In a light heavyweight bout in the main event, Thiago Santos meets Johnny Walker at UFC Fight Night 193 – also known as UFC Vegas 38 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 193: Santos vs. Walker odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 4 p.m. ET, and the main card at 7 p.m. ET.
Santos enters on a three-bout losing skid, but there is no shame in losing to Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira or Aleksandar Rakic. Two of those setbacks were by decision. His last victory came against Jan Blachowicz, a KO/TKO 39 seconds into the third round in a Fight Night main event Feb. 23, 2019.
Walker bounced back from losses to Corey Anderson and Nikita Krylov, posting a first-round KO/TKO against Ryan Spann last time out on Sept. 19, 2020. Injuries have kept him sidelined since that last outing.
Walker has a 6-inch reach advantage and 4-inch height advantage. He also has a 4.41-to-4.27 significant strikes landed per minute advantage and 1.20-to-0.09 submission average lead.
UFC Fight Night 193 Santos vs. Walker: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:37 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Santos -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Walker +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -113 | Under -120)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +300 | No -500)
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UFC Fight Night 193 Santos vs. Walker: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Santos (21-9-0) | Walker (18-5-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
WALKER (+120) is a solid underdog in his return after a year-long wait.
He stands taller and holds a huge reach advantage which will help him keep Santos at a distance. When necessary he can also take care of business on the ground, although it’s been a while since that has been needed.
Walker has had a KO/TKO end five of his six fights at the UFC level, winning four of those bouts. As such, WALKER BY TKO/KO (+180) for method of victory is also a solid play.
Over/Under (O/U)
You can’t play No (-500): Will the fight go the distance?, as that is just too expensive with very little return.
Instead, play OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-113), as we should be able to get midway through the second round before a winner is decided. However, don’t expect it to go much longer than that.
As such, play a three-round block on WALKER IN ROUND 2 (+850), WALKER IN ROUND 3 (+1500) and WALKER IN ROUND 4 (+2500). If he wins in Rounds 2-4, yes, you’ll lose two of those ends, but you’ll still be well in the black.
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