The No. 3 seed San Diego State Aztecs (22-7) meet the second-seeded Colorado State Rams (25-4) in a Mountain West semifinal Friday. Tip from the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas is scheduled for midnight ET. Below, we look at the San Diego State vs. Colorado State odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Colorado State, which finished 14-4 in MWC play, snuck into the semifinal with a 53-51 win over the seventh-seeded Utah State Aggies Thursday. G Isaiah Stevens led the Rams with a team-high 14 points, and G David Roddy added 13 points. While the Rams only went 3-for-18 from 3-point land, the Aggies finished 1-for-15 behind the arc.
The Aztecs, who finished with a 13-4 MWC regular-season record, are coming off Thursday’s 53-46 victory over sixth-seeded Fresno State. The winner of this semifinal will face the winner of top-seeded Boise State and No. 4 seed Wyoming in Saturday’s championship game.
Colorado State is 14-14 against the spread (ATS) for the season, including 8-11 ATS in conference games. San Diego State is 16-13 ATS overall with an MWC-best 11-7 ATS mark in conference play.
The Rams’ 75.0 points per game (PPG) ranks 78th in the nation. They are led by Roddy’s 19.3 PPG.
Colorado State is No. 24 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports with San Diego State SU also receiving a few Top-25 votes.
San Diego State vs. Colorado State odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:27 p.m. ET.
- Money line: San Diego State -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Colorado State +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread: San Diego State -1.5 (-115) | Colorado State +1.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 125.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
[tipico]
San Diego State vs. Colorado State odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
San Diego State 63, Colorado State 60
Money line
PASS.
Given all the late-game fouling that typically takes place in the conference tournament games, I’ll take San Diego State to win by more than just 1 point. So, let’s focus on the spread below.
Against the spread
BET SAN DIEGO STATE -1.5 (-115).
San Diego State has been the better covering team all season and Colorado State avoided a near loss to Utah State Thursday. As mentioned, the Aztecs are 16-13 ATS, and have covered 6 of their last 8 games.
San Diego State is 2-0 ATS vs. Colorado State this season as well, covering as a 2.5-point home favorite in a 30-point win Jan. 8, and as a 4-point road underdog in a 1-point loss Feb. 4.
CSU hasn’t been a great covering team, failing to cover as a 3.5-point favorite against Utah State Thursday. The Rams are just 1-4 ATS over their last 5 games.
The Rams also rank 14th in the nation in field-goal percentage, which plays into the Aztecs’ strength as they rank fourth in opponents’ field-goal percentage, holding opponents to 37.9% from the field.
Combine it all, and I’ll take SDSU to win and cover.
Over/Under
LEAN to the UNDER 125.5 (-115).
This is a low total, but if there’s one thing both teams have been good at this season, it’s been cashing Under tickets. CSU is 10-18 O/U, while SDSU is 12-17 O/U.
Considering San Diego State’s elite defense and the fact that Colorado State ranks 314th in possessions per game, I expect a slow-paced, grind-it-out type game.
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