Mountain West Basketball: San Jose State vs. Northern Colorado–Preview, Odds, Prediction

 

 

The Spartans head out on the road for the first time this season, take on Bears

 

 

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Game 5: San Jose State Spartans (3-1) @ Northern Colorado (1-2)

When: Saturday, November 19th – 2:00 MT 1:00 PT

Where: Bank of Colorado Arena; Greeley, CO

How to Watch: ESPN+

Odds: Northern Colorado -3  Over/Under 143

 

There’s a quick turnaround staring at the San Jose State hoops team.  Following a hard-fought 85-76 defeat to Hofstra on Thursday night, the Spartans are off to the beautiful mountains outside of Denver to take on the Bears of Northern Colorado, in a Saturday afternoon matinee.  That doesn’t leave a lot of time for practice, preparation, and scouting of a new opponent.  Quite fine by the players, but not so much for Tim Miles and his staff. 

The Spartans should be proud of the effort against the Pride, even if they ultimately fell short.  A 10 point halftime lead slowly dissolved, and Hofstra finally grabbed their first lead with six minutes left, with SJSU in the middle of a scoring drought.  The Pride tightened up their defense, and a few extra shots fell.  They went from a 31 point first half, to a 54 point outburst in the second 20 minutes.  

There was no drop in defensive intensity for the Spartans, it was more a matter of the opponent making shots, which happens sometimes.  Especially when your coach allows you to just let it fly from all over the floor without restrictions.  Hofstra was cold early, which allowed San Jose State to build a lead, but the Pride got hot late, when it mattered most.  

As speculated in the Hofstra pregame preview, the man in the middle, Ibrahima Diallo, was unable to have the impact he did on Tuesday (when he blocked 8 shots), because of the style of play of the opposing team.  The Pride have a very low usage rate in the post, and Miles couldn’t afford to have Diallo guarding on the perimeter.  Northern Colorado starts a 7-footer, Theo Hughes, but he only averages 10 minutes per game.  His backup also gets just 10 minutes.  That means the Bears are playing smaller lineups for about half of the game.  Steve Smiley, head man at UNC, is a young up-and-comer in the profession.  Let’s see if he goes small for longer stretches, to minimize the impact of the Spartans big junior center.

Smiley is more of an offensive mind at this stage, and his Bears were extremely efficient on that end a year ago.  It helps to have Daylen Kountz in your lineup for starters.  The transfer from Colorado averaged 21 points a game last year, may go higher than that this season, and is the preseason player of the year in the Big Sky.  The second banana is senior Matt Johnson, who has averaged 13 ppg in each of the last two years.  That experienced backcourt will lead the way, and hope to get contributions from an unproven frontcourt.  Dalton Knecht is the only other returner to average more than 10 minutes a game in 2021-22, at UNC or anywhere else, and he will play mostly on the wing in Smiley’s 3 or 4 guard lineups.  Up front, while size has been added, it does not appear they have Smiley’s full confidence yet, as he has really only used a 7 man rotation through the Bears first three games.

Let’s talk about those first three Northern Colorado games.  If we thought Hofstra had challenged themselves to open the season, the Bears would like to have a chat.  Sandwiched around a home opener against Texas A&M Commerce, they decided to make two separate trips to the Lone Star state – to take on Houston and Baylor!  That’s right, two of the top five teams in the country, on their home floors.  Predictably the games were not competitive, 47 and 33 point drubbings respectively.  But the experience of being on the same floor and battling with those titans of the sport, is invaluable.  It’s why batters in the on-deck circle swing bats with weights around the barrel, to make it easier when it’s go time.  Go time for UNC will be conference play, but there’s no way around it; those games will benefit the Bears from this point on.  

It’s therefore difficult to make much of the stat lines for Northern Colorado because they are massively skewed.  Instead, for the Spartans, they can continue trying to mold into the team that coach Miles wants to see on both ends of the floor.  For the most part, the offense has been fairly fluid, and a lot of that is owed to point guard Alvaro Cardenas.  The sophomore looks more comfortable each time out, and is coming off a 17 point effort on Thursday night.  He added five assists, and as has been the norm, played a great floor game.  SJSU also got productive minutes from Tibet Gorener off the bench.  Gorener was pressed into starting duty much of last year due to injuries, but seems perfectly placed as a sixth man type of sniper off the bench.  He nailed 5 threes and seemed to single handedly bring Speedy Claxton out of the zone defense he was employing to start the game.  As efficient offensively as UNC was a year ago, they were almost equally as inefficient defensively.  While Smiley has made it a point of emphasis to be more engaged on that end, that type of change doesn’t happen overnight.  The Spartans will need to attack the soft spots of the Bears defense, and may have the personnel to do it.  

The foul line was a problem area again on Thursday.  Two nights after shooting 13-26 from the line, the Spartans only took 5 free throws the entire game.  A couple of things stick out here; first Hofstra plays at a high pace, more possessions should equal more fouls.  Also, San Jose State enjoyed a big size advantage, even without Diallo on the floor.  To only attempt 5 foul shots shows a lack of aggressiveness, and too much settling for jump shots.  

As for the situational breakdown of the game, let’s just say it does not favor the Spartans – in any regard.  To begin with, this will be their third game in five days, not super common in college basketball, it’s usually 2 games per week.  Yes, the popular multi-team events, like the one SJSU will travel to next weekend give you 3 games in a short span of time, but everyone there is in the same boat.  Not the case here, as UNC last played on Monday, giving them four and a half days of rest.  The Spartans have played 2 games since the Bears last took the floor.  Also, this will be San Jose State’s first road game of the year.  That is always a problem for any team, regardless of the quality of your program.  There is the elevation factor too.  Greeley may not be Laramie, Wyoming, with its 7,200 ft, but it is near 5,000, enough to have an impact on any visiting team.  That will be more in focus for a SJSU team playing less than 48 from their prior game.  Lastly, these two met a year ago in San Jose, a 75-74 Spartan win.  There is no rivalry here, so revenge seems like too strong a word, but a little payback would do just fine for the Bears.  Not that motivation is needed, UNC just wants to return to normal competition after lining up against Baylor and Houston.  San Jose State could really make a statement about what type of team they are with a win.  Not that the Bears are one of the better teams they will face this year, it’s simply the fact that there are too many intangibles working against them in this one.  And that’s why it says here, the Spartans come up short in their first road trip of the year.

 

Prediction: Northern Colorado 82  San Jose State 72     

 

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Mountain West Basketball: Hofstra vs. San Jose State–Preview, Odds, Prediction

 

 

Spartans, Pride battle in matchup of 3-0 teams

 

 

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Game 4: Hofstra Pride (3-0) @ San Jose State Spartans (3-0)

When: Thursday, November 17th – 7:00 PT

Where: Provident Credit Union Event Center; San Jose, CA

How to Watch: NBC Sports Bay Area, Livestream on Mountain West Network

Odds: Hofstra – 3  Over/Under 142.5

 

After another matter-of-fact performance on Tuesday night, the San Jose State hoops team is back at it Thursday, completing a season-opening four game homestand.  They welcome Hofstra to town and will look to cool off the red-hot Pride.  

Both teams enter with records of 3-0, but not all records are created equally.  To say the Spartans have not been tested thus far would be an understatement.  According to KenPom’s numbers, they have played the 349th ranked schedule out of 363 Division I schools.  While many teams play DII programs early on, they will often follow that with a much more challenging game.  Tim Miles has instead chosen to ease into this season with three lesser talented opponents, all at home.  This is not a knock on Miles; coaches have reasons for their scheduling strategies, and Miles has opted to build some confidence in his guys by seeing positive results on the court.  Tuesday night will definitely be a step up in class, however.

Hofstra on the other hand, has played three quality opponents, and all three games went down to the wire.  There is no big fish that the Pride caught, just solid teams that prepare you for the meat of your schedule.  And in taking down Princeton, Iona, and George Washington, by 6, 5, and 5 respectively, Hofstra has become battle tested, before the season is even two weeks old.  They also have already played a road game (Princeton), and have a quality win against Iona, coached by none other than Rick Pitino.  It’s the ideal start under second year coach Speedy Claxton.

Claxton is a former star for the Pride in the late 90’s, where he played for recently retired Hall of Famer Jay Wright.  His preferred style of play is up-tempo and his guys are averaging 84 points a game and rank highly in offensive efficiency stats to date.  They also love to let the 3-ball fly, and have connected on a remarkable 14 3’s in back to back games, while shooting above a 50% clip.  Doing the math, that tells us that exactly half of Hofstra’s points in their last two games have come from behind the arc.  Regression will occur at some point, but the Spartans may not want to roll the dice that it starts on Thursday, and better focus on perimeter defense.  

Who is doing the damage for the Pride?  Well let’s start with returning CAA player of the year–Aaron Estrada.  The 6’3” senior is coming off a 33 point outing in the win over GW on Monday.  Estrada is known for his mid-range game, a lost art in today’s style of basketball, but against the Colonials he backed it up a few feet and knocked down 6 triples.  He is not just a scorer either, as he averaged over 5 rebounds and 5 assists per game last year, one of only three players in the country to have an 18/5/5 line in 2021-22.  Estrada has help from two other main sources – one returnee, and one newcomer.  Darlinstone Dubar was a double-figure scorer for Hofstra a year ago and was expected to be the second banana, and he has looked the part through three games, averaging 15 per.  Transfer Tyler Thomas rounds out this explosive trio, chipping in 16 a game in the early going.  That’s a very high 55 points per game between the three of them.  If the Spartans can hold two of these three below their averages, they will have a great chance to pull the minor upset.

For as much as Hofstra stresses tempo, and pushes the ball in transition, they have been outstanding at protecting the rock, with only 26 turnovers total on the season, less than 9 per game.  Don’t expect a lot in this tilt either, as the Spartans are not forcing many, and it’s not really the preferred defensive mantra of Miles.

As for that D of SJSU, they have been up to the task, although again, the numbers are skewed because of the lesser competition played.  Still, it’s a positive sign to see great effort exerted on that end, when that may not have always been the case a year ago.  It obviously helps to have a 7-footer patrolling the paint, and Ibrahima Diallo has been the definition of a rim protector.  He blocked 8 shots in the Tuesday win against Alabama State, and while that is a remarkable number, more impressive is the fact that he wasn’t ‘chasing’ blocks.  No recklessly falling for pump-fakes, or leaving his man to come flying over and get out of position while hunting for another block.  It was just really good, fundamental big-man defense, and the staff should be both commended and encouraged.  The box score does show 4 personal fouls on the big man, but 3 of those were committed on the offensive end.  Keeping Diallo on the floor will be instrumental to the Spartans success this season.  

Another surprise development to start the year, has been the play of point guard Alvaro Cardenas.  The sophomore guard from Spain compiled modest numbers as a freshman, but looks poised to make a second year leap.  He is averaging almost 12 ppg, and has an 11/2 assist to turnover split.  Beyond that, he is running the offense beautifully, getting the ball where it needs to go and when it need to get there, isn’t forcing shots, and seems to be turning into a coach on the floor; exactly what you want out of your point guard.  

Let’s look at a couple areas of concern for SJSU, starting with Omari Moore.  On the surface, Moore’s stat line appears top notch – 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists per game.  He has also been very active defensively, and has been able to get a bucket attacking the rim almost anytime he wants one.  The problem is, Moore has chosen to settle for far too many jump shots, mainly from 3-point land, and has struggled mightily.  He went 1-7 on Tuesday and is now 2-15 on the year, a frigid 13%.  The confusing part is, Moore shot over 40% a year ago from downtown.  Until he finds his stroke during this campaign though, it may be best to scale back on the number of jump shots attempted.  Definitely something to keep an eye on.  

Also, a major source of frustration against Alabama State was the foul line; 13-26 for an even 50%, a good percentage from the field, not so much from the charity stripe.  At 59% for the season, that’s too many free points left out there, and that will come back to haunt the Spartans in close games if it’s not improved.    

Fascinating tactical matchup here between Miles and Claxton.  It’s very likely Diallo will not have the impact he did the other night because Hofstra doesn’t use the paint much.  That takes away an advantage the Spartans would enjoy.  They should, though, be able to own the glass on both ends, and that should provide some easy second chance buckets.  The Pride have been super efficient offensively so far, and while that will be tested, they are too experienced and talented in the backcourt to be completely shut down.  San Jose State will have some advantages offensively as well, in addition to on the boards.  Moore will be a tough cover for the Hofstra wings, and Cardenas is playing with extreme confidence at the moment.  

There is one other angle that must be mentioned.  Hofstra is flying out to California for a two-game set, with SJSU first on the docket.  Up next on Saturday?  That would be St. Mary’s.  The Gaels, currently ranked in the top 25, are the much sexier opponent for the Pride, and it is entirely possible they have half an eye ahead toward that matchup, as it’s only human nature.  What does it all mean?  The hunch here is that both teams will get their share of points, and we get a nail-biter.  Hopefully we read this one wrong, but it says here the combination of close-game experience and tougher competition pays dividends for the Pride, and they hand the Spartans their first loss of the year.

 

Prediction: Hofstra 77  San Jose State 71

     

 

 

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Mountain West Basketball: Alabama State vs. San Jose State–Preview, Odds, Prediction 

 

 

Spartans aim for 3-0, host Hornets

 

 

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Game 3: Alabama State Hornets (0-3) @ San Jose State Spartans (2-0)

When: Tuesday, November 15th – 7:00 PT

Where: Provident Credit Union Event Center; San Jose, CA

How to Watch: Livestream on Mountain West Network

Odds: San Jose State -15.5  Over/Under 140

 

 

 

With the opening of the 2022-23 season in the books, the San Jose State men’s basketball team begins a grueling three game week on Tuesday night against Alabama State.  The Spartans did what they needed to do, start the season with two wins, and now have a chance to continue building momentum in the non-conference portion of their schedule.  

Head coach Tim Miles had to like what he saw in the season opener, a 63-48 win over Georgia Southern, in a game that was never in doubt.  The defense, often a liability a year ago, was much more engaged, and bothered the Eagles into 27% shooting.  GSU is far from an offensive juggernaut, but if that kind of effort on the defensive end can be sustained on a regular basis, the Spartans will find themselves much more competitive down the stretch of ball games, even in the MWC – quite the contrast from last season.      

SJSU followed that up with a workmanlike 90-68 defeat of DII Bethesda.  Miles seemed to treat that outing as a glorified exhibition, as he used 15 different Spartans, and none for more than 23 minutes.  He used only 9 in the Georgia Southern win.  As such, his troops should be fully charged up and ready to go on Tuesday night with a great opportunity to get to 3-0.  

What else are the Spartans doing well?  Let’s start with balance on the offensive end.  Omari Moore garnered preseason all-Mountain West Conference accolades and rightfully so.  And while he is the only player to score in double figures in both games, they were with modest totals of 14 and 12.  More importantly, four others have had games scoring either 13 or 14.  Developing different options if Moore is having an off night is vital to the Spartans success.  

Some other positive numbers from the stat sheets thus far include assisting on over half of all made field goals (32 out of 62), and grabbing 28 offensive rebounds.  Granted, those numbers are inflated from the outing against a Division II program, but it shows those are areas of emphasis for Miles and his staff.  

As for the flip side of the coin, the Spartans have been wretched from deep, connecting on just 26% of their attempted 3-pointers.  Again, the sample size is minimal, but that is a number that needs to go up.  There is only one other team statistic ranked near the bottom, and that is free throw attempts, signaling a need to be a bit more aggressive on offense.  Tuesday night’s game should provide a great opportunity for San Jose State to improve on all of those offensive numbers, when taking a look at the opponent.  

Alabama State is at best a middle of the pack team in the SWAC, historically one of the worst conferences in Division I.  As many programs in their league do, the Hornets help fund their program by playing road game after road game in the non-con, and they are finishing up an early season three game tour of California.  They started in Los Angeles against USC, moved across the coast to Malibu to take on Pepperdine, and now head north for the matchup with San Jose State.  The problem for ASU is that they left their defense back home in Montgomery.  They have surrendered 96 and 91 in their first two games out west, and when adding in the 111 UAB scored against them in their season opener, the Hornets are giving up a cool 99 ppg.  

Tony Madlock, first year coach of Alabama State prefers playing at a fast pace, which of course leads to more possessions.  The problem is, when you’re severely outmanned in the talent department, you don’t really want more possessions.  The Hornets have allowed at least 44 points in each of their six halves of play so far this year.  

What sort of problems might ASU present?  For one, they have an electric offensive performer in TJ Madlock, the coach’s son.  The preseason SWAC newcomer of the year can flat out score the ball in a variety of ways and will need to do so efficiently for the Hornets to reach their ceiling.  He will also need to find a running mate, and Duane Posey appears to be applying for the job.  The 6’7” Junior wing came off the bench in the first two games, but earned a start on Sunday and is averaging 9 points per game.  

One thing the elder Madlock stresses more than anything, is how hard his guys play, and if there is one statistic that exemplifies hustle, it is offensive rebounding.  The Hornets have a remarkable total of 45 offensive boards through three games.  Part of that can be chalked up to the fact that they shoot a poor percentage and therefore there are many misses to be had.  However, for being drubbed three times, and outsized in each game, those are impressive numbers.  If nothing else, the Spartans better be ready for the effort of Alabama State on the glass. 

The problem for Madlock and his troops is that effort might wane after halftime.  The Hornets are likely to be leg weary playing their second game in 3 nights, and third game since Thursday.  That theory goes out the window of course, if they find themselves in a dogfight with 12 minutes left, but this is where Miles was deft in limiting the starters minutes on Saturday.  The Spartans should have a bit extra juice if needed down the stretch.  Ideally for Miles, his squad can build a comfortable lead and he can save some legs for what shape up as more challenging Thursday and Saturday games.  But first things first. 

How is this one going to play out?  It should be a secure win for SJSU.  They have several players they can rotate onto Madlock, including an emerging lockdown defender in Sage Tolbert.  They also have a rim protector in Ibrahima Diallo, who will have a massive size advantage.  Point guard Alvaro Cardenas has played two good floor games, scoring the ball well against GSU and dishing out 7 assists versus Bethesda.  Against a struggling defense (and that’s being kind), he could fill whichever role he wants in this one.  While the Spartans are not the type of team to throw up a 90-spot, they should find the waters smooth enough to sail to an easy win and a 3-0 start.  

 

 

Prediction: San Jose State 80  Alabama State 63 

 

 

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Georgia Southern vs. San Jose State: Game Preview, Odds, How To Watch, Prediction

 

 

Spartans look to start the season with a win in a toss-up game

 

 

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Game 1: Georgia Southern Eagles (0-0) @ San Jose State Spartans (0-0)

When: Tuesday, November 8th – 7:00 PT

Where: Provident Credit Union Event Center; San Jose, CA

How to Watch: Livestream on Mountain West Network

Odds: San Jose State -3.5  Over/Under 135

 

It’s hoops time.  While most Division I programs played their official season openers on Monday, the San Jose State men’s team is waiting an extra 24 hours.  They will kick-off their 2022-23 season at home Tuesday night against Georgia Southern.  The Spartans went 8-23 a year ago, and will look for marked improvement under second year coach Tim Miles.  

A positive start to the Miles era, 7-5 in the non-conference portion of the schedule, quickly went off the rails for two reasons.  One, the Mountain West Conference was really, really good; and two, injuries exposed the lack of depth on the roster.  Nothing has changed on the first front, the Spartans league schedule will be problematic.  But the second, for now at least, seems to be much improved as we enter a new campaign. 

The Spartans add two transfers, which is actually a low number compared to most other D1 teams.  Four freshmen also enter the program with varying levels of skill and expectation.  The main reason for optimism though, is the fact that SJSU returns its top 5 players from last year.  That is a rarity in today’s college basketball climate.  The counter point would be to ask, do you really want your 5 most important players back from a team that went 8-23?  Fair question; but the returning cohesiveness is a plus, and having a healthy Ibrahima Diallo back is huge–literally.  The 7-footer missed virtually the entire conference portion of the schedule a year ago, and the Spartans were a different team without him on the floor.

Diallo may not be a number one option offensively, but he is the rim protector that every team values, and he vacuums up rebounds on both ends of the floor.  As for the scoring load, that will be left up to returning all-conference performer Omari Moore.  Moore flirted with the NBA, but decided to come back and fine-tune his game, excellent news for the Spartans.  This may be a team though, that hitches its wagon to its defense–much like their opening night opponent.  

Georgia Southern was a bottom half team in the Sun Belt last year, and they are picked down there again this season.  As a matter of fact, the Spartans might see a lot of similarities between themselves and the Eagles, since they also return much of their nucleus from 2021-22.  Head Coach Brian Burg prefers a deliberate half-court approach offensively.  They struggled shooting the ball from deep a year ago, and were often bitten by the turnover bug.  The reinforcements brought in may help, but none stand out as absolute bucket getters.    

The Eagles are very good at taking teams out of transition and making them play offense in the half-court, against their stifling man-to-man defense.  That should not hamper San Jose State too much, as they don’t usually use transition offense as much of a weapon.  One issue for tonight though, is that Georgia Southern possesses multiple outstanding individual defenders, and they will be tasked with putting the clamps on Moore.  If they succeed in making things tough on the Spartans 6’6” facilitator, tonight could be a long night for SJSU. 

One additional area the Eagles struggled in last year is on the glass.  They rebounded poorly due to a lack of size and physicality.  Their roster has one player taller than 6’8” and he averaged a meager 9 minutes a game a year ago.  They did not bring in a lot of reinforcements either.  This is a thin position group, and something the Spartans may be able to exploit.  Because Georgia Southern did not play an exhibition game, contrary to most teams, SJSU is coming into this one a little blind on the personnel and lineups Burg will use.  That may be a slight advantage to the Eagles.

Speaking of exhibitions, the Spartans had one over the weekend, and it was probably a bit closer than they expected.  San Jose State squeaked by Division II Cal State LA 69-66.  One is never sure how much, or what, to read into those, as all coaches handle them differently.  Miles for example, used 12 different players in the game, something unlikely to happen tonight.  The Golden Eagles did hit 11-19 from 3-point land, which was a big reason they took the game down to the wire.  That perimeter defense will need to be sharper moving forward for the Spartans to show tangible progress in the win-loss column.  

One thing SJSU did really well Friday night was rebound the ball, sporting a 45-17 edge.  Don’t expect a disparity that wide tonight, but grabbing multiple offensive rebounds could help a team searching for additional scoring to go along with Moore.  Who will that sidekick be?  It could be Sage Tolbert, the transfer from Temple, who scored 11 points and had 11 rebounds in the exhibition win.  Or it could be Tibet Gorener, the former Arizona recruit, who looked good on Friday night.  It could also be a late-bloomer like MJ Amey was fantastic towards the end of the season a year ago.  The hope is that multiple players see a bump in production, and as a result the group as a whole does too.

What should we expect on opening night?  Possibly some early jitters for both teams, and especially so for Georgia Southern as they work through the kinks that often would be worked out in an exhibition game.  They also are traveling across the country for this one, while San Jose State enjoys the home-court advantage.  Expect Miles to emphasize perimeter defense after the poor showing the other night, and with both teams content to be patient offensively, this one is likely not headed for a shootout, but rather a rock fight.  Moore may not explode for a 25 point effort against this defense like he may against some other non-conference opponents either.  It says here, Diallo and his friends up front collect enough second chance points and the Spartans escape with a season-opening home win.    

 

Prediction: San Jose State 59  Georgia Southern 58

 

 

 

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San Jose State Non-Conference Schedule Preview 

 

 

Spartans look to improve on 8-23 record from a year ago

 

 

Contact/Follow on Twitter  @coachmosser & @MWCwire

 

 

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It’s year two of the Tim Miles regime at San Jose State, and the Spartans will look to improve on an 8-23 tally in his first go-round.  The season started off fairly well, as SJSU went 7-5 in the non-conference portion of their schedule.  Unfortunately, injuries and lack of depth on the roster sent them off the rails during January and February, as they finished 1-17 in a very tough Mountain West Conference.  

The Spartans and their fans will hope this season plays out similarly to Miles’ second season at his prior stop of Nebraska, when he led the Huskers to a 4th place finish in the Big Ten and an NCAA Tournament berth.  While that may be a bit ambitious, the roster seems improved, and if they stay healthy, it’s certainly possible San Jose State can climb out of the cellar.  

Virtually all preseason publications and MWC polls have the Spartans interchangeable with Air Force in spots 10 and 11 of the league pecking order.  KenPom’s website and ratings, used by most as an unofficial ranking of every school in the country based on efficiency, have them neck and neck as well, literally right next to each other at 235 and 236 (out of 363 Division I teams).  It will be important for San Jose State to try and build confidence and momentum during November and December, before the grind of a very competitive conference schedule begins around the holidays.  

Below is a look at each non-conference matchup with a focus on the strengths and weaknesses of the opponent, key personnel, and a brief insight of what to expect.  The Spartans will play 13 games in all, including a 3 game MTE (Multi-Team Event).  Listed next to the opponent in parentheses is that team’s preseason KenPom rank.  

 

#1. Tuesday, November 8th vs. Georgia Southern (221) – San Jose, CA; Provident Credit Union Event Center

The Spartans will open their 2022-23 campaign against a Georgia Southern team picked in the bottom half of the Sun Belt.  They are coming off a 13-16 season with a 5-11 league record.  The Eagles do return a lot of pieces, but that’s not always a good thing.  Lately they have been a very slow paced, deliberate team offensively.  Last year they struggled shooting the ball and turned it over at a high rate.  They have been effective defensively by slowing teams down and making them play in the half court.  There is a lack of size though that leads to poor rebounding numbers.  Facing a team flying across the country, this is an opener SJSU needs to get.

 

#2.  Saturday, November 12th vs. Bethesda (N/A) – San Jose, CA; Provident Credit Union Event Center

Frankly, the less said about this one the better.  Bethesda is a member of the NCCAA.  That’s the National Christian College Athletic Association for those of you not already keeping score at home.  These two played last year, and it was a 118-43 Spartan victory.  Expect something similar here, and a chance for Miles to tinker with player rotations and schemes.  

 

#3.  Tuesday, November 15th vs. Alabama State (344) – San Jose, CA; Provident Credit Union Event Center

Next to come to town will be Alabama State.  The Hornets are picked in the middle of the pack in a bad SWAC.  Long time D1 assistant Tony Madlock takes over for former NBA star Mo Williams as head coach.  Madlock finally got his chance at South Carolina State last year after 26 years as an aide.  His first team slightly outperformed expectations for two reasons.  One, his focus on playing fast and playing hard, and two, the talent of his son TJ Madlock.  TJ transferred to ASU to play for his father, and will be one of the most talented players in the conference.  Unfortunately, the rest of the roster will struggle to keep up, as the Hornets went 10-21 and 8-10 a year ago.  If the Spartans are not ready to go from the tip-off, this could be interesting for awhile, but ultimately the more talented team should be able to hold on for the win.  

 

#4.  Thursday, November 17th vs. Hofstra (144) – San Jose, CA; Provident Credit Union Event Center

The fourth of four home games to start the season will see SJSU entertain Hofstra.  The Pride, under former standout Speedy Claxton, are picked second in the CAA and possess the returning conference player of the year, in Aaron Estrada.  The do-it-all point guard put together an incredible stat line a year ago – 18.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 5.0 apg.  The Robin to Estrada’s Batman is breakout candidate Darlinstone Dubar, who should also be on the all-name team.  Dubar averaged 11.7 ppg last year and is a massive frontcourt presence for an undersized team.  The Pride are coming off a successful 21-11 season and went 13-5 in league play.  They like to play up-tempo, as a team coached by a man named Speedy should be obligated to do.  The 3-point shot is a big weapon in their arsenal, but they must replace their top two shooters from a year ago.  They are also breaking in many new faces, which could take a few weeks to do.  Lastly, the Spartans may catch the Pride looking ahead to a more flashy matchup two days later at St. Mary’s against the Gaels.  On paper, this is one where Hofstra will likely be favored.  It’s also a great spot for San Jose State to catch a team in transition and grab a key early season win.      

  

#5.  Saturday, November 19th @ Northern Colorado (182) – Greeley, CO; Bank of Colorado Arena

The Spartans will have a quick turnaround for their first road contest of the season, heading to Northern Colorado for what will be their third game in five days.  The Bears sported a solid 22-16, 13-7 record in 2021-22.  One of those losses was a 75-74 early season defeat to San Jose State, so UNC will want a little payback.  Head Coach Steve Smiley is well-respected as an offensive minded coach, and they were very efficient on that end of the floor a year ago.  The same cannot be said for the defense, however, and that was a point of emphasis for Smiley this offseason.  The Bears do have Daylen Kountz at their disposal, the preseason player of the year in the Big Sky, and a threat to lead the nation in scoring this year.  The logistics here do not set up for a peak SJSU effort, most of which were already mentioned.  First game away from home, 3rd game of the week, UNC will have been off since Tuesday, and have a minor revenge angle.  Add in the elevation factor playing in Colorado and this screams flat spot for the Spartans.  

 

#6.  Friday, November 25th vs. North Texas (67) – Nassau, Bahamas; Baha Mar Convention, Arts & Entertainment Center 

The Thanksgiving Holiday weekend will take the San Jose State program to the Bahamas for an 8 team MTE, guaranteeing the Spartans three games.  Unfortunately their opener of the event comes against the best team in the field – North Texas.  The Mean Green have been one of the best mid-majors in the entire country the last few years under rising star Grant McCasland.  They own an NCAA Tournament win as a #13 seed, defeating #4 seed Purdue two years ago, and narrowly missed the field last season with a 25-7 record.  They can win with either a defense-first mantra, or by simply out scoring you.  This will be far and away the best team the Spartans have played to this point, and Miles will hope to see a good effort for 40 minutes even if that may not be reflected in the final score.   

 

#7 & 8.  Saturday and Sunday, November 26th and 27th vs. TBD – Nassau, Bahamas; Baha Mar Convention, Arts & Entertainment Center 

The second and third opponents will not be determined until the other games in the bracket take place.  SJSU will play either Oakland (225) out of the Horizon League, or Long Beach State (158) from the Big West in round two on Saturday.    

Sunday’s third and final matchup will come against one of the four teams from the other side of the bracket.  They include – Ball State (230), Vermont (100), Missouri State (134), and UNC Wilmington (204).

There are far too many possibilities and permutations for the final two games to cover each one, but the odds say a 1-1 split is the most likely result, following the opening round defeat.

 

#9.  Saturday, December 3rd @ Arkansas (14) – Fayetteville, AR;  Bud Walton Arena 

Hopefully the Spartans and their families enjoy the weekend trip to the Bahamas, because the first destination upon returning to the mainland will be no picnic.  Reason being, SJSU will enter SEC country and fabled Bud Walton Arena to take on a consensus top 20 team in Arkansas.  Bay Area hoop fans should be familiar with their head coach, former Golden State Warriors boss Eric Musselman, who has taken the Razorbacks to back-to-back Elite Eights, including the monumental upset of #1 Gonzaga last March.  Although the Hogs lose much of their roster from last year’s 29-9 team, they bring in two possible one-and-done NBA talents, in Nick Smith and Anthony Black.  This has the makings of a long night.   

 

#10.  Tuesday, December 6th vs. Cal St. Bakersfield (265) – San Jose, CA; Provident Credit Union Event Center

After a significant amount of travel and a few games against top-shelf competition, it will be nice for the Spartans to return home, and do so against a favorable opponent to boot.  Cal St. Bakersfield is in the middle of a massive rebuild under veteran coach Rod Barnes.  Coming off an 8-19 campaign, the Roadrunners, beep beep, are picked to finish at the bottom of the Big West again.  Their main struggles come on offense, where they had problems consistently scoring in the half-court.  Barnes wants to try and push the ball in transition to see if it will lead to some easy buckets.  They were better defensively, but still not great, as they were poor defending the 3-point line, and lacked physicality.  Add it up and this should be a positive return home.  

  

#11.  Saturday, December 10th @ Santa Clara (111) – Santa Clara, CA; Leavey Center

The first of two games against WCC foes comes next, when San Jose State makes the short trek to neighboring Santa Clara.  The two met last year, in one of the Spartans most disappointing non-conference efforts, a 79-57 home loss.  The Broncos were 21-12 a year ago, but lost two stars to the pro ranks.  They do return all West Coast Conference playmaker/scorer Keshawn Justice and with the ever-consistent Herb Sendek at the helm, they will always be competitive in the top heavy WCC.  They may not quite have the firepower to replicate last season’s success though.  As a result, this is a game SJSU can certainly hang around in, and may have a chance late to steal a huge road win.  

 

#12.  Saturday, December 17th @ Pacific (251) – Stockton, CA; Alex G. Spanos Center

After a week of final exams, the Spartans will make one more road trip in the non-con, an 80 mile journey north to Stockton to take on Pacific.  This is another return game from 2021-22, with SJSU coming out on the right side of a 78-66 decision 12 months ago.  The Tigers struggled to an 8-22 record last season, and coach Leonard Perry is planning a long rebuild.  Pacific lacks star power, but that is how Perry likes it, stressing his team-first concept and utilizing a deep bench.  The Tigers play extremely hard, highlighted by a very high rebounding rate, likely because there are other options for Perry if someone decides to coast for a night.  San Jose State could easily find themselves in a dog fight for 40 minutes in this one.       

 

#13.  Tuesday, December 20th vs. Cal Poly (249) – San Jose, CA; Provident Credit Union Event Center

The Spartans 13th and final game before conference play starts, is a matchup against Cal Poly out of the Big West.  The Mustangs are coming off a 7-21 season, but head coach John Smith believes he has the pieces in place to start climbing the standings.  The 4th year boss finally has players to fit his system and likes the culture of his group.  There is a nice mix of returners and newcomers, ready to embrace a pace and space, rim-attacking style.  At this point in the schedule, teams are past the ‘getting to know each other stage’, and if Smith is correct in the feeling he has about his unit, this is another game that will go down to the wire.  

 

Outlook:

The schedule sets up pretty well for Miles and his charges, with some very winnable games in the first two weeks.  It obviously stiffens up with the trips to the Bahamas and Arkansas, but those experiences may prove valuable later on in the season.  The last four games will really tell us a lot about the gains Miles and the program has made.  There is as good a chance that SJSU goes 3-1 in this closing stretch as that it goes 1-3.  If the former happens, entering conference play on a high and sitting at 8-5 or maybe even 9-4 will be a huge confidence boost.  On the flip side, a few additional losses and a near .500 record going into the holidays could derail any hopes for the tangible progress Miles and his roster are counting on.  

 

 

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