Tag: San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (83-45) meet the Atlanta Braves (69-58) at Truist Park Saturday for the second game of their three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta fought back from an early deficit with a 4-run 7th-inning rally punctuated by a 3-run home run from RF Jorge Soler to key its 6-5 victory in the series opener.

Season series: Braves lead 1-0.

RHP Logan Webb is on the hill for the Giants. Webb is 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA (98 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 18 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 7 K in San Francisco’s 2-1 victory at the Oakland Athletics Sunday.
  • Road splits: 2-3 with a 3.88 ERA (51 IP, 22 ER), 1.26 WHIP and 3.3 K/BB rate in 10 starts.
  • Second half splits: 3-0 with a 1.94 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.01 WHIP and 4.3 K/BB in eight starts.

RHP Huascar Ynoa gets the start for the Braves. Ynoa is 4-3 with a 2.89 ERA (56 IP, 18 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 10 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-1, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 9 K Monday against the New York Yankees.
  • Home splits: 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 0.78 WHIP and 6.5 K/BB in five starts.

Giants at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:32 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Giants -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+150) | Braves +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Braves 6, Giants 4

Money line (ML)

The Braves have been one of the hotter teams in baseball recently. Winners of 10 of their last 12 games, their only losses came against an even hotter New York Yankees squad Monday and Tuesday.

The same could be said about the Giants except their past seven wins have been against the Oakland Athletics and New York Mets – both of which are in the midst of slumps.

Atlanta having more impressive wins recently is part of the reason why I “LEAN” to the BRAVES (-115) for a half unit. The other part is Webb has been a little less effective on the road this year while Ynoa has been more effective in Atlanta.

Also, I’m cool with fading a market that’s betting San Francisco at nearly a 75% clip according to Pregame.com, because the public has come around on the Giants being a legit World Series contender and might be sleeping on the Braves’ recent turnaround.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Braves +1.5 (-200) is too expensive even though San Francisco is 11-20 ATS as a road favorite and Atlanta is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog.

I’d entertain parlaying Atlanta’s run line with another similarly priced favorite or run line if it were south of -170 but Braves +1.5 (-200) is a no-go.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-107) for a half unit because we have a “line freeze” in the betting market. With more than 90% of the cash being wagered on the Under according to Pregame.com the total hasn’t moved much from the 8.5-run opener.

Not only am I willing to fade the market because of the line freeze but also because the Braves are 32-18-3 O/U as home favorites and the Giants are 18-17-1 O/U as road underdogs.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Francisco Giants at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s San Francisco Giants at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (82-44) and New York Mets (61-65) conclude their three-game set Thursday at Citi Field with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco won the first two games of the series including a 3-2 victory Wednesday thanks to yet another late-inning rally with SS Brandon Crawford‘s 2-RBI double in the 7th inning.

Season series: Giants lead 4-1.

LHP Alex Wood is San Francisco’s projected starter. Wood is 10-4 with a 4.11 ERA (120 1/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 22 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-1, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 9 K at the Oakland Athletics Friday.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster (52 PA): 3.74 FIP with a .220 batting average (BA), .260 wOBA, .389 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.2 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Carlos Carrasco makes his sixth start for the Mets. Carrasco is 0-2 with an 8.82 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 23 H, 4 BB and 18 K.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K Friday at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • vs. Giants on the current roster (29 PA): 1.70 FIP with a .111 BA, .163 wOBA, .248 xSLG, 31.0 K% and 84.4 mph EV.

Giants at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:38 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Giants -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+130) | Mets +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Giants 6, Mets 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the GIANTS (-130) for 1 unit because they have an edge in the three most important phases of the game, they’ve been profitable in similar situations and both the pros and the joes are backing San Francisco.

San Francisco’s bullpen has the second-best FIP since the All-Star Game, Wood has a much better FIP than Carrasco on the season and the Giants’ hitters rank sixth in wRC+ while the Mets are 19th.

On top of that, the Giants are 12-5 overall on the road against righty starters as -120 money line or greater favorites and 4-1 in those spots when Wood gets the start.

Since both sides of the market are betting San Francisco according to pregame.com, oddsmakers have moved New York from a slight favorite on the opening line to the current price.

Also, the Mets are just 14-25 overall against lefty starters and the Giants have the second-best road winning percentage in baseball.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because New York is 10-5 ATS as a home underdog and San Francisco is 11-19 ATS as a road favorite so I don’t see much value in laying it with the Giants -1.5 (+130).

For what it’s worth, three of Wood’s four road victories against righty starters as a -119 money line or greater favorite have been by at least 2 runs, San Francisco has the cover rate in MLB at 77-49 ATS and New York has the third-worst cover rate at 54-72 ATS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-110) for a tiny wager – if at all – because San Francisco’s money line is my favorite bet in this Giants-Mets contest.

However, we have an obvious “line freeze” as roughly 75% of the cash is on the Over according to Pregame.com yet the total hasn’t budged from the opener.

More importantly, both teams have played more to the Under in their location-based splits and the Under has cashed in four straight meetings between the two clubs.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Francisco Giants at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Francisco Giants at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (61-64) host the San Francisco Giants (81-44) Wednesday for the second of their three-game set at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco drilled New York 8-0 in the first game of the series as Giants 1B Brandon Belt stood out by going 4-for-5 at the plate with 2 home runs and 3 RBIs.

Season series: Giants lead 3-1.

RHP Johnny Cueto is San Francisco’s projected starter. Cueto is 7-6 with a 3.89 ERA (104 IP, 45 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 19 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 3 K in San Francisco’s 5-4 win at the Milwaukee Brewers Aug. 4.
  • 2021 road splits: 1-3 with a 4.93 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.56 WHIP and 2.7 K/BB in nine starts.
    • vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.96 FIP with a .298 batting average (BA), .356 wOBA, .484 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.6 K% and 89.8 mph exit velocity (EV) in 64 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Taijuan Walker gets the start for the Mets. Walker is 7-8 with a 3.86 ERA (123 2/3 IP, 53 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 24 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-1, 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K Thursday at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • 2021 home splits: 4-2 with a 3.05 ERA (62 IP, 21 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 2.7 K/BB in 11 starts.
    • vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 3.20 FIP with a .271 BA, .337 wOBA, .366 xSLG, 24.1 K% and 89.4 mph EV in 58 PA.

Giants at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Giants +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Giants +1.5 (-205) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Mets 4, Giants 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the METS (-125) for a half unit because they have been very profitable at home with Walker on the mound, and bettors would’ve lost money if they blindly backed the Giants on the road with Cueto getting the start.

For instance, New York is 8-3 at home when Walker starts with a plus-32.4% return on investment (ROI) and an average money line of -130. While San Francisco is 4-5 on the road with Cueto on the bump with a minus-18.4% ROI and an average money line of -111.

However, I can only “lean” toward the Mets because the Giants are 3-0 as road underdogs when Cueto gets the start, and New York’s lineup has been terrible following the All-Star Game.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Mets -1.5 (+155) isn’t a fat enough payout considering New York is 14-31 ATS as a home favorite and San Francisco is 30-4 ATS as a road underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE the UNDER 8.5 (-105) for 1 unit because the Mets are 13-27-3 O/U as a home favorite, and we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market.

According to Pregame.com, more than 60% of the cash is on the Under whereas a slight majority of the action is on the Over. Typically, in sports gambling, it’s wise to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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