The San Diego Padres won 89 games last season, and they made the postseason for the 2nd time in the last 3 seasons. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that after a Wild-Card series win over the New York Mets, and a 3-1 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, the Padres were rolled in 5 games by the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS. It showed the Padres just how much more it needed to get over the hump, and San Diego went on an offseason spending spree to address that.
The Padres are no longer content just making the playoffs, they want to win the whole ball of wax. Let’s analyze the San Diego Padres’ World Series odds, along with their projected win total, playoff, division and NL odds as we make our expert MLB picks and predictions.
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San Diego Padres World Series odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, March 24, at 1:26 a.m. ET.
Odds: +900 (bet $100 to win $900)
San Diego is tied with 3 teams for the 4th-shortest odds to win it all. The Houston Astros (+600) are the favorites, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers (+700), New York Mets (+700) and New York Yankees (+750).
At +900, San Diego has an implied probability of winning the World Series of 10.0% or 9/1 fractional odds.
The Oakland A’s have the longest odds at +40000 with the Washington Nationals next at +30000.
The Padres went out and signed free-agent SS Xander Bogaerts to a 11-year, $280 million contract, immediately upgrading the offense. Pairing Bogaerts with 3B Manny Machado, OF Juan Soto and OF Fernando Tatis Jr. signals that the Padres are not only going for it all this season, but they’re planning on sticking around as a contender for many years to come.
Tatis is suspended until mid-April, but the offense will be more than able to produce big numbers until his return.
The Padres added some tremendous depth pieces, too, which might have been missed following the Bogaerts addition. Veteran DH Nelson Cruz was added on a 1-year deal, and RHP Michael Wacha joined a rotation already featuring RHPs Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Seth Lugo, as well as LHP Blake Snell. Second-baseman Rougned Odor, LHP Cole Hamels and RHP Julio Teheran are also looking to resurrect their careers.
I like the Padres a lot at +900. This is an All-Star team with very few holes and plenty of depth in the event of injuries or further suspensions.
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San Diego Padres playoff odds
Will they make the playoffs: Yes -429 | No +320
It’s not that I don’t think the Padres will miss the playoffs. I very much believe this is a postseason-bound team, and the books feel strongly about that, too. AVOID, as there is just never a reason to risk more than 4 times your potential return on a singular bet, especially a wager which you must tie up money for several months just for a pittance in return.
San Diego Padres win total
Over/Under: 93.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
The Padres ended up with 89 victories last season, 22 games behind the 1st-place Los Angeles Dodgers. You can expect the gap to be closed significantly as San Diego is going to bash teams into submission all season long.
It’s going to be an amazing Southern California battle for 1st place, with some exhilarating games, and exuberant crowds, similar to the 1980s and early 1990s when Padres baseball was at its previous apex.
The Padres also have home interleague series scheduled against the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals, which are very favorable, as well as a road set against the lowly Oakland Athletics. Even if the talent was the same as 2022, you could expect a bump in wins on that schedule fact alone.
But top to bottom, the Padres have an outstanding lineup mix of All-Stars, experienced veterans and solid contributors, and the rotation, top to bottom, might be one of the best in the league. San Diego has even toyed with the idea of a 6-man rotation, using RHP Nick Martinez in the mix, which would give their big arms even more rest, and perhaps allow them to go deeper into games.
What’s more, 1B Jake Cronenworth has had a blazing-hot spring, which is not what the rest of the league needs with the Big Four already in place. It’s going be a fun season of partying in the Gaslamp Quarter this season, and this could easily be a 100+ win team.
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To win NL West Division
- Los Angeles Dodgers -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- San Diego Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- San Francisco Giants +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200)
- Arizona Diamondbacks +4000 (bet $100 to win $4,000)
- Colorado Rockies +20000 (bet $100 to win $20,000)
San Diego’s implied probability of winning the NL West is 44.44%, or 5/4 fractional odds.
At plus-money, the Padres are a better value play than taking the slightly-favored Dodgers.
Both teams are phenomenal, and this is going to be a super-fun race all summer long. The pitching staff for the Dodgers is sick, too, but San Diego’s lineup is arguably better — much better.
I’d much rather play San Diego to win the NL West than Los Angeles.
To win National League
Odds: +425 (bet $100 to win $425)
Sign me up. The Padres represent an outstanding value for a chance to more than multiply your initial wager more than 4 times. Good things come to those who wait.
I can’t repeat enough how this lineup and rotation has an All-Star feel. In fact, if you were just to draft all Padres on a fantasy team, you’d probably win your championship, too.
The New York Mets made some amazing additions this offseason, while the Dodgers added RHP Noah Syndergaard to an already deep rotation. But at this price, the Padres represent the best value of the Top 4 teams in the NL.
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