The San Diego Padres (71-62) visit Chase Field Wednesday for the conclusion of their three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks (44-90). First pitch is scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego is attempting the series sweep after beating Arizona in the first two games by a combined score of 10-5.
The Padres have won three of their last four games and are tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the second NL Wild Card berth.
Season series: Padres 11-7.
RHP Yu Darvish is San Diego’s projected starter. Darvish is 7-8 with a 3.80 ERA (137 1/3 IP, 58 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 24 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-0, with 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K Thursday against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Darvish is 0-1 with a 5.31 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.33 WHIP and 9.7 K/BB in four starts against Arizona.
- vs. Diamondbacks on the current roster (112 PA): 3.52 FIP with a .279 batting average (BA), .352 wOBA, .398 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 34.8 K% and 88.6 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Luke Weaver makes the start for the D-Backs. Weaver is 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA (40 IP, 20 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in eight starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 3 K in Arizona’s 3-0 loss against the Washington Nationals May 16.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (78 PA): 5.31 FIP with a .260 BA, .356 wOBA, .531 xSLG, 26.9 K% and 89.6 mph EV.
Padres at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:11 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -2.5 (+105) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Padres 5, Diamondbacks 2
Money line (ML)
PASS even though the Padres have an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting pitching, bullpen pitching and hitting) because Darvish has been awful since the “spider tack” policy went into effect June 21.
Darvish is 1-6 with a 5.74 ERA (53 1/3 IP, 34 ER), .794 opponent’s OPS and 13 home runs given up in 10 starts since June 21. That said, Weaver is 0-4 with a 5.23 ERA in his last five starts against San Diego dating to 2019 and Arizona’s bullpen ranks in the bottom 10 of xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the ALTERNATE RUN LINE PADRES -1.5 (-135) for a tiny wager because of San Diego’s aforementioned edges and nine of the Padres’ 11 wins over Arizona were by at least 2 runs.
However, these lineups are neck-and-neck in WAR following the All-Star Game and both rank near each other in the bottom 10 of the majors in several advanced hitting metrics.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a half unit because six of Arizona’s eight games with Weaver on the mound have totaled less than 8.5 runs and Darvish’s best start since June 21 was his Aug. 7 outing against the D-Backs.
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