The San Francisco Giants went 81-81 last season and missed the postseason for the 5th time in the last 6 years.
The Giants won the World Series 3 times in 5 seasons between 2010-14, but they have just 1 Wild-Card victory in the previous 8 seasons. The winning ways have significantly dried up in the Bay Area and it’s now a Los Angeles Dodgers thing, and soon, a San Diego Padres thing, leaving the Giants fighting for scraps in the NL West. The Padres are no longer content just making the playoffs, they want to win the whole ball of wax.
Let’s analyze the San Francisco Giants’ World Series odds, along with their projected win total, playoff, division and NL odds as we make our expert MLB picks and predictions.
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San Francisco Giants World Series odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, March 24, at 5:26 p.m. ET.
Odds: +3000 (bet $100 to win $3,000)
San Francisco is tied with 5 teams for the 7th-shortest odds to win it all. The Houston Astros (+600) are the favorites, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers (+700), New York Mets (+700) and New York Yankees (+750).
At +3000, San Francisco has an implied probability of winning the World Series of 3.23% or 30/1 fractional odds.
The Oakland A’s have the longest odds at +40000 with the Washington Nationals next at +30000.
The Giants signed OF Michael Conforto to a 2-year, $36-million contract, looking to keep up with the NL West Joneses. OF Mitch Haniger was also signed to a 3-year, $43.5-million deal, shoring up the team’s corner outfield spots. With OF/DH Joc Pederson, and OF Mike Yastrzemski, the team has some decent pop.
However, is it enough to compete with the likes of the Atlanta Braves, Dodgers, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals and Padres? It looks doubtful.
This was a .500 team last season, and they definitely made some nice additions to the lineup. The rotation consists of RHPs Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani, Ross Stripling and Logan Webb, as well as LHP Alex Wood, with some depth pieces in RHP Jakob Junis and LHP Sean Manaea. It’s improvement, but it’s not nearly enough.
The Giants aren’t on par with the likes of the defending champ Houston Astros, division rival or the New York clubs. Unlike teams like the Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers who have clearer paths to the playoffs, the Giants have to contend with the arms race in the NL West, and they’re like Brazil or Spain compared to the United States and China. Adequate, but not a superpower.
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San Francisco Giants playoff odds
Will they make the playoffs: Yes +180 | No -230
This is a team the books are projecting with a win total Over/Under of 80.5, which is roughly the same projection as last season. That’s also projected to be around the .500 mark again. That’s not going to cut the mustard.
I lean toward NO for the Giants making the playoffs, but risking more than 2 times your potential return is just too expensive.
PASS.
San Francisco Giants win total
Over/Under: 80.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
The Giants added Conforto and Haniger to an offense which ranked 23rd in the majors last season, hitting just .234. San Francisco was 12th in HRs and 11th in runs scored, and adding the 2 corner infielders should have the Giants in the Top 10 in the power categories. That’s obvious improvement.
San Francisco won just 81 games last season, so you have to figure we’ll see at least 2 or 3 more wins. I also like the addition of Manaea to the pitching staff. If he isn’t able to win a rotation job in the spring, he’ll be a nice insurance marker in the event one of the starting 5 goes down. That’s invaluable as the grueling regular season gets into the dog days of summers and beyond.
I still see a healthy amount of losses against the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West, but the Giants will pick up plenty of wins over the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies, teams who will be in the lower half of the league. The interleague schedule sets up nicely, especially at home.
Expect a win total in the low 80’s, so go OVER 80.5 (-105), but be patient, as an Over result isn’t likely to be secured until perhaps the final week of the regular season.
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To win NL West Division
- Los Angeles Dodgers -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- San Diego Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- San Francisco Giants +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200)
- Arizona Diamondbacks +4000 (bet $100 to win $4,000)
- Colorado Rockies +20000 (bet $100 to win $20,000)
San Francisco’s implied probability of winning the NL West is 7.69%, or 12/1 fractional odds.
Barring multiple disastrous injuries for the Dodgers and Padres, it’s unlikely that the Giants will finish anywhere higher, or lower, than 3rd in the NL West. I like the additions of Conforto and Haniger, and I see some slight improvement in the win total. But betting the Giants to win the division outright is foolish, and just throwing money away.
AVOID.
To win National League
Odds: +2000 (bet $100 to win $2000)
The Giants are likely to be hovering around the .500 mark, to perhaps the 84-86 win neighborhood. It’s not going to be good enough to compete in the NL West, it’s not going to likely be good enough to get a Wild Card, and it certainly isn’t going to have San Francisco claiming the pennant.
PASS, and consider a wager on the New York Mets (+350) or San Diego Padres (+450) instead for a much better value.
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