past weekend. The Mariners are 6-4 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.

Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games and has won 2 straight road series at the Oakland Athletics Monday-Wednesday and at the Kansas City Royals Friday-Sunday.

Season series: The Astros lead 5-4 but the Mariners have a plus-9 in run differential in those meetings.

Mariners at Astros projected starters

LHP Robbie Ray vs. RHP Cristian Javier

Ray is 4-6 with a 4.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 65 2/3 IP over 11 starts.

• Last start: Loss, 9-2, Wednesday at the Orioles with 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 6 K.
• 2022 road splits: 2-4 with a 5.86 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.44 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 in 6 starts.

Javier is 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 41 IP across 6 starts and 4 relief appearances.

• Last start: No-decision in 3-1 win at the Athletics Tuesday with 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 4 K.
• 2022 vs. the Mariners: One start — a 4-0 home win May 3 — with 5 1/3-scoreless IP, 2 H, 2 BB and 4 K.

Mariners at Astros odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

• Money line (ML): Mariners +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Astros -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-145) | Astros -1.5 (+120)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Mariners at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Mariners 3

Money line

“Flat” BET 1 unit on the ASTROS (-180) since this is a pricey ML. But, Houston is 14-4 SU both as a home favorite and vs. left-handed starters and the Astros have edges in starting and relief pitching.

Ray is the reigning AL Cy Young winner but has regressed year over year and Javier’s basic and advanced pitching numbers are superior.

Houston’s bullpen outperforms Seattle’s in ERA (4.35-2.64), FIP (4.26-3.22), home run per 9-inning rate (1.42-0.52) and most contact rates, per FanGraphs. Seattle’s bullpen could also be taxed since the Mariners have played in four straight 1-run games

Houston’s ML has been raised 20 cents on the dollar off the opener by heavy sharp action, according to Pregame.com. This movement is significant since Mariners-Astros is a division game and Ray is Seattle’s ace while Javier is a “back-of-the-rotation” guy for Houston.

If your standard wager is $100 then BET that on the ASTROS (-180) to earn a $55.56 profit.

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN ASTROS -1.5 (+120)

Eight of their 9 meetings with the Mariners have been decided by at least 2 runs. However, Seattle is 21-14 RL as an underdog and Houston is 20-25 RL as a favorite.

There’s not a ton of value in the ASTROS -1.5 (+120) but that’s the only way to bet the RL.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-122) for 1 unit.

There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market since nearly two-thirds of the cash is on the Under whereas 70% of the action is on the Over, according to Pregame.com. Typically, it’s better to follow the money because professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe.

Minute Maid Park is also a very pitcher-friendly 26th in park factor and the Astros are 5-13 O/U as home favorites and 1-5 O/U in Javier’s 6 starts.

For what it’s worth, the UNDER 8.5 (-122) is my favorite look in this game.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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