The No. 7 Murray State Racers (30-2) meet the No. 10 San Francisco Dons (24-9) Thursday in the first round of the East Region. Tip from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the San Francisco vs. Murray State odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Murray State solidifed its tournament credentials with a 71-67 win in the Ohio Valley Conference championship over Morehead State. The Racers have just 2 losses on the season, one to Auburn and the other to ETSU.
They haven’t lost since Dec. 22 (71-58 to Auburn). Murray State ranks 23rd in points per game (79.3) and allows the 21st-fewest per game (61.7). It’s led by F K.J. Williams and G Tevin Brown who average 18.2 and 16.4 points per game respectively.
The Dons enter thegame after losing 81-71 to No. 1 seed Gonzaga in the West Coast Tournament semifinal. San Francisco did cover as 14.5-point favorites, but are just 13-18-1 against the spread (ATS).
The Dons rank 39th in points per game (77.3) and rank top 45 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Six-foot-2 G Jamaree Bouyea leads the team in scoring at 16.7 points per game.
San Francisco vs. Murray State odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 1:04 p.m. ET.
- Money line: San Francisco +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Murray State -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): San Francisco +1.5 (-110) | Murray State -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 137.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
[tipico]
San Francisco vs. Murray State odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
San Francisco 72, Murray State 70
Money line
LEAN to SAN FRANCISCO +115.
With money coming on Murray State, this line has moved from its original open at -1 San Francisco which is allowing for some great value on the money line.
San Fran is also an experienced group with its top scorers being upperclassmen. Its top 3 scorers are seniors.
Murray State’s leading scorer stands 6-foot-10, but aside from him, it doesn’t have a top-four scoring option that stands over 6-foot-5.
San Francisco starts 6-foot-10 F Yauhen Massalski, who will be able to counter that size, and have 3 players over 6-foot-7 who get consistent minutes off the bench.
The size advantage and experience advantage will both be in favor of San Francisco.
Against the spread
PASS.
This should be a hard-fought battle, and I would prefer the plus-money money line odds.
Over/Under
BET on the OVER 137.5 (-110).
While I like the money line value on San Francisco, betting the Over here is my favorite play.
Murray State isn’t as experienced, but it is far from inexperienced and is led in scoring by 2 juniors. Having experience should help both teams stick to their style of play.
Both teams rank in Kenpom’s top 45 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Both teams have topped 70 points in 4 straight games. It seems likely this battle should be played in that range.
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