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In a 5-round bantamweight championship bout in the co-main event, Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili meet Saturday at UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
Records: O’Malley (18-1-0) | Dvalishvili (17-4-0)
O’Malley has rolled up 6 victories and a no contest in his past 7 bouts since a stunning 1st-round KO/TKO loss to Marlon Vera at UFC 252. In the past 6 wins, 4 have come via KO/TKO while winning against Petr Yan by way of split-decision at UFC 280 and a unanimous win in a revenge fight against Vera at UFC 299. That was the 1st title defense for “Sugar,” too, after taking the strap from Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292.
Dvalishvili worked his way into title contention with 3 straight unanimous-decision victories, including against Henry Cejudo last time out at UFC 298. He has won 9 of the past 10 fights overall, with 9 of those fights going the distance. The lone exception for a KO/TKO of Marlon Moraes was at UFC 266.
O’Malley stands 5 inches taller than his Georgian counterpart, and he is 3 years younger, too. The switch-stance champ is a punching machine, posting 7.63 significant strikes landed per minute. While we usually see a lot of strikes equal lower accuracy, he has a strong 62.30% significant strikes accuracy percentage.
For Dvalishvili, he has a 68-inch reach, which is 4 inches less than O’Malley’s, so he has his work cut out. He is extremely good at takedowns, and that’s where he can wow the judges if this one goes deep into the night. He has a stunning 6.43 takedown average, although the submission average difference between the 2 fighters is rather negligible.
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UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): O’Malley -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Dvalishvili +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Over 4.5 Rounds: (Over -130 | Under +100)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -115 | No -115)
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UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
It’s hard to envision O’MALLEY (-140) not getting the job done here. The frequent guest on “Kill Tony” is just the more exciting fighter, capable of ending this thing at any time.
If Dvalishvili (+115) is to turn the tables and claim the belt, it’s going to end up going the distance as he wows the judges. O’Malley will punch his way to victory and won’t allow Dvalishvili to hang around and bore the crowd.
For method of victory, it’s a good idea to back O’MALLEY BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+125) at plus-money on the 5-way line.
Over/Under (O/U)
Looking to the round betting, NO (+125): FIGHT TO START ROUND 5 is a good bet. I don’t think O’Malley lets it get that far.
If you’d like a little more wiggle room looking for a Round 5 finish, Under 4.5 Rounds (+100) at even-money is an OK play, too. I prefer the top option, however.
In addition, NO (-115): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a good play, too.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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